Kilmarnock vs Hearts Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Rugby Park Sat, 14 Mar - 8:00 PM
Premiership
Kilmarnock KIL
1 Winner 0
Hearts Hearts
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 8:00 PM
Michael Schjönning-Larsen - 17'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Kilmarnock 1–0 Hearts. The result saw Kilmarnock take the points. Kilmarnock showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 38%–62%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kilmarnock showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Dickinson
D. Dickinson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. McGeachie
D. McGeachie
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
J. Bell
J. Bell
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
S. Murdoch
S. Murdoch
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
VS
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
0.68
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.08
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 64 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 D
Celtic Rank: 78 L
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 15 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kilmarnock
19.64%
Draw
25.63%
Away Hearts
54.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.42
71.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kilmarnock
Hearts
Power Score
55.42
71.8
League Position
11
1
Global Rank
593
149

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kilmarnock Hearts

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.32
28.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.95
36.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kilmarnock +0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Hearts -0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Hearts
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kilmarnock
vs
Hearts
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kilmarnock Hearts
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Hearts
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Kilmarnock
Hearts
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kilmarnock KIL Home
13 matches
Hearts Hearts Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
5
Draws
5
5
Losses
3
Goals
12
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
12
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:43:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
K. Roos
Netherlands
13 K. Roos
J. Brandon
Scotland
2 J. Brandon
G. Stanger
New Zealand
14 G. Stanger
R. Deas
Scotland
6 (C) R. Deas
M. Schjonning-Larsen
Substitution
Estonia
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
D. Watson
Substitution
Scotland
12 D. Watson
A. Tshibola
Substitution
DR Congo
36 A. Tshibola
L. Polworth
Scotland
31 L. Polworth
F. Curtis
Substitution
Scotland
52 F. Curtis
J. Hugill
Substitution
England
44 J. Hugill
G. Kiltie
Substitution
Scotland
11 G. Kiltie
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
H. Milne
Substitution
Scotland
18 H. Milne
J. Mccart
Scotland
5 J. Mccart
C. Halkett
Scotland
4 (C) C. Halkett
M. Steinwender
Substitution
Austria
15 M. Steinwender
M. Leonard
Scotland
49 M. Leonard
B. Spittal
Substitution
Scotland
16 B. Spittal
T. Magnússon
Substitution
Iceland
22 T. Magnússon
A. Kiziridis
Substitution
Greece
89 A. Kiziridis
C. Soares Braga
Portugal
10 C. Soares Braga
P. Kabore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
11 P. Kabore

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Stadium
Rugby Park
Capacity
18128
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Dickinson
David McGeachie
Jonathan Bell
S. Murdoch

Statistics

Possession
KIL
43%
Hearts
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 7
56 Dangerous attacks 59
38 Possession 62
2 Corners 9
14 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Substitutions 6
98 Ball Safe 99
2 Injuries 0
21 Dribble Attempts 18
30 Successful Headers 38
76 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Hit Woodwork 0
27 Throwins 32
11 Goal Kicks 8
16 Successful Dribbles 9

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
102 Attacks 141

Possession

68 Long Passes 62
23 Successful Long Passes 26
214 Successful Passes 379
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
6 Key Passes 11
316 Passes 499
68 Successful Passes Percentage 76

Defensive

20 Tackles 13
7 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 3

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 11
17 Total Crosses 32

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

13
Kelle Roos
Kelle Roos Goalkeeper
7.4
2
Jamie Brandon
Jamie Brandon Defender
7
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas (C) Defender
6.75
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
7.02
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
7.32
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson
Defender70'
6.41
12
David Watson
David Watson Midfielder
6.65
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery
Midfielder65'
6.44
31
Liam Polworth
Liam Polworth Midfielder
6.79
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
7.24
5
Lewis Mayo
Lewis Mayo
Defender89'
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Midfielder
7.74
22
Jack Thomson
Jack Thomson
Midfielder83'
6.66
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Attacker
6.96
7
Rory McKenzie
Rory McKenzie
Midfielder70'
6.76
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
7.13
23
Marley Watkins
Marley Watkins
Attacker83'
6.45
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
6.74
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett (C) Defender
7.05
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart Defender
6.79
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Defender
6.55
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena
Defender56'
6.75
18
Harry Milne
Harry Milne Defender
6.86
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota
Attacker81'
6.56
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Midfielder
7.2
7
Elton Kabangu
Elton Kabangu
Attacker88'
22
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Tómas Bent Magnússon Midfielder
6.81
31
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee
Midfielder35'
6.4
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Midfielder
6.96
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
6.64
2
Frankie Kent
Frankie Kent
Defender87'
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
7.18
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore Attacker
6.54
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov
Midfielder46'
6.3

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Islam Chesnokov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Liam Polworth
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Lewis Mayo → Aaron Tshibola
12th Substitution
89'
88'
Event
Elton Kabangu → Blair Spittal
11th Substitution
87'
Event
Frankie Kent → Alexandros Kyziridis
10th Substitution
Event
Marley Watkins → Joe Hugill
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Jack Thomson → Findlay Curtis
8th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Sabah Kerjota → Harry Milne
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Craig Halkett
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Robbie Deas
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
75'
Event
Dominic Thompson → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Rory McKenzie → Greg Kiltie
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Tom Lowery → David Watson
4th Substitution
65'
56'
Event
Jordi Altena → Michael Steinwender
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Islam Chesnokov → Pierre Landry Kabore
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Oisin McEntee → Tómas Bent Magnússon
1st Substitution
Event
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
17'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Polworth from Kilmarnock received a yellow card in the 91st minute.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Islam Chesnokov from Heart of Midlothian received a yellow card in the 95th minute.
89
Substitution Substitution
Lewis Mayo of Kilmarnock is being substituted in the 89th minute.
88
Substitution Substitution
Frankie Kent has been substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 88th minute.
87
Substitution Substitution
Elton Kabangu is being substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 88th minute.
83
Update Update
Marley Watkins has been replaced for Kilmarnock in the 83rd minute.
83
Substitution Substitution
Shaun Thomson from Kilmarnock is being substituted in the 83rd minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution at the 81st minute: Sabah Kerjota is being replaced by a new player for Heart of Midlothian.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Craig Halkett of Heart of Midlothian received a yellow card in the 76th minute.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Robbie Deas from Kilmarnock received a yellow card in the 75th minute.
70
Substitution Substitution
Rory McKenzie of Kilmarnock is being substituted in the 70th minute.
70
Substitution Substitution
Dominic Thompson of Kilmarnock has been substituted in the 70th minute.
65
Substitution Substitution
Tom Lowery of Kilmarnock has been substituted in the 65th minute.
56
Substitution Substitution
Jordi Altena from Heart of Midlothian is being substituted in the 56th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Islam Chesnokov is being substituted for Heart of Midlothian at the 45-minute mark.
35
Substitution Substitution
Oisin McEntee of Heart of Midlothian is being substituted in the 35th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Kilmarnock exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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