Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı Sat, 11 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kayserispor KAY
0 Winner 4
Fenerbahçe FEN
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
N'Golo Kanté - 45+1'
Talisca - 60', 87'
Dorgeles Nene - 62'

CONTEXT

The match between Kayserispor and Fenerbahce is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-4 to the visitors. Fenerbahce delivered a dominant display that produced a significant deviation in their favor from pre-match expectations, where they had been viewed as the stronger side likely to prevail. The visitors led 1-0 at half-time and added three more goals after the break, securing a comprehensive victory that reflected their status as the clear favorite beforehand. Kayserispor held 39 percent possession while Fenerbahce controlled 61 percent, allowing the away team to dictate the flow of the contest. With no xG data recorded, the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout. The outcome proved fully consistent with the pre-match projection for a Fenerbahce success, and no red cards or major disruptive events altered the course of play. Overall the result underlined the gap between the two sides on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Çiçek
S. Çiçek
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
A. Usta
A. Usta
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
A. Yılmaz
A. Yılmaz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
F. Tokail
F. Tokail
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Kayserispor E. Moe
E. Moe
VS
Fenerbahçe D. Tedesco
D. Tedesco
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.35
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: L
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: W
Samsunspor Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: L
Gençlerbirliği Rank: D
Antalyaspor Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Beşiktaş Rank: W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: L
Samsunspor Rank: W
Antalyaspor Rank: D
Kasımpaşa Rank: D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 7 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kayserispor
15.3%
Draw
20.98%
Away Fenerbahçe
63.72%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kayserispor
+14.81%
Draw
+19.07%
Fenerbahçe
-33.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.31
42.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kayserispor
Fenerbahçe
Power Score
15.31
42.01
League Position
16
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kayserispor Fenerbahçe

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fenerbahçe
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.49
32.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.62
34.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kayserispor +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Fenerbahçe -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kayserispor
Fenerbahçe
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fenerbahçe
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kayserispor Fenerbahçe
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kayserispor Fenerbahçe
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kayserispor
Fenerbahçe
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kayserispor
vs
Fenerbahçe
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kayserispor Fenerbahçe
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kayserispor 0.22
Fenerbahçe 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kayserispor Fenerbahçe
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kayserispor 0.11
Fenerbahçe 0.00
Kayserispor
Fenerbahçe
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FEN had peak pressure around 48'.
  • FEN started the game with stronger pressure.
KAY Pressure FEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FEN reached the top pressure at 48' (93.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kayserispor KAY Home
39 matches
Fenerbahçe FEN Away
Match Record
8
Wins
24
7
Draws
7
24
Losses
8
Goals
47
Goals Scored
88
88
Goals Conceded
47
-41
Goal Difference
+41
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:11:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Bayazit
Netherlands
25 B. Bayazit
J. Katongo
Substitution
England
2 J. Katongo
S. Güler
Germany
6 S. Güler
S. Denswil
Suriname
4 S. Denswil
J. Brenet
Netherlands
30 J. Brenet
Y. Aït Bennasser
Substitution
Morocco
15 Y. Aït Bennasser
D. Makarov
Substitution
Russia
18 D. Makarov
F. Soyalp
Turkey
33 F. Soyalp
D. Toköz
Substitution
Turkey
24 D. Toköz
M. Nunes Cardoso
Portugal
7 M. Nunes Cardoso
F. Chalov
Substitution
Russia
63 F. Chalov
E. Santana de Moraes
Brazil
31 E. Santana de Moraes
A. Brown
England
3 A. Brown
J. Oosterwolde
Netherlands
24 J. Oosterwolde
M. Škriniar
Substitution
Slovakia
37 M. Škriniar
N. Cabral Semedo
Substitution
Portugal
27 N. Cabral Semedo
M. Guendouzi Olié
France
6 M. Guendouzi Olié
N. Kanté
Substitution
France
17 N. Kanté
M. Aktürkoğlu
Turkey
9 M. Aktürkoğlu
A. Souza Conceição
Brazil
94 A. Souza Conceição
N. Dorgeles
Substitution
Mali
45 N. Dorgeles
S. Cherif
Substitution
France
26 S. Cherif

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı
Capacity
32864
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samet Çiçek
Anıl Usta
A. Yılmaz
Fatih Tokail

Statistics

Possession
KAY
42%
FEN
58%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 8
49 Dangerous attacks 38
39 Possession 61
4 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 19
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 8
21 Throwins 12
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
7 Successful Headers 7
79 Ball Safe 86
5 Dribble Attempts 18
2 Successful Dribbles 11
7 Goal Attempts 10
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Injuries 2
0 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

76 Attacks 120

Possession

54 Long Passes 42
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
357 Passes 555
280 Successful Passes 490
31 Successful Long Passes 20
78 Successful Passes Percentage 88
9 Key Passes 10

Defensive

13 Tackles 7
6 Interceptions 7
3 Saves 3

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 4
17 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

19 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : A. Yılmaz

Starting XI ▼

25
Bilal Bayazıt
Bilal Bayazıt Goalkeeper
2
J. Katongo
J. Katongo Defender
20
Carlos Mané
Carlos Mané
Midfielder63'
4
Stefano Denswil
Stefano Denswil Defender
6
Semih Güler
Semih Güler Defender
30
Joshua Brenet
Joshua Brenet Defender
7
Miguel Cardoso
Miguel Cardoso Midfielder
15
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Youssef Aït Bennasser Midfielder
61
Görkem Sağlam
Görkem Sağlam
Midfielder63'
18
Denis Makarov
Denis Makarov Midfielder
28
Ramazan Civelek
Ramazan Civelek
Midfielder46'
24
Dorukhan Toköz
Dorukhan Toköz Midfielder
8
László Bénes
László Bénes
Midfielder63'
33
Furkan Soyalp
Furkan Soyalp Midfielder
63
Fedor Chalov
Fedor Chalov Attacker
9
German Onugkha
German Onugkha
Attacker82'
Referee : A. Yılmaz

Starting XI ▼

31
Ederson
Ederson Goalkeeper
3
Archie Brown
Archie Brown Defender
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Jayden Oosterwolde Defender
27
Nélson Semedo
Nélson Semedo Defender
18
Mert Müldür
Mert Müldür
Defender68'
37
Milan Škriniar
Milan Škriniar Defender
4
Çağlar Söyüncü
Çağlar Söyüncü
Defender46'
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
Mattéo Guendouzi Midfielder
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Midfielder
17
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
7
Fred
Fred
Midfielder75'
45
Dorgeles Nene
Dorgeles Nene Midfielder
70
Oğuz Aydın
Oğuz Aydın
Attacker71'
94
Talisca
Talisca Midfielder
2
26
Sidiki Chérif
Sidiki Chérif Attacker
20
Anthony Musaba
Anthony Musaba
Attacker68'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Talisca
Header / 4th Goal
Event
German Onugkha → Fedor Chalov
10th Substitution
82'
75'
Event
Fred → N'Golo Kanté
9th Substitution
71'
Event
Oğuz Aydın → Dorgeles Nene
8th Substitution
68'
Event
Mert Müldür → Nélson Semedo
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Anthony Musaba → Sidiki Chérif
7th Substitution
Event
Görkem Sağlam
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
67'
Event
László Bénes → Dorukhan Toköz
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Carlos Mané → J. Katongo
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Görkem Sağlam → Youssef Aït Bennasser
5th Substitution
63'
62'
Event
Dorgeles Nene
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
60'
Event
Talisca
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
46'
Event
Ramazan Civelek → Denis Makarov
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Çağlar Söyüncü → Milan Škriniar
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
N'Golo Kanté
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
35'
Event
Fred
6th Yellowcard
33'
Event
Ederson
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Denis Makarov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
26'
Event
Jayden Oosterwolde
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fenerbahçe exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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