Karpaty vs Oleksandria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Ukrajina Sat, 11 Apr - 10:00 AM
Premier League
Karpaty Karpaty
2 Winner 0
Oleksandria Oleksandria
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 10:00 AM
Round 23 Regular Season
Yan Kostenko - 76'
Jean Pedroso - 90+2'
Goal
|
Denys Miroshnichenko 73' Red Card
|
Red Card Mykola Ogarkov 87'

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Karpaty recording a 2-0 victory over Oleksandria at full time after a goalless first half. Pre-match expectations had Karpaty as favorites with a 55.5 percent likelihood of winning, against 25.4 percent for the draw and 19.1 percent for an Oleksandria success. The result represented a significant deviation for Karpaty, who delivered a stronger performance than anticipated and claimed all three points as the clearly superior side on the day. Karpaty held 59 percent possession to Oleksandria’s 41 percent but both teams were reduced to ten players after receiving a red card each. These dismissals created a red-card distortion that shaped second-half play, yet the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations. No expected-goals data was available, preventing any assessment of consistency with xG. Overall the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection despite the noted deviation, as Karpaty converted their territorial edge into a clean-sheet win once the numerical changes took effect. The result underlined their status as the stronger team across the full contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Karpaty showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Berkut
O. Berkut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.49
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
V. Matyash
V. Matyash
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.49
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Nikolai Balakin
Nikolai Balakin
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.49
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
VS
Oleksandria V. Sharan
V. Sharan
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.43
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: W
SK Poltava Rank: W
Kudrivka Rank: D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: D
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Karpaty
55.53%
Draw
25.4%
Away Oleksandria
19.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Karpaty
-38.09%
Draw
+19.78%
Oleksandria
+18.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.34
11.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Karpaty
Oleksandria
Power Score
25.34
11.8
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Karpaty Oleksandria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
3.39
0.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
0.00
3.39
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Karpaty +0.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Oleksandria -0.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Karpaty
Oleksandria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Karpaty Oleksandria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Karpaty Oleksandria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Karpaty
Oleksandria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Karpaty
vs
Oleksandria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Karpaty Oleksandria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Karpaty —
Oleksandria —
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Karpaty Oleksandria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Karpaty 0.00
Oleksandria —
Karpaty
Oleksandria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Oleksandria had peak pressure around 13'.
  • Oleksandria started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Karpaty Pressure Oleksandria Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Oleksandria reached the top pressure at 13' (43.30).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Karpaty Karpaty Home
17 matches
Oleksandria Oleksandria Away
Match Record
3
Wins
9
5
Draws
5
9
Losses
3
Goals
16
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
16
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:01:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
D. Miroshnichenko
Ukraine
11 D. Miroshnichenko
V. Adamyuk
Ukraine
3 V. Adamyuk
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
M. Sapuga
Substitution
Ukraine
20 M. Sapuga
P. Fernandes Pereira
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Fernandes Pereira
A. Chachua
Substitution
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
B. Pereira da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
37 B. Pereira da Silva
Y. Kostenko
Substitution
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
B. Faal
Gambia
99 B. Faal
N. Makarenko
72 N. Makarenko
M. Ogarkov
Ukraine
23 M. Ogarkov
A. Bol
Ukraine
86 A. Bol
M. Ferreira Campos
Portugal
26 M. Ferreira Campos
B. Butko
Substitution
Ukraine
91 B. Butko
D. Vashchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
20 D. Vashchenko
P. Yade
Senegal
37 P. Yade
D. Myshnov
Substitution
Ukraine
9 D. Myshnov
M. Ferreira Guimarães
Substitution
49 M. Ferreira Guimarães
T. Cara
Substitution
Albania
27 T. Cara
B. Castillo Rosendo
Venezuela
99 B. Castillo Rosendo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Ukrajina
Capacity
28051
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksandr Berkut
Viktor Matyash
Nikolai Balakin

Statistics

Possession
Karpaty
57%
Oleksandria
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Shots 4
59 Possession 41
6 Corners 7
7 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0

Attacking

2 Attacks 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Nikolai Balakin

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Volodymyr Adamyuk
Volodymyr Adamyuk Defender
6.5
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko Defender
5.93
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
6.5
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
6.5
7
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor Midfielder
6.5
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain
Midfielder62'
6.61
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
6.5
47
Jean Pedroso
Jean Pedroso
Defender86'
6.69
20
Marko Sapuga
Marko Sapuga Midfielder
6.45
18
Eriki
Eriki
Midfielder63'
6.5
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
6.69
19
Yaroslav Karabin
Yaroslav Karabin
Midfielder86'
37
Bruninho
Bruninho Midfielder
6.45
77
Oleksiy Sych
Oleksiy Sych
Defender77'
6.5
99
Baboucarr Faal
Baboucarr Faal Attacker
6.59
Referee : Nikolai Balakin

Starting XI ▼

72
Nazar Makarenko
Nazar Makarenko Goalkeeper
5.88
23
Mykola Ogarkov
Mykola Ogarkov Defender
6.17
26
Miguel Campos
Miguel Campos Defender
6.05
86
Anton Bol
Anton Bol Defender
6.05
91
Bogdan Butko
Bogdan Butko Defender
6.26
67
Mauro Rodrigues
Mauro Rodrigues
Midfielder80'
6.37
9
Dmytro Myshnyov
Dmytro Myshnyov Midfielder
6.37
11
Artem Shulyanskyi
Artem Shulyanskyi
Midfielder80'
6.37
20
Daniil Vashchenko
Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
6.33
24
Hussayn Touati
Hussayn Touati
Midfielder80'
6.37
27
Tedi Cara
Tedi Cara Midfielder
6.5
17
Artur Andreichyk
Artur Andreichyk
Defender56'
6.05
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Papa Ndiaga Yade Midfielder
6.27
49
Mateus Amaral
Mateus Amaral Midfielder
6.5
10
Sergiy Buletsa
Sergiy Buletsa
Midfielder69'
6.27
99
Bryan Castillo
Bryan Castillo Attacker
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jean Pedroso
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+2'
87'
Event
Mykola Ogarkov
2nd Redcard
Event
Jean Pedroso → Ambrosiy Chachua
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Yaroslav Karabin → Yan Kostenko
9th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Mauro Rodrigues → Bogdan Butko
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Artem Shulyanskyi → Dmytro Myshnyov
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Hussayn Touati → Daniil Vashchenko
8th Substitution
Event
Oleksiy Sych → Bruninho
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Yan Kostenko
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
76'
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko
Second Yellow Card / 1st Redcard
73'
69'
Event
Sergiy Buletsa → Mateus Amaral
4th Substitution
Event
Eriki → Marko Sapuga
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Xeber Alkain → Paulo Vitor
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Bruninho
4th Yellowcard
56'
56'
Event
Artur Andreichyk → Tedi Cara
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko
2nd Yellowcard
45+1'
45+1'
Event
Daniil Vashchenko
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Marko Sapuga
1st Yellowcard
41'
Event
5th Yellowcard
41'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Karpaty exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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