Kalmar vs Västerås SK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Guldfågeln Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 12:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Kalmar KAL
0 Winner 1
Västerås SK Västerås SK
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
|
Goal
Z. Råvik - 11' (Own Goal)
|
Second yellow card Jonathan Ring 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match between Kalmar and Västerås SK has finished with a 0-1 full-time score in favor of the visitors. Västerås SK took the lead early, going into half-time up 0-1, and successfully held on for the win. This outcome did not align with the pre-match market, which favored Kalmar as the stronger side with a 42.8% win probability, leaving the visitors with just a 28.7% chance. Therefore, Västerås SK's victory represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Despite the loss, home side Kalmar controlled the tempo, commanding 58% of the possession compared to Västerås SK's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to state if the final outcome was consistent with the underlying offensive metrics. However, overall efficiency shifts were deemed to be in line with standard play. The game featured a notable red card distortion that heavily altered the second-half dynamics. Västerås SK had a player sent off, receiving the only red card of the match. Despite playing at a numerical disadvantage, the away side defended resolutely against Kalmar's heavy possession to hold their narrow lead and secure an unexpected victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Västerås SK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Maqedonci
G. Maqedonci
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.29
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
M. Lundgren
M. Lundgren
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.29
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
N. Nyberg
N. Nyberg
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.29
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
A. Aganovic
A. Aganovic
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.29
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Kalmar T. Koskela
T. Koskela
VS
Västerås SK A. Rubin
A. Rubin
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kalmar
42.75%
Draw
28.52%
Away Västerås SK
28.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
38.28
38.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kalmar
Västerås SK
Power Score
38.28
38.13
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
762
839

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kalmar — Opponent-weighted form score
Västerås SK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kalmar Västerås SK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kalmar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Västerås SK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kalmar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Västerås SK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.64
13.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.45
31.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kalmar +1.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Västerås SK -1.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kalmar
Västerås SK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kalmar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Västerås SK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kalmar Västerås SK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kalmar Västerås SK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kalmar
Västerås SK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kalmar
vs
Västerås SK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kalmar Västerås SK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kalmar 0.34
Västerås SK 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kalmar Västerås SK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kalmar 0.03
Västerås SK 0.00
Kalmar
Västerås SK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kalmar KAL Home
2 matches
Västerås SK Västerås SK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
1
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
J. Kindberg
Sweden
30 J. Kindberg
R. Jansson
Finland
4 R. Jansson
A. Dari
Substitution
Morocco
20 A. Dari
L. Råvik
12 L. Råvik
V. Larsson
Sweden
2 V. Larsson
M. Hallberg
Substitution
Sweden
5 M. Hallberg
N. Chourak
Substitution
Netherlands
7 N. Chourak
C. Rosenquist
13 C. Rosenquist
V. Tyren
Sweden
6 V. Tyren
M. Söderbäck
Substitution
Finland
10 M. Söderbäck
C. Sagoe Junior
England
24 C. Sagoe Junior
E. Jäger
Sweden
34 E. Jäger
V. Wernersson
Substitution
Sweden
21 V. Wernersson
F. Nsabiyumva
Burundi
18 F. Nsabiyumva
H. Magnusson
Sweden
2 H. Magnusson
M. Baggesen
Substitution
Denmark
3 M. Baggesen
J. Ring
Sweden
10 J. Ring
M. Diagne
Senegal
8 M. Diagne
S. Gefvert
Sweden
11 S. Gefvert
K. Gunnarsson
Substitution
Sweden
5 K. Gunnarsson
M. Riis Ladefoged
Substitution
Denmark
9 M. Riis Ladefoged
A. Sountonoma Taonsa
Ivory Coast
17 A. Sountonoma Taonsa

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Guldfågeln Arena
Capacity
12500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Granit Maqedonci
Marcus Lundgren
Niklas Nyberg
Adi Aganovic

Statistics

Possession
KAL
56%
Västerås SK
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Shots 2
47 Dangerous attacks 33
58 Possession 42
14 Corners 5
20 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Dribble Attempts 6
7 Successful Dribbles 6
4 Substitutions 4
7 Goal Attempts 4
59 Ball Safe 52
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
6 Goal Kicks 11
18 Throwins 12

Attacking

95 Attacks 77

Possession

22 Long Passes 22
76 Successful Passes Percentage 74
339 Successful Passes 237
449 Passes 326
10 Key Passes 4

Defensive

3 Saves 3
2 Interceptions 11
10 Tackles 18
57 Duels Won 57

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Granit Maqedonci

Starting XI ▼

30
J. Kindberg
J. Kindberg Goalkeeper
2
Victor Larsson
Victor Larsson Defender
4
R. Jansson
R. Jansson Defender
12
Z. Råvik
Z. Råvik Defender
20
Achraf Dari
Achraf Dari Defender
39
L. Sætra
L. Sætra
Defender75'
5
M. Hallberg
M. Hallberg Midfielder
23
R. Gojani
R. Gojani
Midfielder61'
6
V. Tyren
V. Tyren Midfielder
7
N. Chourak
N. Chourak Midfielder
3
S. Øverby
S. Øverby
Defender75'
10
Marius Söderbäck
Marius Söderbäck Midfielder
70
Emeka Nnamani
Emeka Nnamani
Attacker61'
13
C. Rosenquist
C. Rosenquist Midfielder
24
Charles Sagoe Jr
Charles Sagoe Jr Attacker
Referee : Granit Maqedonci

Starting XI ▼

34
Elis Jäger
Elis Jäger Goalkeeper
2
Herman Magnusson
Herman Magnusson Defender
18
Frédéric Nsabiyumva
Frédéric Nsabiyumva Defender
21
Victor Wernersson
Victor Wernersson Defender
15
Jonathan Karlsson
Jonathan Karlsson
Defender86'
3
Marcus Baggesen
Marcus Baggesen Midfielder
4
Philip Bonde
Philip Bonde
Defender74'
8
Mamadou Diagne
Mamadou Diagne Midfielder
10
Jonathan Ring
Jonathan Ring Midfielder
11
Simon Gefvert
Simon Gefvert Midfielder
5
Karl Gunnarsson
Karl Gunnarsson Attacker
14
I. Lushaku
I. Lushaku
Midfielder75'
9
Mikkel Ladefoged
Mikkel Ladefoged Attacker
7
Abdelrahman Boudah
Abdelrahman Boudah
Attacker75'
17
Axel Sountonoma Taonsa
Axel Sountonoma Taonsa Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Jonathan Ring
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
86'
Event
Jonathan Karlsson → Victor Wernersson
8th Substitution
Event
S. Øverby → N. Chourak
6th Substitution
75'
Event
L. Sætra → Achraf Dari
7th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Abdelrahman Boudah → Mikkel Ladefoged
4th Substitution
75'
Event
I. Lushaku → Karl Gunnarsson
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Philip Bonde → Marcus Baggesen
3rd Substitution
Event
Emeka Nnamani → Marius Söderbäck
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
R. Gojani → M. Hallberg
1st Substitution
61'
Event
C. Rosenquist
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
57'
Event
Jonathan Ring
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
11'
Event
Z. Råvik
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
6'
Event
Herman Magnusson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Västerås SK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Allsvenskan View all league clusters