Juve Stabia vs Cesena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti Sat, 11 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Juve Stabia JUV
2 Winner 0
Cesena CES
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Marco Varnier - 52'
Lorenzo Carissoni - 63'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Juve Stabia and Cesena is finished, ending 2-0 to the home side. The teams went into halftime level at 0-0, but Juve Stabia improved after the break to score twice and claim a straightforward victory. Possession was shared evenly at 50 percent each, though expected goals data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Pre-match expectations strongly favored Juve Stabia, and the result showed only minimal deviation in that direction. Cesena entered as the stronger team on paper yet could not convert that edge, leaving the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the result proved consistent with how the contest was anticipated to unfold. No red cards were issued to either side, so disciplinary events played no role in the final margin. Overall the contest followed a logical path once the second half adjustments arrived, confirming Juve Stabia’s superiority on the day without major surprises.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Juve Stabia showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Garzelli
D. Garzelli
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
E. Scarpa
E. Scarpa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
M. Ferrieri Caputi
M. Ferrieri Caputi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
A. Arena
A. Arena
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
VS
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: L
Spezia Rank: W
Palermo Rank: D
Carrarese Rank: D
Mantova Rank: L
Sampdoria Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: D
Catanzaro Rank: W
Mantova Rank: L
Frosinone Rank: D
Modena Rank: D
Monza Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juve Stabia
97.84%
Draw
1.92%
Away Cesena
0.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.52
22.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juve Stabia
Cesena
Power Score
21.52
22.41
League Position
7
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juve Stabia Cesena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.10
36.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.30
18.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juve Stabia -1.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Cesena +1.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Cesena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juve Stabia Cesena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juve Stabia Cesena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Cesena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Juve Stabia
vs
Cesena
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Juve Stabia Cesena
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Juve Stabia 0.17
Cesena 0.37
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Juve Stabia Cesena
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Juve Stabia 0.00
Cesena 0.05
Juve Stabia
Cesena
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CES had peak pressure around 79'.
  • JUV started the game with stronger pressure.
JUV Pressure CES Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CES reached the top pressure at 79' (97.18).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juve Stabia JUV Home
7 matches
Cesena CES Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
7
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:04:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Confente
Italy
1 A. Confente
A. Giorgini
Italy
33 A. Giorgini
M. Varnier
Italy
13 M. Varnier
M. Bellich
Substitution
Italy
6 M. Bellich
L. Carissoni
Italy
24 L. Carissoni
N. Mosti
Italy
98 N. Mosti
O. Correia
Substitution
France
29 O. Correia
A. Cacciamani
77 A. Cacciamani
M. Luz Priveato Dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
70 M. Luz Priveato Dos Santos
M. Mannini
Substitution
Italy
76 M. Mannini
A. Okoro
Substitution
Nigeria
90 A. Okoro
J. Klinsmann
United States
33 J. Klinsmann
G. Frabotta
Substitution
Italy
99 G. Frabotta
M. Piacentini
Italy
26 M. Piacentini
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
A. Ciofi
Italy
15 A. Ciofi
D. Bisoli
Substitution
Italy
25 D. Bisoli
S. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
10 S. Bastoni
C. Shpendi
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
T. Berti
Italy
14 T. Berti
R. Ciervo
Substitution
Italy
11 R. Ciervo
A. Cerri
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Cerri

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti
Capacity
12000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dario Garzelli
Eugenio Scarpa
Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi
Alberto Arena

Statistics

Possession
JUV
48%
CES
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Shots 8
41 Dangerous attacks 43
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 2
20 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Throwins 20
9 Dribble Attempts 11
12 Goal Kicks 6
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 73
2 Successful Dribbles 8
5 Substitutions 5
83 Ball Safe 56
5 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

76 Attacks 97

Possession

28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
349 Successful Passes 360
13 Successful Long Passes 16
4 Key Passes 11
421 Passes 431
83 Successful Passes Percentage 84
47 Long Passes 39

Defensive

7 Interceptions 10
9 Tackles 15
2 Saves 1

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 4
18 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

8 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich Defender
46
Salim Diakité
Salim Diakité
Defender46'
13
Marco Varnier
Marco Varnier Defender
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini Defender
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni Midfielder
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia Midfielder
10
Christian Pierobon
Christian Pierobon
Midfielder77'
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Midfielder
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti Midfielder
70
Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos
Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos Attacker
9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Attacker46'
76
Mattia Mannini
Mattia Mannini Attacker
28
Emanuele Torrasi
Emanuele Torrasi
Midfielder46'
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro Attacker
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi
Midfielder88'
Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Starting XI ▼

33
Jonathan Klinsmann
Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Defender
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
26
Matteo Piacentini
Matteo Piacentini Defender
99
Gianluca Frabotta
Gianluca Frabotta Defender
17
Ibrahima Papa Wade
Ibrahima Papa Wade
Midfielder90'
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Midfielder
10
Simone Bastoni
Simone Bastoni Midfielder
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza
Defender61'
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo Midfielder
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri
Attacker61'
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
4
Michele Castagnetti
Michele Castagnetti
Midfielder61'
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Attacker
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni
Attacker81'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Ibrahima Papa Wade → Gianluca Frabotta
10th Substitution
Event
Manuel Ricciardi → Alvin Okoro
9th Substitution
88'
81'
Event
Giacomo Vrioni → Alberto Cerri
8th Substitution
Event
Christian Pierobon → Omar Correia
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Omar Correia
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Lorenzo Carissoni
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
63'
61'
Event
Michele Castagnetti → Dimitri Bisoli
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Tommaso Corazza → Simone Bastoni
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Marco Olivieri → Riccardo Ciervo
6th Substitution
55'
Event
Dimitri Bisoli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Marco Varnier
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
52'
Event
Alessandro Gabrielloni → Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Salim Diakité → Marco Bellich
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Emanuele Torrasi → Mattia Mannini
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Simone Bastoni
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ignazio Abate
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
33'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Juve Stabia exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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