Istra 1961 vs Vukovar Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Sat, 18 Apr - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961
Istra 1961
1
2
2
Vukovar
Vukovar
Full Time
Sat, 18 Apr
4:45 PM
Round 30 ·
Regular Season
Vinko Rozic - 21'
|
Simun Butic - 36'
Jakov Puljic - 75' (P)
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
In a stunning upset in the Croatian First League, Vukovar triumphed 2-1 over favored home side Istra 1961, who dominated possession with 72% to Vukovar's 28%. The match was level at 1-1 at halftime, reflecting Istra's early control, but Vukovar struck decisively in the second half to claim victory. As the stronger team on paper, Istra's inability to convert their territorial advantage into goals exposed vulnerabilities, while Vukovar's clinical finishing proved decisive. No red cards marred the contest, and without notable tactical shifts, the game hinged on efficiency in limited opportunities. This outcome represents a significant structural deviation, underscoring how underdogs can defy dominance through sharp execution.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Vukovar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations amid Istra's heavy possession advantage.
-
xG alignment: xG data absence prevented any alignment verification with the final scoreline.
-
Market alignment: Pre-match market views found no alignment with Vukovar's unexpected triumph.
-
xG expectations: Missing xG figures left expectations against the result unassessable.
-
Event impact: Empty second-half adjustments list indicated no major events swayed momentum.
-
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured the scoreline faced no dismissal-related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Maloča
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.35
I. Martinčić
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.35
A. Čulina
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.35
A. Marić
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.35
O. Riera Magem
VS
T. Stipić
1.2
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.79
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rank:
L
Hajduk Split
Rank:
L
Varaždin
Rank:
W
Rijeka
Rank:
W
Osijek
Rank:
L
Slaven Koprivnica
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb
Rank:
L
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rank:
D
Hajduk Split
Rank:
L
Varaždin
Rank:
L
Rijeka
Rank:
L
Osijek
Rank:
L
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 1
1
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Istra 1961
42.83%
Draw
27.47%
Vukovar
29.7%
Movement
Changes since opening
Istra 1961
+42.64%
Draw
+22.38%
Vukovar
-65.02%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.48
14.44
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Vukovar
Power Score
22.48
14.44
League Position
7
10
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Istra 1961
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Vukovar
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Istra 1961 Vukovar
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Istra 1961
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Vukovar
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Istra 1961
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Vukovar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.61
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Istra 1961
-0.63
Efficiency Index
vs
Vukovar
+0.63
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Vukovar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Istra 1961
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Vukovar
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961
Vukovar
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961
Vukovar
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Vukovar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Istra 1961
vs
Vukovar
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Istra 1961
Vukovar
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Istra 1961
0.17
Vukovar
0.18
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Istra 1961
Vukovar
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Istra 1961
0.04
Vukovar
0.01
Istra 1961
Vukovar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Istra 1961 had peak pressure around 2'.
- Istra 1961 started the game with stronger pressure.
- Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Istra 1961 Pressure
Vukovar Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
Istra 1961 reached the top pressure at 2' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Istra 1961
Istra 1961
Home
3
matches
Vukovar
Vukovar
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:06:46+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
1 F. Kolić
97 A. Kadušić
24 F. Taraba
38 R. Kumar
26 M. Heister
10 S. Lončar
G. Albarracín
#2580'
23 L. Štulac
S. Goričan
#1167'
17 E. Frederiksen
8 A. Mauric
A. Obando
#2981'
7 V. Rozić
9 S. Prevljak
1 M. Bulat
K. Çalhanoğlu
#790+6'
20 K. Cabrajic
14 M. Živković
35 J. Gurlica
5 N. Vlasenko
13 V. Čaić
77 E. Shabani
L. Kulušić
#1178'
28 L. Banovec
10 R. Gonzales
A. Jurilj
#1987'
27 ?. Butić
21 J. Puljić
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity
9800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marko Maloča
Ivana Martinčić
Ante Čulina
Anto Marić
Next Match
Istra 1961
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Wed, 22 Apr - 6:15 PM
Venue: Stadion Aldo Drosina
Vukovar
vs
Gorica
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Wed, 22 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Stadion Gradski vrt
Statistics
Possession
Istra 1961
67%
Vukovar
33%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
2
5
Big Chances Created
3
5
Shots
2
98
Dangerous attacks
45
72
Possession
28
8
Corners
3
13
Free kicks
15
2
Yellow Cards
4
Match Overview
1
Assists
1
16
Dribble Attempts
6
1
Hit Woodwork
0
3
Substitutions
3
0
Penalties
1
8
Successful Dribbles
3
7
Goal Kicks
18
20
Throwins
9
50
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
Attacking
139
Attacks
76
4
Big Chances Missed
2
Possession
61
Long Passes
50
561
Passes
228
59
Successful Long Passes Percentage
36
478
Successful Passes
156
85
Successful Passes Percentage
68
36
Successful Long Passes
18
12
Key Passes
4
Defensive
4
Interceptions
14
1
Saves
2
11
Tackles
14
43
Duels Won
40
Build-up
10
Accurate Crosses
1
34
Total Crosses
7
Discipline
2
Offsides
2
16
Fouls
13
Lineup
Referee :
Ante Čulina
Manager ▼
O. Riera Magem
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Franko Kolic
Goalkeeper
6.94 24
Filip Taraba
Defender
6.54 26
Marcel Heister
Defender
6.75 38
Raul Kumar
Defender
6.7 97
Advan Kadusic
Defender
6.83 7
Vinko Rozic
Midfielder
29Allen Obando
Attacker81'
6.58
8
Antonio Mauric
Midfielder
6.8 10
Stjepan Loncar
Midfielder
6.86
17
Emil Frederiksen
Midfielder
6.94 11Silvio Gorican
6.5Attacker67'
23
Leo Stulac
Midfielder
6.71 25Gustavo Albarracín
6.16Midfielder80'
9
Smail Prevljak
Attacker
6.91 Substitutes ▼
40
Jan Paus-Kunst
Goalkeeper
3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Defender
6.97 13
Niko Šepić
Defender
6.62 16
Samuli Miettinen
Defender
6.44 44
R. Hrvatin
Defender
5.87 20
Dukan Ahmeti
Midfielder
6.46 15
Ebou Sama
Attacker
77
Charles Adah Agada
Attacker
6.58
Referee :
Ante Čulina
Manager ▼
T. Stipić
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Marino Bulat
Goalkeeper
6.75
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Defender
6.05 13
Vito Caic
Defender
6.54
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Defender
6.51 20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Defender
6.5 7Kerim Çalhanoğlu
6.72Defender90+6'
10
Robin González
Midfielder
6.86 27
Simun Butic
Midfielder
19Alen Jurilj
6.65Midfielder87'
28
Lovro Banovec
Midfielder
6.76 11Lovre Kulusic
Attacker78'
6.26
35
Jakov Gurlica
Midfielder
6.9 77
Eniss Shabani
Midfielder
6.71 21
Jakov Puljic
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
12
Dominik Damjanović
Goalkeeper
26
Josip Elez
Defender
6.43 6
Jakov Biljan
Midfielder
6.55 50
Josip Špoljarić
Midfielder
6.44 24
Niko Pajvančić
Attacker
33
Luka Klanac
Attacker
6.48 39
Pocholo Bugas
Attacker
6.45
Events
2ND-HALF
Allen Obando
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+17'
90+15'
Robin González
Goal disallowed
90+7'
Marino Bulat
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Kerim Çalhanoğlu → Kristijan Cabrajic
6th Substitution
Antonio Mauric
Goal disallowed
90+2'
87'
Alen Jurilj → Simun Butic
5th Substitution
Allen Obando → Vinko Rozic
4th Substitution
81'
81'
Lovre Kulusic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Gustavo Albarracín → Leo Stulac
3rd Substitution
80'
78'
Lovre Kulusic → Lovro Banovec
2nd Substitution
75'
Jakov Puljic
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Silvio Gorican → Emil Frederiksen
1st Substitution
67'
Stjepan Loncar
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
45'
Vito Caic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
36'
Simun Butic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
Jakov Puljic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Vinko Rozic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Vukovar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.