Heracles Almelo vs FC Utrecht Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Eredivisie
FC Utrecht
UTR
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Heracles Almelo and FC Utrecht has finished in a 0-0 draw, with neither side able to break the deadlock after going into halftime scoreless. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which favored FC Utrecht as the notably stronger team. Entering the contest, Utrecht held a 43.1% win probability compared to a 30.3% chance for the hosts and just a 26.6% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. FC Utrecht controlled a slight majority of the ball with 53% possession, leaving Heracles Almelo with 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to accurately assess if the scoreless result was consistent with the actual quality of chances created by either side. However, the overall efficiency shift was in line with general performance patterns, indicating an uneventful stalemate rather than a wildly lucky escape for the hosts. The game was contested cleanly, as no red cards were issued to impact the tactical flow. Without any major disciplinary disruptions to alter the balance, FC Utrecht ultimately failed to assert their anticipated dominance, settling for a scoreless point.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: FC Utrecht showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Heracles Almelo
FC Utrecht
Team Power Ranking
i
23.08
44.87
Heracles Almelo
FC Utrecht
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Heracles Almelo
FC Utrecht
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Heracles Almelo
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Heracles Almelo
Heracles Almelo
FC Utrecht
Heracles Almelo
FC Utrecht
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:27:32+00:00

Match Commentary