Heidenheim vs TSG Hoffenheim Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion Sat, 7 Mar - 2:30 PM
Bundesliga
Heidenheim HDH
2 Winner 4
TSG Hoffenheim TSG
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
Luca Kerber - 62', 84'
Goal
|
Goal
Alexander Prass - 26', 45+1'
Fisnik Asllani - 49'
Tim Lemperle - 78'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Heidenheim 2–4 TSG Hoffenheim. The result saw TSG Hoffenheim take the points. TSG Hoffenheim showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 46%–54%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: TSG Hoffenheim showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Hartmann
R. Hartmann
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
T. Schultes
T. Schultes
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
M. Bacher
M. Bacher
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
C. Leicher
C. Leicher
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
VS
TSG Hoffenheim C. Ilzer
C. Ilzer
0.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Werder Bremen Rank: L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: D
FC Augsburg Rank: L
Hamburger SV Rank: L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Pauli Rank: L
FC Köln Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: W
FC Bayern München Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heidenheim
17.23%
Draw
20.56%
Away TSG Hoffenheim
62.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
18.67
65.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heidenheim
TSG Hoffenheim
Power Score
18.67
65.33
League Position
18
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
TSG Hoffenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heidenheim TSG Hoffenheim

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Heidenheim

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

TSG Hoffenheim

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Heidenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy TSG Hoffenheim
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.52
33.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.52
21.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Heidenheim -1.14 Efficiency Index
vs
TSG Hoffenheim +1.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Heidenheim
TSG Hoffenheim
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Heidenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy TSG Hoffenheim
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Heidenheim TSG Hoffenheim
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Heidenheim TSG Hoffenheim
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Heidenheim
TSG Hoffenheim
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heidenheim HDH Home
5 matches
TSG Hoffenheim TSG Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
5
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:05:14+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Capacity
15000
Attendance
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Robert Hartmann
Tobias Schultes
Michael Bacher
Christian Leicher

Statistics

Possession
HDH
47%
TSG
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 13
38 Dangerous attacks 42
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 7

Match Overview

14 Goal Kicks 9
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
5 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Goal Attempts 6
15 Dribble Attempts 12
45 Ball Safe 47
17 Successful Headers 21
17 Throwins 30
2 Assists 3
1 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

92 Attacks 105
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
40 Successful Long Passes 29
6 Key Passes 13
72 Successful Passes Percentage 77
80 Long Passes 67
255 Successful Passes 331
354 Passes 428

Defensive

8 Interceptions 8
12 Tackles 15
3 Saves 1
48 Duels Won 47

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 15

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Valentin Gendrey → Bazoumana Touré
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Muhammed Damar → Fisnik Asllani
9th Substitution
Event
Luca Kerber
Header / 6th Goal
84'
78'
Event
Tim Lemperle
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
77'
Event
Robin Hranac → Albian Hajdari
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Tim Lemperle → Andrej Kramaric
8th Substitution
Event
Christian Conteh
Goal disallowed
72'
Event
Stefan Schimmer → Jan Schöppner
6th Substitution
72'
65'
Event
Grischa Prömel → Wouter Burger
5th Substitution
Event
Marnon Busch → Omar Traoré
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Eren Dinkçi → Niklas Dorsch
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Luca Kerber
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
62'
49'
Event
Fisnik Asllani
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Sirlord Conteh → Mathias Honsak
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Christian Conteh → Marvin Pieringer
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Christian Conteh
Goal awarded
45+1'
Event
Alexander Prass
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
26'
Event
Alexander Prass
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Budu Zivzivadze of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 attempted a header from a challenging angle on the left, but it sailed high and wide to the left. The assist came from Sirlord Conteh, who delivered a cross.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Budu Zivzivadze of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Valentin Gendrey from TSG Hoffenheim attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Alexander Prass from TSG Hoffenheim takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Diant Ramaj, the goalkeeper for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Muhammed Damar.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2, TSG Hoffenheim 4.
90
Update Update
Alexander Prass from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 scoring 2 goals and TSG Hoffenheim finishing with 4 goals.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2, TSG Hoffenheim 4.
88
Update Update
Sirlord Conteh from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Update Update
Grischa Prömel from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Muhammed Damar comes on to replace Fisnik Asllani.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Valentin Gendrey comes on to replace Bazoumana Touré.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 after Robin Hranác allowed the ball to go out.
85
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 after Ozan Kabak was deemed to have committed a foul.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has scored, bringing the score to 2-4 against TSG Hoffenheim. Luca Kerber found the net with a header from the right side of the six-yard box, directing the ball into the bottom right corner. The assist came from Hennes Behrens, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 after Oliver Baumann allowed the ball to go out.
83
Update Update
Vladimír Coufal from TSG Hoffenheim has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
Hennes Behrens from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
80
Update Update
Christian Conteh from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 committed a foul.
80
Update Update
Alexander Prass from TSG Hoffenheim was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 takes the lead against TSG Hoffenheim with a score of 1-0. Tim Lemperle from TSG Hoffenheim scores with a right-footed shot from close range.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Tim Lemperle replaces Andrej Kramaric.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Robin Hranác comes on to replace Albian Hajdari.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Robin Hranác comes on to replace Albian Hajdari.
73
Update Update
Alexander Prass from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexander Prass of TSG Hoffenheim.
72
Update Update
Benedikt Gimber from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Stefan Schimmer comes on to replace Jan Schöppner.
70
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed - 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1-3 TSG Hoffenheim.
69
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed. The score remains 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1 - 3 TSG Hoffenheim.
68
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846. Sirlord Conteh has been flagged for being in an offside position.
68
Corner Corner
Goal! 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has scored, bringing the score to 2-3 against TSG Hoffenheim. Christian Conteh found the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly in the top left corner after a swift counterattack.
65
Update Update
Fouled by Budu Zivzivadze from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846.
64
Update Update
Ozan Kabak from TSG Hoffenheim earned a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Grischa Prömel comes on to replace Wouter Burger.
63
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Alexander Prass from TSG Hoffenheim took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Andrej Kramaric.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Eren Dinkçi comes on to replace Niklas Dorsch.
61
Corner Corner
Goal! 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has scored, bringing the score to 1-3 against TSG Hoffenheim. Luca Kerber found the back of the net with a right-footed shot from close range into the bottom right corner, assisted by Hennes Behrens.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Marnon Busch comes on to replace Omar Haktab Traoré.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Jan Schöppner allowed the ball to go out.
59
Update Update
Wouter Burger from TSG Hoffenheim was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
59
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Andrej Kramaric from TSG Hoffenheim took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal and to the left after a corner kick.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jan Schöppner from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Christian Conteh.
58
Update Update
Benedikt Gimber from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexander Prass of TSG Hoffenheim.
55
Update Update
Benedikt Gimber from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Bazoumana Touré from TSG Hoffenheim took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist was provided by Wouter Burger.
52
Update Update
Alexander Prass from TSG Hoffenheim was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
52
Update Update
Niklas Dorsch from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 committed a foul.
52
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Albian Hajdari from TSG Hoffenheim took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Andrej Kramaric.
50
Update Update
Offside call against TSG Hoffenheim. Fisnik Asllani has been flagged for being in an offside position.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! TSG Hoffenheim takes the lead against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846. Fisnik Asllani scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing the ball into the bottom left corner.
49
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Leon Avdullahu from TSG Hoffenheim takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Diant Ramaj of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 makes a save in the left corner. The assist came from Bazoumana Touré.
48
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Fisnik Asllani from TSG Hoffenheim took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Bazoumana Touré.
47
Update Update
Albian Hajdari from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Budu Zivzivadze from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 trailing TSG Hoffenheim 2-0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 trailing TSG Hoffenheim by a score of 0 to 2.
45
Update Update
Mathias Honsak from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
Albian Hajdari from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
45
Update Update
VAR Update: Goal confirmed for TSG Hoffenheim, making it 2-0 against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 - Scorer: Alexander Prass.
45
Attempt Attempt
Goal! TSG Hoffenheim takes the lead against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 with a score of 1-0. Alexander Prass scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, sending the ball straight to the center of the goal. The assist comes from Andrej Kramaric, who delivered a precise through ball. The goal was confirmed after a VAR review.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 2 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Sirlord Conteh is coming on to replace Marvin Pieringer.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Christian Conteh comes on to replace Mathias Honsak.
40
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Budu Zivzivadze of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Niklas Dorsch.
39
Update Update
Alexander Prass from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Hennes Behrens from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Vladimír Coufal from TSG Hoffenheim attempted a right-footed shot from a considerable distance on the right side following a corner kick.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Patrick Mainka allowed the ball to go out.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Patrick Mainka allowed the ball to go out.
32
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Budu Zivzivadze of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 had a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Omar Haktab Traoré.
31
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
30
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Jan Schöppner from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846.
29
Update Update
Mathias Honsak from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
29
Update Update
Vladimír Coufal committed a foul against a player from TSG Hoffenheim.
28
Update Update
Niklas Dorsch from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Update Update
Leon Avdullahu from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! TSG Hoffenheim takes the lead against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 with a score of 1-0. Alexander Prass scored with a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, sending the ball into the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Fisnik Asllani.
23
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Ozan Kabak of TSG Hoffenheim attempted a header from the center of the penalty area following a corner kick, but it didn't find the target.
22
Update Update
Omar Haktab Traoré from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 earned a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
Omar Haktab Traoré from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Wouter Burger from TSG Hoffenheim.
18
Update Update
Ozan Kabak from TSG Hoffenheim has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mathias Honsak from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
15
Update Update
Fouled by Bazoumana Touré from TSG Hoffenheim.
15
Update Update
Patrick Mainka from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Alexander Prass from TSG Hoffenheim takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. Diant Ramaj from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 makes a save, denying the attempt in the right corner. The assist came from Wouter Burger.
12
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846. Marvin Pieringer is caught in an offside position.
9
Update Update
Niklas Dorsch from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 earned a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Albian Hajdari from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846. Marvin Pieringer is caught in an offside position.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 after Bernardo gave away a foul.
5
Update Update
Vladimír Coufal committed a foul against a player from TSG Hoffenheim.
5
Update Update
Mathias Honsak from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
4
Update Update
Marvin Pieringer from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 commits a handball foul.
3
Update Update
Bazoumana Touré from TSG Hoffenheim earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
3
Update Update
Niklas Dorsch from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 committed a foul.
3
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Fisnik Asllani from TSG Hoffenheim attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Andrej Kramaric.
2
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Patrick Mainka from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 takes a shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sails over the bar and to the left.
1
Update Update
Albian Hajdari from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Budu Zivzivadze from 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 earned a free kick on the right flank.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: TSG Hoffenheim exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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