Heidenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
B04
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Heidenheim and Bayer 04 Leverkusen is now finished, ending in an action-packed 3-3 draw. Leverkusen took a 2-0 lead into the halftime break, but the hosts fought back in the second half to share the points. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, negatively impacting Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The visitors were heavily favored to win with a 60.2% implied probability, compared to a 21.2% chance for a draw and an 18.6% chance for a Heidenheim victory. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. Bayer 04 Leverkusen controlled the flow of the game, holding 63% possession against Heidenheim's 37%. Despite Leverkusen's dominance on the ball, the underlying attacking quality was remarkably even. Heidenheim recorded 1.57 expected goals (xG) while Leverkusen generated 1.63 xG. Because of this narrow margin, the drawn outcome was fully consistent with the expected goals data. Furthermore, both teams' scoring rates were entirely in line with efficiency expectations, as the sides finished their chances effectively in a clean match that featured zero red cards to impact the overall dynamics.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Bayer 04 Leverkusen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Team Power Ranking
i
69.72
89.48
Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Heidenheim
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Heidenheim
Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:48+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Heidenheim
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Away
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary