Hammarby vs Örgryte Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Tele2 Arena Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Hammarby HAM
8 Winner 1
Örgryte Örgryte
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
Noah Persson - 11'
Nahir Besara - 18'
Paulos Abraham - 22'
Victor Lind - 33'
Montader Madjed - 57'
Nikola Vasic - 70', 79', 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Christoffer Styffe - 32'

CONTEXT

Hammarby produced a dominant display in thrashing Örgryte 8-1, asserting control early and never relenting. They led 4-1 at halftime, then piled on four more goals in the second half, capitalizing on 62% possession to dictate proceedings. As the stronger team, Hammarby delivered a performance that exceeded structural baselines by a significant 22.7% deviation in their favor. The result aligned with pre-market assessments, reflecting their favored status. No red cards marred the game, and efficiency metrics stayed in line with projections. Örgryte managed a lone goal but were overwhelmed throughout, unable to mount a serious challenge. This one-sided encounter emphasized Hammarby's superiority in attack and midfield control.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited a significant 22.7% structural deviation favoring Hammarby.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment data unavailable due to missing metrics.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data not provided.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events impacted flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Lundgren
M. Lundgren
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.59
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
A. Svensson
A. Svensson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.59
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
F. Ben Ahmed Nehdi
F. Ben Ahmed Nehdi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.59
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
G. Maqedonci
G. Maqedonci
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.59
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Hammarby K. Karlsson
K. Karlsson
VS
Örgryte A. Holmberg
A. Holmberg
2.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sirius Rank: L
Mjällby Rank: W
Elfsborg Rank: W
Degerfors Rank: D
Malmö FF Rank: W
AIK Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mjällby Rank: W
Malmö FF Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hammarby
77.25%
Draw
14.23%
Away Örgryte
8.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hammarby
-20.19%
Draw
+12.32%
Örgryte
+7.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39.26
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hammarby
Örgryte
Power Score
39.26
33.33
League Position
4
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hammarby — Opponent-weighted form score
Örgryte — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hammarby Örgryte

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hammarby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Örgryte

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hammarby ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Örgryte
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
59.19
38.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.03
59.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hammarby +2.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Örgryte -2.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hammarby
Örgryte
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hammarby ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Örgryte
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hammarby Örgryte
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hammarby Örgryte
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hammarby
Örgryte
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hammarby
vs
Örgryte
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hammarby Örgryte
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hammarby 0.45
Örgryte 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hammarby Örgryte
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hammarby 0.03
Örgryte 0.11
Hammarby
Örgryte
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HAM had peak pressure around 46'.
  • HAM started the game with stronger pressure.
HAM Pressure Örgryte Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HAM reached the top pressure at 46' (86.54).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hammarby HAM Home
6 matches
Örgryte Örgryte Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:03:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
W. Hahn
Suriname
1 W. Hahn
E. Skoglund
Sweden
2 E. Skoglund
V. Eriksson
Sweden
4 V. Eriksson
F. Winther
Denmark
3 F. Winther
N. Persson
Substitution
Sweden
16 N. Persson
M. Karlsson
Sweden
8 M. Karlsson
O. Johansson
Substitution
Sweden
11 O. Johansson
M. Madjed
Substitution
Sweden
26 M. Madjed
N. Besara
Substitution
Sweden
20 N. Besara
V. Lind
Denmark
9 V. Lind
P. Abraham
Substitution
Sweden
7 P. Abraham
H. Gustafsson
Sweden
44 H. Gustafsson
M. Parker
England
2 M. Parker
M. Dyrestam
Substitution
Guinea
6 M. Dyrestam
C. Styffe
Sweden
5 C. Styffe
A. Andreasson
Sweden
19 A. Andreasson
B. Laturnus
Canada
8 B. Laturnus
O. Parker-Price
Substitution
New Zealand
23 O. Parker-Price
D. Paulson
Sweden
14 D. Paulson
T. Sana
Substitution
Sweden
22 T. Sana
J. Tibbling Ugwo
Substitution
Sweden
15 J. Tibbling Ugwo
W. Hofvander
Sweden
17 W. Hofvander

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Tele2 Arena
Capacity
32000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marcus Lundgren
Andreas Svensson
Farouk Ben Ahmed Nehdi
Granit Maqedonci

Statistics

Possession
HAM
60%
Örgryte
40%

Top Statistics

8 Goals 1
11 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 7
74 Dangerous attacks 29
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 14
19 Dribble Attempts 13
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
7 Goal Kicks 15
72 Ball Safe 84
7 Assists 0
22 Goal Attempts 7
10 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

117 Attacks 68
6 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

526 Successful Passes 295
582 Passes 360
15 Successful Long Passes 24
90 Successful Passes Percentage 82
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
32 Long Passes 52
22 Key Passes 9

Defensive

25 Tackles 21
47 Duels Won 42
14 Interceptions 5
3 Saves 9

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Granit Maqedonci

Starting XI ▼

1
Warner Hahn
Warner Hahn Goalkeeper
7.49
2
Hampus Skoglund
Hampus Skoglund Defender
6.88
3
Frederik Winther
Frederik Winther Defender
7.49
4
Victor Eriksson
Victor Eriksson Defender
6.58
16
Noah Persson
Noah Persson Defender
6.52
31
Oscar Steinke Brånby
Oscar Steinke Brånby
Defender78'
6.38
8
Markus Karlsson
Markus Karlsson Midfielder
7.29
9
Victor Lind
Victor Lind Midfielder
6.78
11
Oscar Johansson Schellhas
Oscar Johansson Schellhas Midfielder
7.22
28
Frank Junior Adjei
Frank Junior Adjei
Midfielder60'
6.71
20
Nahir Besara
Nahir Besara Midfielder
7.7
5
Tesfaldet Tekie
Tesfaldet Tekie
Midfielder60'
6.81
26
Montader Madjed
Montader Madjed Midfielder
6.83
15
Oliver Jordan Hagen
Oliver Jordan Hagen
Attacker71'
6.83
7
Paulos Abraham
Paulos Abraham Attacker
8.01
19
Nikola Vasic
Nikola Vasic
Attacker60'
3
9.36
Referee : Granit Maqedonci

Starting XI ▼

44
Hampus Gustafsson
Hampus Gustafsson Goalkeeper
7.49
2
Michael Parker
Michael Parker Defender
6.94
5
Christoffer Styffe
Christoffer Styffe Defender
7.19
6
Mikael Dyrestam
Mikael Dyrestam Defender
8.41
3
Jonathan Azulay
Jonathan Azulay
Defender73'
5.97
8
Benjamin Laturnus
Benjamin Laturnus Midfielder
7.19
14
Daniel Paulson
Daniel Paulson Midfielder
6.47
19
Anton Andreasson
Anton Andreasson Midfielder
7.11
23
Owen Parker-Price
Owen Parker-Price Midfielder
7.45
25
Demirel Hodzic
Demirel Hodzic
Midfielder57'
6.5
15
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo Attacker
6.97
11
Noah Christoffersson
Noah Christoffersson
Attacker57'
6.54
17
William Hofvander
William Hofvander Attacker
6.71
22
Tobias Sana
Tobias Sana Attacker
7.2
29
Marlon Ebietomere
Marlon Ebietomere
Defender73'
5.99

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nikola Vasic
Right foot shot / 9th Goal
86'
Event
Nikola Vasic
Right foot shot / 8th Goal
79'
Event
Oscar Steinke Brånby → Noah Persson
9th Substitution
78'
73'
Event
Jonathan Azulay → Mikael Dyrestam
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Marlon Ebietomere → Tobias Sana
8th Substitution
Event
Oliver Jordan Hagen → Montader Madjed
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Nikola Vasic
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
70'
Event
Frank Junior Adjei → Oscar Johansson Schellhas
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Tesfaldet Tekie → Nahir Besara
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Nikola Vasic → Paulos Abraham
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Montader Madjed
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
57'
57'
Event
Noah Christoffersson → Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Demirel Hodzic → Owen Parker-Price
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Victor Lind
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
33'
32'
Event
Christoffer Styffe
Header / 4th Goal
28'
Event
Mikael Dyrestam
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Paulos Abraham
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
22'
Event
Nahir Besara
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
18'
Event
Noah Persson
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
11'

CONCLUSION

Hammarby's 8-1 demolition of Örgryte exemplified total control, with halftime lead and possession edge paving way for second-half dominance. The significant 22.7% deviation underscored their overperformance against baselines, while market alignment confirmed pre-match favoritism. Efficiency in line and no red card disruptions allowed unhindered execution. Though xG absence limits precision, raw stats reveal Hammarby's clinical edge and Örgryte's defensive frailty. This result bolsters Hammarby's credentials in competitive standings.

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