Hamburger SV vs TSG Hoffenheim Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Volksparkstadion Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV HSV
Versus
TSG Hoffenheim TSG
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Hamburger SV welcome TSG Hoffenheim to Volksparkstadion for a Bundesliga regular season encounter in the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts sit 14th in the table, grappling with inconsistency, while Hoffenheim occupy a strong 5th place, showcasing greater stability. Hoffenheim boast a clear power advantage of 8.5 points, underpinned by their superior form score of 19.06 against HSV's 8.56. This matchup pits a mid-table side against promotion hopefuls, with the visitors holding the edge in overall quality. Lacking recent outing details, focus shifts to underlying metrics where Hoffenheim's higher rating suggests dominance. Set-piece data remains sparse due to low-confidence proxies, but Hoffenheim's trajectory points to control. Expect a tactical battle where the away side's efficiency could prove decisive.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hoffenheim hold a 8.5-point power advantage and sit 5th versus HSV's 14th in the Bundesliga table.
  • Form: Hoffenheim's form score of 19.06 significantly outpaces Hamburger SV's 8.56.
  • Squad: Hoffenheim's higher power score of 26.53 reflects stronger squad depth compared to HSV's 18.06.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either side.
  • Transition: Limited transition metrics provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, preventing analysis of expected goal variables.
  • Market: Baseline split: Hamburger SV 24% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.4% (Δ+0%) | TSG Hoffenheim 52.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
VS
TSG Hoffenheim C. Ilzer
C. Ilzer
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Werder Bremen Rank: L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
FC Augsburg Rank: D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
FC Köln Rank: D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Dortmund Rank: W
FC Augsburg Rank: D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: D
Heidenheim Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 4 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hamburger SV
24.04%
Draw
23.44%
Away TSG Hoffenheim
52.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.06
26.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim
Power Score
18.06
26.53
League Position
14
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
TSG Hoffenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hamburger SV TSG Hoffenheim

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hamburger SV HSV Home
21 matches
TSG Hoffenheim TSG Away
Match Record
8
Wins
9
4
Draws
4
9
Losses
8
Goals
24
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
24
-14
Goal Difference
+14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:08:43+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Heuer Fernandes
1 D. Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo
24 N. Capaldo
J. Torunarigha
25 J. Torunarigha
W. Omari
17 W. Omari
W. Mikelbrencis
2 W. Mikelbrencis
A. Erlykke
23 A. Erlykke
N. Remberg
21 N. Remberg
G. Gocholeishvili
16 G. Gocholeishvili
F. Ferreira Vieira
20 F. Ferreira Vieira
R. Glatzel
9 R. Glatzel
R. Königsdörffer
11 R. Königsdörffer
O. Baumann
1 O. Baumann
B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
A. Hajdari
21 A. Hajdari
O. Kabak
5 O. Kabak
B. Touré
29 B. Touré
A. Kramarić
27 A. Kramarić
W. Burger
18 W. Burger
L. Avdullahu
7 L. Avdullahu
V. Coufal
34 V. Coufal
F. Asllani
11 F. Asllani
T. Lemperle
19 T. Lemperle

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Volksparkstadion
Capacity
57000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
6.87
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis Midfielder
6.5
16
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
Giorgi Gocholeishvili Midfielder
6.52
9
Robert Glatzel
Robert Glatzel Attacker
6.66
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
6.71
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Left Back
6.61
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Centre Back
6.79
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Attacking Midfield
7.1
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Central Midfield
6.87
23
Albert Grønbæk
Albert Grønbæk Central Midfield
6.53
24
Nicolás Capaldo
Nicolás Capaldo Right Back
6.82

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Baumann
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper
6.78
34
Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal Midfielder
7.07
29
Bazoumana Touré
Bazoumana Touré Midfielder
6.92
11
Fisnik Asllani
Fisnik Asllani Attacker
7.01
19
Tim Lemperle
Tim Lemperle Attacker
6.91
5
Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak Right Back
7
21
Albian Hajdari
Albian Hajdari Centre Back
6.92
27
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric Central Midfield
7.19
7
Leon Avdullahu
Leon Avdullahu Central Midfield
6.89
13
Bernardo
Bernardo Left Back
6.86
18
Wouter Burger
Wouter Burger Central Midfield
7.15

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward TSG Hoffenheim holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give TSG Hoffenheim a 8.5-point edge. External projection is Hamburger SV 24%, draw 23.4%, and TSG Hoffenheim 52.5%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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