Hajduk Split vs Gorica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Sun, 12 Apr - 4:30 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
1 Winner 0
Gorica Gorica
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Marko Livaja - 4'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Hajduk Split defeating Gorica 1-0 at full time. The home side led 1-0 at the interval and successfully protected their narrow advantage through the second half, securing a victory that reinforced their status as the stronger team. Pre-match forecasts gave Hajduk Split a roughly 65 percent likelihood of winning, with far lower expectations for a draw or away success. The result showed a significant deviation linked to Hajduk Split, yet the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and the outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match projection. No red cards were shown and no major disruptive events altered the contest. Hajduk Split dominated possession at 60 percent to 40 percent, though expected goals data is unavailable for further insight. The clean-sheet win reflected steady control rather than an exceptional swing, confirming the home team’s edge without reliance on external factors.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hajduk Split showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Vukančić
I. Vukančić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
K. Novosel
K. Novosel
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Luka Kurtović
Luka Kurtović
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Antonio Melnjak
Antonio Melnjak
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
1.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 6 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
64.71%
Draw
22.37%
Away Gorica
12.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hajduk Split
-31.77%
Draw
+19.04%
Gorica
+12.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
33.76
22.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Gorica
Power Score
33.76
22.26
League Position
2
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Gorica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.83
16.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.63
30.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hajduk Split +1.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Gorica -1.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Gorica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hajduk Split Gorica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Gorica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Gorica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hajduk Split
vs
Gorica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hajduk Split Gorica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hajduk Split 0.21
Gorica 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Gorica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hajduk Split 0.00
Gorica 0.01
Hajduk Split
Gorica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hajduk Split had peak pressure around 40'.
  • Hajduk Split started the game with stronger pressure.
Hajduk Split Pressure Gorica Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hajduk Split reached the top pressure at 40' (58.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
31 matches
Gorica Gorica Away
Match Record
16
Wins
9
6
Draws
6
9
Losses
16
Goals
55
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
55
+25
Goal Difference
-25
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:08:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
N. Sigur
Croatia
8 N. Sigur
Z. Šarlija
Croatia
31 Z. Šarlija
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
?. Hrgović
Substitution
Croatia
32 ?. Hrgović
A. Pajaziti
Albania
4 A. Pajaziti
F. Krovinović
Croatia
23 F. Krovinović
R. Brajković
Substitution
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
R. Pukstas
United States
21 R. Pukstas
M. Šego
Substitution
Croatia
11 M. Šego
M. Livaja
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Livaja
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
M. Leš
Substitution
Croatia
5 M. Leš
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
B. Bogojević
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
O. Bakić
Substitution
Montenegro
7 O. Bakić
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
D. Pavičić
Substitution
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
T. Epailly
Substitution
France
64 T. Epailly
S. Wisdom Aondowase
Substitution
11 S. Wisdom Aondowase

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Poljud
Capacity
34198
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivan Vukančić
Kristijan Novosel
Luka Kurtović
Antonio Melnjak

Statistics

Possession
Hajduk Split
59%
Gorica
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 1
70 Dangerous attacks 33
60 Possession 40
1 Corners 1
16 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
9 Dribble Attempts 15
21 Throwins 24
4 Goal Kicks 11
5 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

148 Attacks 88
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

605 Passes 398
14 Successful Long Passes 28
89 Successful Passes Percentage 83
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
36 Long Passes 58
536 Successful Passes 329
12 Key Passes 5

Defensive

6 Interceptions 13
21 Tackles 7
2 Saves 5

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 3
13 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

16 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Defender
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Defender
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak
Defender61'
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Midfielder
9
Ante Rebić
Ante Rebić
Attacker61'
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
23
Filip Krovinovic
Filip Krovinovic Midfielder
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
34
Bruno Durdov
Bruno Durdov
Attacker82'
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Attacker
26
Adam Guram
Adam Guram
Midfielder90+5'
Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Defender
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
5
Mateo Les
Mateo Les Midfielder
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja
Defender69'
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic Midfielder
14
Stjepan Kucis
Stjepan Kucis
Midfielder69'
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Midfielder
18
Ivan Fiolic
Ivan Fiolic
Midfielder80'
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly Midfielder
99
Medin Gashi
Medin Gashi
Attacker85'
11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Sule Wisdom Aondowase Attacker
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adam Guram → Marko Livaja
9th Substitution
90+5'
85'
Event
Medin Gashi → Théo Epailly
8th Substitution
Event
Bruno Durdov → Roko Brajkovic
7th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Ivan Fiolic → Domagoj Pavicic
6th Substitution
Event
Ante Rebić
Penalty cancelled
77'
69'
Event
Marijan Cabraja → Mateo Les
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Stjepan Kucis → Ognjen Bakic
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Jurica Prsir
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Dario Melnjak → Simun Hrgovic
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Ante Rebić → Michele Sego
3rd Substitution
61'
53'
Event
Domagoj Pavicic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Jurica Prsir → Sule Wisdom Aondowase
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
16'
Event
4th Yellowcard
16'
Event
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Marko Livaja
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hajduk Split exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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