Grazer AK vs Ried Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Fri, 17 Apr - 5:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Grazer AK GAK
1 – 1
Ried Ried
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 5 Relegation Round
Ramiz Harakate - 47'
Goal
|
Goal
Benjamin Garcia - 69'

CONTEXT

Grazer AK and Ried played out a 1-1 draw in the Austrian Bundesliga, with both teams scoreless at halftime. Grazer AK entered as the stronger team but could not secure victory despite a competitive showing. Ried edged possession at 54% to Grazer AK's 46%, reflecting a balanced contest without red cards or major disruptions. The result marked a significant 68.8% deviation from expectations centered on Grazer AK, whose pre-match positioning suggested a higher likelihood of winning. Market probabilities did not align with the outcome, as the draw diverged notably from favored scenarios. Efficiency metrics remained in line with pre-match evaluations, though xG data absence limits precise chance quality assessment. No second-half adjustments or knockout context influenced proceedings, underscoring a structurally even encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match resulted in a significant 68.8% deviation attributed to Grazer AK.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented outcome consistency assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Jäger
F. Jäger
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
R. Steinacher
R. Steinacher
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
P. Csobadi
P. Csobadi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
M. Baumann
M. Baumann
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
VS
Ried M. Senft
M. Senft
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: L
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: W
WSG Tirol Rank: W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
WSG Tirol Rank: L
Ried Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolfsberger AC Rank: D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: W
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: L
WSG Tirol Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: L
Grazer AK Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Grazer AK
36.3%
Draw
31.19%
Away Ried
32.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Grazer AK
+31.85%
Draw
-59.45%
Ried
+27.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.3
24.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grazer AK
Ried
Power Score
24.3
24.29
League Position
11
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Ried — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grazer AK Ried

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ried

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ried
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.87
37.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.13
30.87
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Grazer AK -0.49 Efficiency Index
vs
Ried +0.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
Ried
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ried
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Grazer AK Ried
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Grazer AK Ried
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
Ried
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Grazer AK
vs
Ried
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Grazer AK Ried
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Grazer AK 0.54
Ried 0.44
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Grazer AK Ried
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Grazer AK 0.02
Ried 0.04
Grazer AK
Ried
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Ried had peak pressure around 22'.
  • GAK started the game with stronger pressure.
GAK Pressure Ried Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Ried reached the top pressure at 22' (74.51).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grazer AK GAK Home
10 matches
Ried Ried Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
1
Goals
13
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
13
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:03:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
D. Pines
2 D. Pines
L. Vraa-Jensen
Denmark
3 L. Vraa-Jensen
M. Olesen
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
J. Italiano
Australia
14 J. Italiano
T. Schriebl
Substitution
Austria
20 T. Schriebl
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
L. Klassen
Russia
32 L. Klassen
R. Harakaté
France
22 R. Harakaté
A. Hofleitner
Austria
25 A. Hofleitner
A. Leitner
Austria
1 A. Leitner
O. Steurer
Germany
30 O. Steurer
M. Sollbauer
Austria
23 M. Sollbauer
N. Havenaar
Japan
5 N. Havenaar
P. Pomer
Austria
17 P. Pomer
N. Bajlicz
Austria
28 N. Bajlicz
M. Maart
South Africa
6 M. Maart
A. Van Wyk
Substitution
South Africa
29 A. Van Wyk
J. Mayer
Substitution
Austria
26 J. Mayer
A. Bajic
Substitution
Austria
12 A. Bajic
K. Mutandwa
Zambia
7 K. Mutandwa

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 5 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Florian Jäger
Robert Steinacher
Patrick Csobadi
Manuel Baumann

Statistics

Possession
GAK
44%
Ried
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 5
2 Shots 4
24 Dangerous attacks 41
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 8
14 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Successful Dribbles 10
14 Goal Kicks 11
84 Ball Safe 74
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
15 Throwins 13
11 Goal Attempts 18
8 Dribble Attempts 16
2 Substitutions 3
0 Assists 1
3 Injuries 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 4
54 Attacks 109

Possession

73 Successful Passes Percentage 81
30 Successful Long Passes 37
307 Passes 355
225 Successful Passes 289
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
73 Long Passes 64
6 Key Passes 12

Defensive

7 Interceptions 12
3 Saves 1
11 Tackles 10
48 Duels Won 53

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 6
15 Total Crosses 25

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Florian Jäger

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
6.81
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
6.94
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen Defender
6.6
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
6.87
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
6.89
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
6.62
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder76'
6.61
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
6.91
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl Midfielder
6.91
8
Tobias Koch
Tobias Koch
Midfielder66'
6.79
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
7.02
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
7.05
25
Alexander Hofleitner
Alexander Hofleitner Attacker
6.71
Referee : Florian Jäger

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Leitner
Andreas Leitner Goalkeeper
6.86
5
Benjamin Garcia
Benjamin Garcia Defender
6.98
17
Philipp Pomer
Philipp Pomer Defender
6.96
23
Michael Sollbauer
Michael Sollbauer Defender
6.8
30
Oliver Steurer
Oliver Steurer Defender
6.86
6
Yusuf Maart
Yusuf Maart Midfielder
6.99
12
Ante Bajic
Ante Bajic Midfielder
6.91
15
Joris Boguo
Joris Boguo
Attacker77'
6.53
26
Jonas Mayer
Jonas Mayer Midfielder
6.66
19
Yussef Nasrawe
Yussef Nasrawe
Midfielder62'
6.57
28
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz Midfielder
6.75
29
Antonio Van Wyk
Antonio Van Wyk Midfielder
6.85
47
Evan Eghosa
Evan Eghosa
Midfielder88'
6.4
7
Kingstone Mutandwa
Kingstone Mutandwa Attacker
7.01

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Evan Eghosa → Antonio Van Wyk
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Joris Boguo → Ante Bajic
4th Substitution
Event
Murat Satin → Christian Lichtenberger
3rd Substitution
76'
69'
Event
Benjamin Garcia
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Tobias Koch → Thorsten Schriebl
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Thorsten Schriebl
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
65'
62'
Event
Yussef Nasrawe → Jonas Mayer
1st Substitution
Event
Ramiz Harakate
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Ante Bajic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Oliver Steurer
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Beres Owusu
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Grazer AK and Ried highlights underlying parity despite Grazer AK's pre-designated strength. Ried's possession advantage and defensive solidity neutralized home efforts, leading to a halftime deadlock and shared spoils. This significant deviation and market misalignment reflect an unanticipated equilibrium, with efficiency holding steady amid absent xG insights. Without reds or tactical shifts, the result accurately mirrors on-field balance. Both teams gain a point, but Grazer AK may rue unfulfilled potential, while Ried demonstrates resilience against favored opposition.

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