Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir) Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM
Super Lig
Göztepe GOZ
3 – 3
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Juan - 24'
Jeh - 82' (P)
Malcom Bokele - 89'
Goal
|
Goal
Mortadha Ben Ouanes - 45+1'
Adrian Benedyczak - 52'
Filip Krastev - 76' (Own Goal)
|
Second yellow card Kerem Demirbay 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa is finished, ending in a 3-3 draw. The teams were level at 1-1 by half-time and produced an open, high-scoring second half that saw three goals apiece after the restart. Göztepe entered the fixture as the stronger side and clear pre-match favorites, yet the result marked a significant deviation from those expectations. The draw ultimately failed to align with the pre-match projection that had heavily favored the home team. Possession was relatively balanced, with Göztepe holding 53 percent compared to Kasımpaşa’s 47 percent, while no xG data was available to measure underlying quality. Kasımpaşa’s red card proved the defining event, creating a second-half distortion that altered the balance of the contest. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations despite the numerical disadvantage, producing a final outcome that reflected the chaotic nature of the evening rather than a straightforward home success.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Göztepe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
?. Altay
?. Altay
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.42
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
B. Pakkan
B. Pakkan
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.42
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
B. Birinci
B. Birinci
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.42
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Y. Susuz
Y. Susuz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.42
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Göztepe S. Stoilov
S. Stoilov
VS
Kasımpaşa E. Belözoğlu
E. Belözoğlu
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: L
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
Alanyaspor Rank: D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: L
Eyüpspor Rank: D
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kayserispor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Konyaspor Rank: D
Rizespor Rank: L
Fenerbahçe Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Göztepe
49.26%
Draw
28.8%
Away Kasımpaşa
21.95%

Movement

Changes since opening
Göztepe
+41.99%
Draw
-62.08%
Kasımpaşa
+20.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.35
18.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Göztepe
Kasımpaşa
Power Score
20.35
18.52
League Position
6
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Göztepe — Opponent-weighted form score
Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Göztepe Kasımpaşa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Göztepe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Göztepe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.58
19.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.89
38.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Göztepe +2.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Kasımpaşa -2.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Göztepe
Kasımpaşa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Göztepe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Göztepe Kasımpaşa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Göztepe Kasımpaşa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Göztepe
Kasımpaşa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Göztepe
vs
Kasımpaşa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Göztepe Kasımpaşa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Göztepe 0.37
Kasımpaşa 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Göztepe Kasımpaşa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Göztepe 0.11
Kasımpaşa 0.06
Göztepe
Kasımpaşa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GOZ had peak pressure around 93'.
  • Kasımpaşa started the game with stronger pressure.
GOZ Pressure Kasımpaşa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GOZ reached the top pressure at 93' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Göztepe GOZ Home
13 matches
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Away
Match Record
5
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
5
Goals
17
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
17
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Lis
Poland
1 M. Lis
A. Godói Santos
Brazil
3 A. Godói Santos
H. dos Santos
Brazil
5 H. dos Santos
M. Mputu
Substitution
Cameroon
26 M. Mputu
A. Kurtulan
Substitution
Turkey
2 A. Kurtulan
A. Dennis
Substitution
Nigeria
30 A. Dennis
N. Dismas
Tanzania
20 N. Dismas
M. Cherni
France
15 M. Cherni
E. Bekiroglu
Substitution
Germany
11 E. Bekiroglu
J. de Carvalho Costa
Substitution
Brazil
39 J. de Carvalho Costa
Juan
Brazil
9 Juan
A. Gianniotis
Greece
1 A. Gianniotis
G. Owusu Frimpong
Substitution
Netherlands
21 G. Owusu Frimpong
A. Arous
Tunisia
4 A. Arous
R. Nascimiento Franca
Brazil
50 R. Nascimiento Franca
C. Winck Neto
Brazil
2 C. Winck Neto
A. Baldursson
Iceland
16 A. Baldursson
K. Demirbay
Germany
26 K. Demirbay
M. Ben Ouannes
Tunisia
12 M. Ben Ouannes
F. Diabaté
Substitution
Mali
34 F. Diabaté
İ. Kahveci
Turkey
71 İ. Kahveci
A. Benedyczak
Substitution
Poland
19 A. Benedyczak

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı (İzmir)
Capacity
20040
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Çağdaş Altay
Burak Pakkan
Bahtiyar Birinci
Yusuf Susuz

Statistics

Possession
GOZ
54%
Kasımpaşa
46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 3
49 Dangerous attacks 27
53 Possession 47
4 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
5 Successful Dribbles 8
5 Substitutions 3
1 Penalties 0
7 Dribble Attempts 14
7 Goal Kicks 9
2 Hit Woodwork 0
28 Successful Headers 27
78 Ball Safe 77
11 Goal Attempts 4
24 Throwins 14
2 Assists 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2
106 Attacks 77

Possession

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
28 Successful Long Passes 25
70 Successful Passes Percentage 66
233 Successful Passes 200
66 Long Passes 76
333 Passes 304
13 Key Passes 5

Defensive

2 Saves 3
12 Tackles 10
4 Interceptions 8

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 1
28 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Çağdaş Altay

Starting XI ▼

1
Mateusz Lis
Mateusz Lis Goalkeeper
3
Allan Godói
Allan Godói Defender
5
Héliton
Héliton Defender
26
Malcom Bokele
Malcom Bokele Defender
14
Guilherme Luiz
Guilherme Luiz
Attacker90+3'
2
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Arda Okan Kurtulan Midfielder
77
Ogün Bayrak
Ogün Bayrak
Defender66'
15
Amin Cherni
Amin Cherni Midfielder
20
Novatus Miroshi
Novatus Miroshi Midfielder
30
Anthony Dennis
Anthony Dennis Midfielder
10
Filip Krastev
Filip Krastev
Midfielder57'
9
Juan
Juan Attacker
11
Efkan Bekiroğlu
Efkan Bekiroğlu Attacker
8
Alexis Antunes
Alexis Antunes
Midfielder57'
39
Janderson
Janderson Attacker
19
Jeh
Jeh
Attacker58'
Referee : Çağdaş Altay

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Gianniotis
Andreas Gianniotis Goalkeeper
2
Cláudio Winck
Cláudio Winck Defender
4
Adem Arous
Adem Arous Defender
21
Godfried Frimpong
Godfried Frimpong Defender
20
Nicholas Opoku
Nicholas Opoku
Defender84'
50
Rodrigo Becão
Rodrigo Becão Defender
12
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Mortadha Ben Ouanes Midfielder
16
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Andri Fannar Baldursson Midfielder
26
Kerem Demirbay
Kerem Demirbay Midfielder
34
Fousseni Diabaté
Fousseni Diabaté Midfielder
29
Taylan Aydın
Taylan Aydın
Defender90+6'
71
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Midfielder
19
Adrian Benedyczak
Adrian Benedyczak Attacker
23
Cenk Tosun
Cenk Tosun
Attacker88'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Héliton
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+10'
90+8'
Event
Cláudio Winck
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Taylan Aydın → Fousseni Diabaté
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Kerem Demirbay
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Kerem Demirbay
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Guilherme Luiz → Malcom Bokele
7th Substitution
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Emre Belözoğlu
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Malcom Bokele
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
89'
88'
Event
Cenk Tosun → Adrian Benedyczak
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Nicholas Opoku → Godfried Frimpong
5th Substitution
Event
Jeh
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
82'
Event
Jeh
Penalty awarded
80'
76'
Event
Filip Krastev
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
74'
Event
Andreas Gianniotis
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Adrian Benedyczak
Goal disallowed
Event
Ogün Bayrak → Arda Okan Kurtulan
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Jeh → Janderson
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Alexis Antunes → Efkan Bekiroğlu
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Filip Krastev → Anthony Dennis
2nd Substitution
57'
52'
Event
Adrian Benedyczak
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Novatus Miroshi
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
45+3'
45+1'
Event
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Header / 2nd Goal
35'
Event
İrfan Can Kahveci
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Juan
1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Juan
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Göztepe exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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