Górnik Zabrze vs Cracovia Kraków Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Arena Zabrze Sat, 4 Apr - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze
3 Winner 0
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Yvan Ikia Dimi - 11'
Jaroslaw Kubicki - 78'
Michal Rakoczy - 82'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has concluded with Górnik Zabrze securing a 2-0 victory over Cracovia Kraków at full-time. The hosts established their advantage early, taking a 1-0 lead into the halftime break before adding a second goal to seal the win. This outcome fully aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Górnik Zabrze with a 51.1% win probability. Cracovia Kraków entered the match with only a 20.6% chance of an away victory, while the likelihood of a draw stood at 28.3%. Despite being the expected winners, Górnik Zabrze's performance represented a significant deviation level in their favor, yielding a 48.9% positive swing beyond the initial market projections. On the pitch, Górnik Zabrze controlled a slight majority of the ball, finishing with 53% possession compared to Cracovia Kraków's 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was strictly consistent with the quality of chances created. However, the overall efficiency shift was in line with pre-match expectations for the stronger side. The match proceeded evenly in terms of discipline, without any red cards to impact the tactical flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Górnik Zabrze showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Kupsik
A. Kupsik
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
P. Podbielski
P. Podbielski
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
K. Wójcik
K. Wójcik
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
?. Kuźma
?. Kuźma
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Górnik Zabrze M. Gašparík
M. Gašparík
VS
Cracovia Kraków L. Elsner
L. Elsner
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.06
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 70 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 D
Katowice Rank: 64 L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 L
Nieciecza Rank: 51 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: 64 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 54 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 6 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Górnik Zabrze
51.13%
Draw
28.31%
Away Cracovia Kraków
20.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.2
59.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Górnik Zabrze
Cracovia Kraków
Power Score
65.2
59.82
League Position
3
10
Global Rank
310
474

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Górnik Zabrze — Opponent-weighted form score
Cracovia Kraków — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Górnik Zabrze Cracovia Kraków

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Górnik Zabrze

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cracovia Kraków

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Górnik Zabrze ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cracovia Kraków
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.62
39.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.89
34.62
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Górnik Zabrze -0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Cracovia Kraków +0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Górnik Zabrze
Cracovia Kraków
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Górnik Zabrze ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cracovia Kraków
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Górnik Zabrze Cracovia Kraków
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Górnik Zabrze Cracovia Kraków
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Górnik Zabrze
Cracovia Kraków
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Górnik Zabrze
vs
Cracovia Kraków
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Górnik Zabrze Cracovia Kraków
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Górnik Zabrze 0.22
Cracovia Kraków 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Górnik Zabrze Cracovia Kraków
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Górnik Zabrze 0.00
Cracovia Kraków 0.04
Górnik Zabrze
Cracovia Kraków
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Home
35 matches
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków Away
Match Record
12
Wins
17
6
Draws
6
17
Losses
12
Goals
40
Goals Scored
54
54
Goals Conceded
40
-14
Goal Difference
+14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
M. Łubik
Poland
1 M. Łubik
P. Olkowski
Substitution
Poland
16 P. Olkowski
R. Janicki
Poland
26 R. Janicki
J. Sánchez Guillén
Spain
20 J. Sánchez Guillén
E. Janža
Substitution
Slovenia
64 E. Janža
P. Hellebrand
Substitution
Czech Republic
8 P. Hellebrand
Y. Ikia Dimi
France
7 Y. Ikia Dimi
L. Sadílek
Substitution
Czech Republic
13 L. Sadílek
J. Kubicki
Poland
14 J. Kubicki
M. Khlan
Ukraine
33 M. Khlan
S. Liseth
Substitution
Norway
23 S. Liseth
S. Madejski
Poland
13 S. Madejski
M. Perković
Croatia
39 M. Perković
B. Traoré
France
61 B. Traoré
G. Henriksson
Sweden
4 G. Henriksson
B. Šutalo
Croatia
21 B. Šutalo
A. Hasić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Hasić
A. Al-Ammari
Sweden
6 A. Al-Ammari
B. Selan
Substitution
Slovenia
5 B. Selan
P. Sans Lopez
Substitution
Spain
11 P. Sans Lopez
J. Batoum
Substitution
Cameroon
29 J. Batoum
D. Kameri
Substitution
Austria
70 D. Kameri

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena Zabrze
Capacity
24413
Attendance
22324
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adam Kupsik
P. Podbielski
Karol Wójcik
Łukasz Kuźma

Statistics

Possession
Górnik Zabrze
53%
Cracovia Kraków
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 7
67 Dangerous attacks 55
53 Possession 47
4 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Attempts 7
7 Successful Dribbles 7
15 Throwins 24
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
10 Goal Kicks 6
82 Ball Safe 77
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 0
21 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

96 Attacks 73
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 82
66 Long Passes 44
475 Passes 412
398 Successful Passes 337
30 Successful Long Passes 14
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

3 Saves 1
15 Tackles 23
44 Duels Won 52
19 Interceptions 12

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 16
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

1
Marcel Lubik
Marcel Lubik Goalkeeper
16
Pawel Olkowski
Pawel Olkowski Defender
21
Mathias Dahl Sauer
Mathias Dahl Sauer
Midfielder83'
20
Josema
Josema Defender
26
Rafal Janicki
Rafal Janicki Defender
64
Erik Janza
Erik Janza Defender
67
Ondrej Zmrzly
Ondrej Zmrzly
Defender81'
7
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Yvan Ikia Dimi Midfielder
8
Patrik Hellebrand
Patrik Hellebrand Midfielder
28
Bastien Donio
Bastien Donio
Midfielder83'
13
Lukas Sadilek
Lukas Sadilek Midfielder
36
Michal Rakoczy
Michal Rakoczy
Midfielder81'
14
Jaroslaw Kubicki
Jaroslaw Kubicki Midfielder
33
Maksym Khlan
Maksym Khlan Midfielder
23
Sondre Liseth
Sondre Liseth Attacker
61
Michal Sacek
Michal Sacek
Defender72'
Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

13
Sebastian Madejski
Sebastian Madejski Goalkeeper
4
Gustav Henriksson
Gustav Henriksson Defender
21
Bosko Sutalo
Bosko Sutalo Defender
39
Mauro Perkovic
Mauro Perkovic Defender
61
Brahim Traoré
Brahim Traoré Defender
5
Beno Selan
Beno Selan Midfielder
18
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
Attacker62'
6
Amir Al-Ammari
Amir Al-Ammari Midfielder
11
Pau Sans
Pau Sans Midfielder
10
Maxime Dominguez
Maxime Dominguez
Midfielder62'
14
Ajdin Hasic
Ajdin Hasic Midfielder
29
Jean Batoum
Jean Batoum Attacker
19
Mateusz Tabisz
Mateusz Tabisz
Midfielder62'
70
Dijon Kameri
Dijon Kameri Attacker
99
Gabriel Charpentier
Gabriel Charpentier
Attacker77'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bastien Donio → Patrik Hellebrand
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Mathias Dahl Sauer → Pawel Olkowski
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Michal Rakoczy
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
82'
Event
Ondrej Zmrzly → Erik Janza
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Michal Rakoczy → Lukas Sadilek
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Jaroslaw Kubicki
Header / 2nd Goal
78'
77'
Event
Gabriel Charpentier → Dijon Kameri
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Gustav Henriksson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Michal Sacek → Sondre Liseth
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Maksym Khlan
Goal disallowed
62'
62'
Event
Kahveh Zahiroleslam → Beno Selan
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Mateusz Tabisz → Jean Batoum
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Maxime Dominguez → Pau Sans
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Bosko Sutalo
Handball / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Header / 1st Goal
11'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Górnik Zabrze exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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