Genoa vs Roma Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Sun, 8 Mar - 5:00 PM
Serie A
Genoa GEN
2 Winner 1
Roma ROM
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 5:00 PM
Junior Messias - 52' (P)
Vitinha - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Evan Ndicka - 55'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Genoa 2–1 Roma. The result saw Genoa take the points. Genoa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 36%–64%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Genoa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Bonacina
K. Bonacina
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
A. Colombo
A. Colombo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
M. Rossi
M. Rossi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
V. Vecchi
V. Vecchi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
VS
Roma G. Gasperini
G. Gasperini
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cremonese Rank: D
Napoli Rank: L
Lazio Rank: L
Bologna Rank: W
Parma Rank: D
Cagliari Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: W
Lecce Rank: W
Atalanta Rank: L
Genoa Rank: W
Juventus Rank: L
Como Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genoa
22.08%
Draw
30.37%
Away Roma
47.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.71
60.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genoa
Roma
Power Score
35.71
60.71
League Position
13
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Roma — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genoa Roma

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Genoa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Roma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genoa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Roma
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.97
16.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.17
35.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Genoa +2.10 Efficiency Index
vs
Roma -2.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Genoa
Roma
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genoa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Roma
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Genoa Roma
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Genoa Roma
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Genoa
Roma
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genoa GEN Home
9 matches
Roma ROM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
1
Goals
8
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
8
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:19:43+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity
33205
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kevin Bonacina
Andrea Colombo
Marcello Rossi
Valerio Vecchi

Statistics

Possession
GEN
42%
ROM
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 2
39 Dangerous attacks 47
36 Possession 64
3 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Dribble Attempts 9
2 Successful Dribbles 5
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
8 Goal Kicks 10
25 Throwins 30
1 Injuries 2
10 Goal Attempts 3
29 Successful Headers 33
115 Ball Safe 147
4 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
1 Assists 0

Attacking

102 Attacks 102
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
62 Successful Passes Percentage 77
253 Passes 456
56 Long Passes 65
156 Successful Passes 349
18 Successful Long Passes 20
7 Key Passes 4

Defensive

14 Tackles 7
15 Interceptions 6
0 Saves 3
62 Duels Won 56

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 8
14 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

11 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 5

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Bryan Cristante
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Jan Ziolkowski → Gianluca Mancini
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Robinio Vaz → Zeki Çelik
8th Substitution
Event
Vitinha
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
Event
Aarón Martín → Mikael Egill Ellertsson
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Vitinha → Caleb Ekuban
6th Substitution
75'
70'
Event
Daniele Ghilardi → Devyne Rensch
5th Substitution
Event
Ruslan Malinovskyi → Junior Messias
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Lorenzo Colombo → Jeff Ekhator
3rd Substitution
64'
56'
Event
Neil El Aynaoui → Lorenzo Pellegrini
2nd Substitution
55'
Event
Evan Ndicka
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Junior Messias
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
52'
46'
Event
Bryan Cristante → Lorenzo Venturino
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Donyell Malen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Patrizio Masini
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
16'
12'
Event
Evan Ndicka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Mile Svilar from Roma makes a great save, denying the attempt in the top right corner. The assist came from Aarón Martín.
90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with Genoa triumphing over Roma, finishing 2-1.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Genoa 2, Roma 1.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma, following a foul by Johan Vásquez.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bryan Cristante from Roma takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Robinio Vaz from Roma committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after a play that resulted in a save by Mile Svilar.
90
Update Update
Stefano Sabelli from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
89
Update Update
Bryan Cristante from Roma committed a foul.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bryan Cristante of Roma has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
89
Update Update
Patrizio Masini from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
86
Update Update
Vítinha from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Bryan Cristante from Roma committed a foul.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Robinio Vaz comes on in place of Zeki Çelik.
84
Update Update
Offside call against Roma. Manu Koné has been flagged for being offside.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Jan Ziólkowski replaces Gianluca Mancini.
81
Update Update
Daniele Ghilardi from Roma committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Genoa takes the lead 2-1 against Roma. Vítinha scores with a close-range right-footed shot!
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Aarón Martín comes on to replace Mikael Ellertsson due to an injury.
77
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
76
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Vítinha, who set him up with a header.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Vítinha replaces Caleb Ekuban.
74
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Manu Koné of Roma fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma after Mikael Ellertsson gave it away.
70
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left following a corner kick.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after a foul by Manu Koné.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Daniele Ghilardi comes on to replace Devyne Rensch.
69
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
69
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
67
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Kostas Tsimikas from Roma committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Deyvne Rensch from Roma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa committed a foul.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Lorenzo Colombo replaces Jeff Ekhator.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma after Alessandro Marcandalli allowed the ball to go out.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Ruslan Malinovskyi comes on to replace Junior Messias.
61
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Donyell Malen from Roma attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
58
Update Update
Evan Ndicka from Roma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Jeff Ekhator of Genoa committed a foul.
58
Update Update
Offside call against Roma. Donyell Malen has been flagged for being offside.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Neil El Aynaoui comes on to replace Lorenzo Pellegrini.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Genoa 1, Roma 1. Evan Ndicka from Roma scores with a header from the center of the box, directing it into the left corner following a corner kick.
55
Update Update
The attempt on goal is denied. Gianluca Mancini from Roma heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets intercepted. The assist came from Lorenzo Pellegrini, who delivered a cross.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma after a deflection off Patrizio Masini.
53
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Caleb Ekuban of Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the left. The assist came from Jeff Ekhator, who set him up with a header after a quick counterattack.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Genoa takes the lead, 1-0 against Roma. Junior Messias steps up and successfully converts the penalty with a left-footed strike.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after a foul by Niccolò Pisilli.
50
Update Update
Genoa has been awarded a penalty! Mikael Ellertsson was fouled inside the box.
50
Update Update
Lorenzo Pellegrini of Roma has given away a penalty following a foul committed inside the box.
49
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
48
Update Update
Match interruption - Genoa.
47
Update Update
Manu Koné from Roma commits a handball.
45
Update Update
Evan Ndicka from Roma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Caleb Ekuban from Genoa attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but sent it over the bar. The assist came from Junior Messias, who delivered a cross.
45
Update Update
Caleb Ekuban from Genoa committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Genoa and Roma.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Bryan Cristante comes on to replace Lorenzo Venturino.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Genoa 0, Roma 0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Junior Messias from Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
42
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
41
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Leo Østigård from Genoa.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Donyell Malen of Roma has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
40
Update Update
Donyell Malen from Roma committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Leo Østigård from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Niccolò Pisilli from Roma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Jeff Ekhator from Genoa committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Offside call against Roma. Donyell Malen is caught in an offside position.
35
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Devyne Rensch from Roma attempted a header from the right side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Kostas Tsimikas.
34
Update Update
Morten Frendrup from Genoa committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Manu Koné from Roma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
31
Update Update
Zeki Çelik from Roma committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Offside call against Roma. Donyell Malen has been caught offside.
30
Update Update
Mile Svilar from Roma was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Jeff Ekhator from Genoa has been awarded a free kick on the left flank.
29
Update Update
Jeff Ekhator from Genoa was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
27
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Patrizio Masini from Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area...
27
Update Update
Caleb Ekuban from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
27
Update Update
Gianluca Mancini from Roma committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Stefano Sabelli from Genoa earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
26
Update Update
Niccolò Pisilli from Roma committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Stefano Sabelli from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Lorenzo Pellegrini from Roma committed a foul.
24
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Junior Messias from Genoa takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma after Morten Frendrup allowed the ball to go out.
21
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Roma, following a foul by Johan Vásquez.
21
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Donyell Malen from Roma takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
19
Update Update
Donyell Malen of Roma has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
19
Update Update
Leo Østigård from Genoa committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Offside call against Roma. Lorenzo Pellegrini is caught in an offside position.
16
Update Update
Lorenzo Pellegrini from Roma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Patrizio Masini of Genoa has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
16
Update Update
Patrizio Masini from Genoa committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Patrizio Masini from Genoa committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Deyvne Rensch from Roma has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Evan Ndicka of Roma has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
12
Update Update
Evan Ndicka from Roma committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Jeff Ekhator from Genoa was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
11
Update Update
Deyvne Rensch from Roma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Patrizio Masini from Genoa committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Niccolò Pisilli from Roma committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Patrizio Masini from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Junior Messias from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Offside call against Genoa. Jeff Ekhator has been flagged for being offside.
9
Update Update
Zeki Çelik from Roma committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Gianluca Mancini of Roma.
6
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
5
Update Update
Gianluca Mancini from Roma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Genoa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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