Genk vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Luminus Arena Today - 6:30 PM
Pro League
Genk GNK
Versus
Sporting Charleroi SPC
KICKOFF : Today - 6:30 PM
Round 4 Conference League Play-off Group

CONTEXT

Genk welcome Sporting Charleroi to Luminus Arena for a Conference League Play-off Group fixture in the Pro League's 2025/2026 season. The hosts hold a commanding power score of 24.93 against the visitors' 16.15, yielding an 8.8-point advantage that marks them as the stronger side. Genk's form rating of 19.56 towers over Charleroi's 7.67, aligning with their 7th-place league standing versus 11th. This international cup encounter lacks granular xG data, rendering set-piece, efficiency, and transition insights unavailable amid low-confidence proxies. Genk's structural and momentum edges position them to dictate play at home, where they aim to capitalize on Charleroi's inferior metrics in this competitive stage.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Genk enjoys a clear structural superiority with an 8.8-point power advantage over Sporting Charleroi.
  • Form: Genk's form score of 19.56 far exceeds Sporting Charleroi's 7.67.
  • Squad: Genk ranks 7th in the Pro League, ahead of 11th-placed Sporting Charleroi.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance unavailable due to missing xG data and low confidence.
  • xVariable: xG variable analysis unavailable as data not enabled.
  • Market: Genk 49.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27% (Δ+0%) | Sporting Charleroi 23.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
VS
Sporting Charleroi M. Kohnen
M. Kohnen
1.55
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: W
OH Leuven Rank: D
Antwerp Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: D
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
Dender Rank: D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 12 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genk
49.52%
Draw
26.96%
Away Sporting Charleroi
23.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.93
16.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genk
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
24.93
16.15
League Position
7
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genk Sporting Charleroi

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genk GNK Home
48 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
21
Wins
15
12
Draws
12
15
Losses
21
Goals
77
Goals Scored
60
60
Goals Conceded
77
+17
Goal Difference
-17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:03:38+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Kiaba Mounganga
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
Z. El Ouahdi
77 Z. El Ouahdi
M. Sadick Aliu
3 M. Sadick Aliu
M. Smets
6 M. Smets
Y. Medina Ortiz
19 Y. Medina Ortiz
I. Bangoura
21 I. Bangoura
K. Karetsas
20 K. Karetsas
D. Heymans
38 D. Heymans
B. Heynen
8 B. Heynen
J. Ito
10 J. Ito
R. Mirisola
29 R. Mirisola
M. Kone
30 M. Kone
M. Nzita
24 M. Nzita
C. keita
95 C. keita
A. Ousou
4 A. Ousou
L. Blum
27 L. Blum
A. Boukamir
56 A. Boukamir
E. Camara
5 E. Camara
A. Bernier
17 A. Bernier
P. Pflücke
14 P. Pflücke
K. Van Den Kerkhof
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
A. Colassin
25 A. Colassin

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 4 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
Luminus Arena
Capacity
24956
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nicolas Laforge
Laurent Conotte
Vito Divincenzo
Massimiliano Ledda

Expected Lineup

Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
6.71
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Midfielder
6.94
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas Midfielder
7
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola Centre Forward
6.74
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Central Midfield
7.25
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Central Midfield
7.26
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Right Back
7.14
3
Mujaid Sadick
Mujaid Sadick Right Back
6.77
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Left Back
7.12
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Defensive Midfield
6.73
19
Yaimar Medina
Yaimar Medina Left Back
6.78
Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
6.86
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin Centre Forward
6.63
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Left Back
6.72
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Right Wing
6.73
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Defensive Midfield
6.88
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Right Back
6.85
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Left Wing
6.82
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Attacking Midfield
6.81
56
Amine Boukamir
Amine Boukamir Defensive Midfield
6.72
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Right Back
6.63
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Left Back
6.7

CONCLUSION

Genk's pronounced power and form edges make them favorites to prevail at Luminus Arena against Sporting Charleroi in this Conference League Play-off Group clash. The 8.8-point advantage and higher league position underscore the hosts' control potential, despite absent details on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces from lacking xG. Charleroi face a steep challenge to overturn inferior ratings in this international cup stage, with Genk's home strength likely tipping the scales toward a structured victory.

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