Genk vs OH Leuven Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Luminus Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Genk GNK
0 – 0
OH Leuven OHL
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 2 Conference League Play-off Group

CONTEXT

The match between Genk and OH Leuven is finished, ending in a full-time score of 0-0. The teams were also level at half-time, with neither side able to create a breakthrough in a largely uneventful contest. Pre-match expectations had Genk as clear favorites at 57 percent for a home win, with a draw rated at only 24 percent. The goalless result therefore marked a significant deviation for Genk, who entered the fixture as the stronger team but failed to convert that status into victory. This outcome did not align with the pre-match projection, as the anticipated home success never materialized. OH Leuven controlled more of the ball with 57 percent possession to Genk’s 43 percent, yet both attacks remained blunt. No red cards were issued and no major events altered the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout, leaving the final score as a fair reflection of a tightly contested but unproductive afternoon.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Genk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
W. Smet
W. Smet
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
M. De Cuyper
M. De Cuyper
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
N. Maszowez
N. Maszowez
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
K. Van Damme
K. Van Damme
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
VS
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: D
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Gent Rank: W
Standard Liège Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
Anderlecht Rank: L
Club Brugge Rank: L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genk
56.96%
Draw
24.04%
Away OH Leuven
18.99%

Movement

Changes since opening
Genk
+51.43%
Draw
-67.19%
OH Leuven
+15.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.49
18.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genk
OH Leuven
Power Score
24.49
18.52
League Position
7
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genk OH Leuven

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.33
16.32
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.32
42.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Genk +2.29 Efficiency Index
vs
OH Leuven -2.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Genk
OH Leuven
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Genk OH Leuven
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Genk OH Leuven
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Genk
OH Leuven
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Genk
vs
OH Leuven
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Genk OH Leuven
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Genk 0.36
OH Leuven 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Genk OH Leuven
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Genk 0.00
OH Leuven 0.00
Genk
OH Leuven
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNK had peak pressure around 26'.
  • OHL started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure OHL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 26' (86.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genk GNK Home
20 matches
OH Leuven OHL Away
Match Record
13
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
13
Goals
45
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
45
+24
Goal Difference
-24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:06:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Kiaba Mounganga
Belgium
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
J. Ndenge Kongolo
Substitution
Belgium
44 J. Ndenge Kongolo
M. Sadick Aliu
Spain
3 M. Sadick Aliu
M. Smets
Belgium
6 M. Smets
J. Ito
Substitution
Japan
10 J. Ito
B. Heynen
Belgium
8 B. Heynen
I. Bangoura
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
Z. El Ouahdi
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
K. Karetsas
Substitution
Belgium
20 K. Karetsas
D. Heymans
Substitution
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
R. Mirisola
Substitution
Belgium
29 R. Mirisola
M. Prévôt
France
16 M. Prévôt
T. Ominami
Japan
5 T. Ominami
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
T. Akimoto
Japan
30 T. Akimoto
W. George
Substitution
Belgium
6 W. George
S. Schrijvers
Belgium
8 S. Schrijvers
Ó. Gil Regaño
Spain
27 Ó. Gil Regaño
Y. Maziz
Substitution
France
10 Y. Maziz
S. Kaba
Substitution
Guinea
39 S. Kaba
H. Teklab
Substitution
Germany
14 H. Teklab

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
Luminus Arena
Capacity
24956
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Wim Smet
Michiel De Cuyper
Nicolas Maszowez
Kevin Van Damme

Statistics

Possession
GNK
45%
OHL
55%

Top Statistics

2 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 6
44 Dangerous attacks 46
43 Possession 57
3 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 4
63 Ball Safe 89
12 Goal Attempts 5
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
11 Dribble Attempts 16
21 Throwins 17
6 Goal Kicks 10
5 Successful Dribbles 7

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
114 Attacks 120

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 79
23 Successful Long Passes 32
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
271 Successful Passes 379
357 Passes 477
12 Key Passes 6
50 Long Passes 77

Defensive

14 Interceptions 9
21 Tackles 18
1 Saves 6

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 16
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Wim Smet

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
3
Mujaid Sadick
Mujaid Sadick Defender
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Defender
44
Josué Kongolo
Josué Kongolo Defender
18
Joris Kayembe
Joris Kayembe
Defender65'
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Midfielder
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Midfielder
19
Yaimar Medina
Yaimar Medina
Defender46'
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Midfielder
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas Attacker
7
Jarne Steuckers
Jarne Steuckers
Attacker65'
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola Attacker
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout
Attacker46'
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Attacker
30
Ayumu Yokoyama
Ayumu Yokoyama
Attacker76'
Referee : Wim Smet

Starting XI ▼

16
Maxence Prévot
Maxence Prévot Goalkeeper
5
Takuma Ominami
Takuma Ominami Defender
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
6
Wouter George
Wouter George Midfielder
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy
Midfielder69'
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers Midfielder
27
Óscar Gil
Óscar Gil Midfielder
30
Takahiro Akimoto
Takahiro Akimoto Midfielder
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Attacker
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens
Midfielder82'
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Attacker
7
Thibaud Verlinden
Thibaud Verlinden
Attacker69'
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba Attacker
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Attacker82'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Maxence Prévot
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Óscar Gil
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi → Sory Kaba
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Mathieu Maertens → Youssef Maziz
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Lukasz Lakomy
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ayumu Yokoyama → Daan Heymans
7th Substitution
76'
69'
Event
Thibaud Verlinden → Henok Teklab
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Lukasz Lakomy → Wouter George
5th Substitution
Event
Jarne Steuckers
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Joris Kayembe → Josué Kongolo
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Jarne Steuckers → Konstantinos Karetsas
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Aaron Bibout → Robin Mirisola
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Yaimar Medina → Junya Ito
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Robin Mirisola
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
42'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Genk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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