Frosinone vs Calcio Padova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Benito Stirpe Sun, 5 Apr - 3:15 PM
Serie B
Frosinone FRO
2 Winner 0
Calcio Padova PAD
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 3:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Antonio Raimondo - 25'
Francesco Gelli - 29'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Frosinone 0–0 Calcio Padova. The match ended in a draw. Frosinone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 63%–37%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Frosinone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Pascarella
M. Pascarella
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
C. Aldi
C. Aldi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
D. Palermo
D. Palermo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
N. Turrini
N. Turrini
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
VS
Calcio Padova R. Breda
R. Breda
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 56 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Cesena Rank: 53 D
Sampdoria Rank: 51 W
Pescara Rank: 47 D
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: 63 L
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Catanzaro Rank: 61 L
Avellino Rank: 51 L
Spezia Rank: 52 D
Modena Rank: 59 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Frosinone
67.96%
Draw
18.88%
Away Calcio Padova
13.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.93
47.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Frosinone
Calcio Padova
Power Score
65.93
47.23
League Position
2
15
Global Rank
288
815

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Frosinone Calcio Padova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Calcio Padova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.86
34.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.59
42.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Frosinone +0.82 Efficiency Index
vs
Calcio Padova -0.82 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Calcio Padova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Calcio Padova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Frosinone Calcio Padova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Frosinone Calcio Padova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Calcio Padova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Frosinone
vs
Calcio Padova
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Frosinone Calcio Padova
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Frosinone 0.40
Calcio Padova 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Frosinone Calcio Padova
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Frosinone 0.00
Calcio Padova 0.03
Frosinone
Calcio Padova
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Frosinone FRO Home
6 matches
Calcio Padova PAD Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
6
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:04:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
L. Palmisani
Italy
22 L. Palmisani
A. Oyono Omva Torque
Substitution
France
20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
I. Monterisi
Italy
30 I. Monterisi
G. Calvani
Italy
3 G. Calvani
G. Bracaglia
Italy
79 G. Bracaglia
G. Calò
Italy
14 G. Calò
F. Gelli
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Gelli
M. Cichella
Italy
16 M. Cichella
F. Ghedjemis
Substitution
France
7 F. Ghedjemis
A. Raimondo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Raimondo
G. Kvernadze
Substitution
Georgia
17 G. Kvernadze
A. Sorrentino
Italy
22 A. Sorrentino
M. Perrotta
Italy
5 M. Perrotta
L. Villa
Italy
55 L. Villa
F. Belli
Substitution
Italy
4 F. Belli
C. Faedo
Italy
72 C. Faedo
P. Fusi
Substitution
Italy
8 P. Fusi
J. Harder
Substitution
Italy
44 J. Harder
L. Di Maggio
Italy
23 L. Di Maggio
P. Ghiglione
Substitution
Italy
18 P. Ghiglione
F. Di Mariano
Substitution
Italy
77 F. Di Mariano
K. Lasagna
Italy
15 K. Lasagna

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Benito Stirpe
Capacity
16227
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mattia Pascarella
Ciro Aldi
Domenico Palermo
Niccolò Turrini

Statistics

Possession
FRO
60%
PAD
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 3
60 Dangerous attacks 36
63 Possession 37
7 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

20 Dribble Attempts 9
86 Ball Safe 83
14 Goal Attempts 6
9 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 0
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
23 Throwins 23
4 Goal Kicks 14
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

110 Attacks 69
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

62 Long Passes 59
330 Successful Passes 163
427 Passes 250
77 Successful Passes Percentage 65
14 Key Passes 10
24 Successful Long Passes 18
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

Defensive

2 Saves 6
59 Duels Won 57
14 Tackles 25
4 Interceptions 3

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 16
7 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Niccolò Turrini

Starting XI ▼

22
Lorenzo Palmisani
Lorenzo Palmisani Goalkeeper
3
Gabriele Calvani
Gabriele Calvani Defender
20
Anthony Oyono
Anthony Oyono Defender
21
Jérémy Oyono
Jérémy Oyono
Defender80'
30
Ilario Monterisi
Ilario Monterisi Defender
79
Gabriele Bracaglia
Gabriele Bracaglia Defender
10
Francesco Gelli
Francesco Gelli Midfielder
2
Giorgio Cittadini
Giorgio Cittadini
Defender87'
14
Giacomo Calò
Giacomo Calò Midfielder
16
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Cichella Midfielder
7
Farès Ghedjemis
Farès Ghedjemis Attacker
40
Seydou Fini
Seydou Fini
Attacker74'
9
Antonio Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo Attacker
28
Massimo Zilli
Massimo Zilli
Attacker80'
17
Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze Attacker
80
Antonio Fiori
Antonio Fiori
Attacker74'
Referee : Niccolò Turrini

Starting XI ▼

22
Alessandro Sorrentino
Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper
4
Francesco Belli
Francesco Belli Defender
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli
Midfielder46'
5
Marco Perrotta
Marco Perrotta Defender
55
Lorenzo Villa
Lorenzo Villa Defender
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Midfielder
7
Kevin Varas
Kevin Varas
Midfielder58'
18
Paolo Ghiglione
Paolo Ghiglione Midfielder
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale
Defender58'
23
Luca Di Maggio
Luca Di Maggio Midfielder
44
Jonas Harder
Jonas Harder Midfielder
6
Lorenzo Crisetig
Lorenzo Crisetig
Midfielder46'
72
Carlo Faedo
Carlo Faedo Midfielder
15
Kevin Lasagna
Kevin Lasagna Attacker
77
Francesco Di Mariano
Francesco Di Mariano Attacker
11
Alessandro Seghetti
Alessandro Seghetti
Attacker71'

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Kevin Varas
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Giorgio Cittadini → Francesco Gelli
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Massimo Zilli → Antonio Raimondo
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Jérémy Oyono → Anthony Oyono
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Antonio Fiori → Giorgi Kvernadze
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Seydou Fini → Farès Ghedjemis
6th Substitution
74'
71'
Event
Alessandro Seghetti → Francesco Di Mariano
5th Substitution
Event
Francesco Gelli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
62'
Event
Lorenzo Crisetig
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
58'
Event
Kevin Varas → Pietro Fusi
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Giulio Favale → Paolo Ghiglione
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Alessandro Capelli → Francesco Belli
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Lorenzo Crisetig → Jonas Harder
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Francesco Gelli
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
29'
Event
Antonio Raimondo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
25'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Frosinone exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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