Fredrikstad vs Vålerenga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
1 – 1
Vålerenga Vålerenga
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Daniel Eid - 79'
Goal
|
Goal
M. Grundetjern - 25'

CONTEXT

The match between Fredrikstad and Vålerenga is now finished, with the full-time score ending 1-0 to Fredrikstad. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as the home side claimed victory in a contest where they had not been widely projected to succeed. Fredrikstad ultimately proved the stronger team on the day, overturning the anticipated balance of the fixture through determined second-half play. Possession was almost evenly split, with Fredrikstad holding 51 percent and Vålerenga 49 percent. No expected goals data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, yet the outcome did not align with the pre-match projection, confirming a clear mismatch between forecasts and on-field execution. No red cards were shown to either side, so the result carried no impact from dismissals or major disciplinary events. Fredrikstad's narrow win therefore reflected effective adjustments after the interval that allowed them to secure the points despite the unexpected nature of the success.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fredrikstad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Amland
S. Amland
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
O. Skogsrud Haukåsen
O. Skogsrud Haukåsen
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
C. Jørgensen
C. Jørgensen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Fredrikstad A. Hagen
A. Hagen
VS
Vålerenga G. Bakke
G. Bakke
1.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aalesund Rank: W
KFUM Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: L
Viking Rank: L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viking Rank: L
Rosenborg Rank: W
Sandefjord Rank: W
Viking Rank: L
Kristiansund Rank: D
Rosenborg Rank: L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fredrikstad
4.48%
Draw
90.56%
Away Vålerenga
4.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fredrikstad
-0.47%
Draw
+1.04%
Vålerenga
-0.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.9
24.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fredrikstad
Vålerenga
Power Score
24.9
24.48
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fredrikstad — Opponent-weighted form score
Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fredrikstad Vålerenga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fredrikstad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fredrikstad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vålerenga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.43
41.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.94
38.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fredrikstad -0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Vålerenga +0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fredrikstad
Vålerenga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fredrikstad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vålerenga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fredrikstad Vålerenga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fredrikstad Vålerenga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fredrikstad
Vålerenga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fredrikstad
vs
Vålerenga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fredrikstad Vålerenga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fredrikstad 0.33
Vålerenga 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fredrikstad Vålerenga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fredrikstad 0.02
Vålerenga 0.02
Fredrikstad
Vålerenga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vålerenga had peak pressure around 29'.
  • Fredrikstad started the game with stronger pressure.
Fredrikstad Pressure Vålerenga Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vålerenga reached the top pressure at 29' (68.84).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad Home
16 matches
Vålerenga Vålerenga Away
Match Record
7
Wins
6
3
Draws
3
6
Losses
7
Goals
22
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
22
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:07:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Børsheim
Norway
77 M. Børsheim
D. Eid
Norway
16 D. Eid
S. Holm
Sweden
6 S. Holm
U. Fredriksen
Norway
12 U. Fredriksen
S. Owusu
Substitution
Norway
28 S. Owusu
S. Sørløkk
Substitution
Norway
13 S. Sørløkk
O. Øhlenschlæger
Denmark
20 O. Øhlenschlæger
L. Owusu
Substitution
Ghana
24 L. Owusu
R. Shein
Substitution
Estonia
21 R. Shein
F. Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Norway
19 F. Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
S. Laghzaoui
Substitution
Norway
9 S. Laghzaoui
O. Hedvall
Denmark
1 O. Hedvall
K. Finnsson
Iceland
2 K. Finnsson
I. Näsberg
Norway
37 I. Näsberg
A. Olsen
Norway
4 A. Olsen
H. Sjåtil
Norway
3 H. Sjåtil
C. Lange
Substitution
Denmark
10 C. Lange
M. Westergaard
Denmark
28 M. Westergaard
E. Sørensen
Substitution
Denmark
11 E. Sørensen
H. Bjørdal
Norway
8 H. Bjørdal
L. Janus Ravn-Haren
Substitution
Denmark
77 L. Janus Ravn-Haren
M. Grundetjern
Substitution
Norway
17 M. Grundetjern

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion
Capacity
12565
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sivert Amland
Ole Andreas Skogsrud Haukåsen
Christer Solheim Jørgensen

Statistics

Possession
Fredrikstad
51%
Vålerenga
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 5
52 Dangerous attacks 51
51 Possession 49
7 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
25 Throwins 15
3 Goal Kicks 9
1 Assists 1
84 Ball Safe 80
9 Goal Attempts 8
0 Injuries 1
2 Successful Dribbles 3
12 Dribble Attempts 15
17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20

Attacking

1 Counter Attacks 0
102 Attacks 92
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

374 Successful Passes 367
81 Successful Passes Percentage 82
464 Passes 448
10 Key Passes 11
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
57 Long Passes 58
29 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

15 Tackles 15
4 Saves 2
12 Interceptions 7

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 19
9 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

13 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Sivert Amland

Starting XI ▼

77
Martin Børsheim
Martin Børsheim Goalkeeper
6
Samuel Leach Holm
Samuel Leach Holm Defender
12
Ulrik Fredriksen
Ulrik Fredriksen Defender
13
Sondre Sørløkk
Sondre Sørløkk Defender
10
Johannes Núñez
Johannes Núñez
Attacker46'
16
Daniel Eid
Daniel Eid Defender
28
Solomon Owusu
Solomon Owusu Defender
18
Jonathan Norbye
Jonathan Norbye
Defender52'
19
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem Midfielder
20
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger Midfielder
21
Rocco Shein
Rocco Shein Midfielder
17
Sigurd Kvile
Sigurd Kvile
Defender83'
24
Leonard Owusu
Leonard Owusu Midfielder
23
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Attacker71'
9
S. Laghzaoui
S. Laghzaoui Attacker
15
Eirik Julius Granaas
Eirik Julius Granaas
Midfielder83'
Referee : Sivert Amland

Starting XI ▼

1
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall Goalkeeper
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Kolbeinn Finnsson Defender
3
Hakon Sjatil
Hakon Sjatil Defender
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen Defender
37
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg Defender
8
Henrik Bjørdal
Henrik Bjørdal Midfielder
10
Carl Lange
Carl Lange Midfielder
26
Filip Thorvaldsen
Filip Thorvaldsen
Attacker86'
11
Elias Sørensen
Elias Sørensen Midfielder
24
Petter Strand
Petter Strand
Midfielder68'
28
Magnus Westergaard
Magnus Westergaard Midfielder
77
Lucas Haren
Lucas Haren Midfielder
29
Fidel Brice Ambina
Fidel Brice Ambina
Midfielder69'
17
M. Grundetjern
M. Grundetjern Attacker
90
Ole Sæter
Ole Sæter
Attacker86'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Ole Sæter
5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Ole Sæter → M. Grundetjern
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Filip Thorvaldsen → Carl Lange
9th Substitution
Event
Sigurd Kvile → Rocco Shein
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Eirik Julius Granaas → S. Laghzaoui
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Daniel Eid
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
79'
Event
Johannes Núñez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Henrik Langaas Skogvold → Leonard Owusu
5th Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Fidel Brice Ambina → Lucas Haren
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Petter Strand → Elias Sørensen
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Ivan Näsberg
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Magnus Westergaard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jonathan Norbye → Solomon Owusu
2nd Substitution
52'
Event
Johannes Núñez → Sondre Sørløkk
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
M. Grundetjern
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fredrikstad exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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