FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stade Municipal 1 Sun, 15 Mar - 1:30 PM
Premier League
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
3 Winner 0
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 1:30 PM
Olakunle Olusegun - 29' (P)
Luka Tičić - 45+2'
Daniil Lesovoy - 90+3'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FK Nizjni Novgorod 3–0 Krylya Sovetov. The result saw FK Nizjni Novgorod take the points. FK Nizjni Novgorod showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 45%–55%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FK Nizjni Novgorod showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Matveev
S. Matveev
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.65
I. Kaplenkov
I. Kaplenkov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.65
A. Bolotenkov
A. Bolotenkov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.65
FK Nizjni Novgorod A. Shpilevskiy
A. Shpilevskiy
VS
Krylya Sovetov M. Adiev
M. Adiev
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.67
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: 49 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 W
Akron Rank: 57 W
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 68 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 L
Krasnodar Rank: 77 L
Rostov Rank: 63 W
Zenit Rank: 79 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krylya Sovetov
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.89
54.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Krylya Sovetov
Power Score
51.89
54.46
League Position
13
14
Global Rank
678
623

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FK Nizjni Novgorod Krylya Sovetov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.67
22.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.45
39.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FK Nizjni Novgorod +1.96 Efficiency Index
vs
Krylya Sovetov -1.96 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Krylya Sovetov
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FK Nizjni Novgorod Krylya Sovetov
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Krylya Sovetov
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Krylya Sovetov
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Home
9 matches
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
3
Goals
12
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
12
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:00:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 (C) N. Medvedev
M. Shnaptsev
Russia
70 M. Shnaptsev
N. Kakkoev
Russia
22 N. Kakkoev
I. Kirsh
Russia
4 I. Kirsh
S. Karič
Substitution
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
A. Opoku Sarfo
Ghana
6 A. Opoku Sarfo
L. Vešner Tičić
Substitution
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
A. Balboa Camacho
Substitution
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho
E. Smelov
Russia
17 E. Smelov
O. Olusegun
Substitution
Nigeria
40 O. Olusegun
R. Cephas
Substitution
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas
S. Pesyakov
Russia
30 (C) S. Pesyakov
S. Bozhin
Russia
47 S. Bozhin
A. Oroz
Croatia
5 A. Oroz
G. Requena
Argentina
31 G. Requena
S. Babkin
Substitution
Russia
6 S. Babkin
T. Galdames Millán
Substitution
Chile
3 T. Galdames Millán
F. Peixoto Costanza
Brazil
22 F. Peixoto Costanza
K. Stolbov
Substitution
Russia
20 K. Stolbov
D. Fernández Fernández
Spain
72 D. Fernández Fernández
A. Shumanskiy
Substitution
Belarus
70 A. Shumanskiy
G. Charles
Substitution
Nigeria
99 G. Charles

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Stade Municipal 1
Capacity
17856
Attendance
6367
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stanislav Matveev
Igor Kaplenkov
Andrey Bolotenkov

Statistics

Possession
FK Nizjni Novgorod
47%
Krylya Sovetov
53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 4
37 Dangerous attacks 47
45 Possession 55
7 Corners 2
20 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Penalties 0
10 Successful Dribbles 5
17 Dribble Attempts 11
17 Throwins 16
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
6 Goal Kicks 4
18 Successful Headers 16
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0
10 Goal Attempts 6
92 Ball Safe 82
5 Substitutions 5
4 Injuries 2

Attacking

78 Attacks 107
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 40
72 Successful Passes Percentage 78
239 Successful Passes 320
330 Passes 409
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
68 Long Passes 72

Defensive

3 Saves 5
15 Tackles 12
7 Interceptions 12

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
19 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

7 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Igor Kaplenkov

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev (C) Goalkeeper
7.21
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch Defender
7.07
22
Nikita Kakkoev
Nikita Kakkoev Defender
6.81
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Defender
7
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin
Defender79'
6.44
70
Maksim Shnaptsev
Maksim Shnaptsev Defender
6.72
6
Alex Opoku Sarfo
Alex Opoku Sarfo Midfielder
7.51
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Midfielder
6.67
19
Nikita Ermakov
Nikita Ermakov
Midfielder67'
6.67
17
E. Smelov
E. Smelov Midfielder
7.23
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
7.76
2
Viktor Aleksandrov
Viktor Aleksandrov
Defender79'
6.64
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
7.79
14
Matvey Urvantsev
Matvey Urvantsev
Attacker86'
40
Olakunle Olusegun
Olakunle Olusegun Attacker
7.36
88
Daniil Lesovoy
Daniil Lesovoy
Attacker86'
7.34
Referee : Igor Kaplenkov

Starting XI ▼

30
S. Pesyakov
S. Pesyakov (C) Goalkeeper
7.06
5
D. Oroz
D. Oroz Defender
6.78
31
Gonzalo Requena
Gonzalo Requena Defender
6.33
47
Sergey Bozhin
Sergey Bozhin Defender
6.1
3
T. Galdames
T. Galdames Midfielder
6.2
2
Kirill Pechenin
Kirill Pechenin
Defender64'
6.32
6
S. Babkin
S. Babkin Midfielder
6.65
14
Mihajlo Banjac
Mihajlo Banjac
Midfielder64'
6.72
20
K. Stolbov
K. Stolbov Midfielder
6.13
77
I. Akhmetov
I. Akhmetov
Midfielder46'
6.47
22
Fernando Costanza
Fernando Costanza Midfielder
6.77
72
Dani Fernández
Dani Fernández Midfielder
6.38
70
Artem Shumansky
Artem Shumansky Attacker
6.66
19
I. Oleynikov
I. Oleynikov
Midfielder64'
6.73
99
Chinedu Geoffrey
Chinedu Geoffrey Attacker
6.68
91
V. Ignatenko
V. Ignatenko
Attacker71'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
D. Oroz
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Daniil Lesovoy
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+3'
Event
Matvey Urvantsev → R. Cephas
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Daniil Lesovoy → Olakunle Olusegun
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Viktor Aleksandrov → Luka Tičić
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Yuriy Koledin → Sven Karič
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Nikita Ermakov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
71'
Event
V. Ignatenko → Chinedu Geoffrey
6th Substitution
Event
Nikita Ermakov → Adrián Balboa
5th Substitution
67'
64'
Event
I. Oleynikov → Artem Shumansky
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Kirill Pechenin → T. Galdames
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Mihajlo Banjac → S. Babkin
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
I. Akhmetov → K. Stolbov
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Luka Tičić
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45+2'
40'
Event
4th Yellowcard
Event
Olakunle Olusegun
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
29'
Event
E. Smelov
Penalty awarded
27'
27'
Event
Gonzalo Requena 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FK Nizjni Novgorod exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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