Fiorentina vs Parma Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Artemio Franchi Sun, 8 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie A
Fiorentina FIO
0 – 0
Parma PRM
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Fiorentina 0–0 Parma. The match ended in a draw. Parma showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Parma showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Zufferli
L. Zufferli
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
D. Imperiale
D. Imperiale
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
E. Feliciani
E. Feliciani
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
M. Ceccon
M. Ceccon
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
VS
Parma C. Antón Cuesta
C. Antón Cuesta
0.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: W
AC Milan Rank: D
Lazio Rank: D
Cremonese Rank: W
Parma Rank: L
Udinese Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Bologna Rank: W
Juventus Rank: L
Atalanta Rank: L
Genoa Rank: D
Napoli Rank: D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 12 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fiorentina
54.5%
Draw
26.86%
Away Parma
18.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
29.76
40.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fiorentina
Parma
Power Score
29.76
40.48
League Position
17
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Parma — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fiorentina Parma

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fiorentina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Parma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fiorentina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Parma
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.61
22.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.27
26.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fiorentina +0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Parma -0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fiorentina
Parma
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fiorentina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Parma
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fiorentina Parma
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fiorentina Parma
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fiorentina
Parma
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fiorentina FIO Home
5 matches
Parma PRM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:07:11+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Capacity
43147
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luca Zufferli
Davide Imperiale
Ermanno Feliciani
Marco Ceccon

Statistics

Possession
FIO
55%
PRM
45%

Top Statistics

8 Shots 2
58 Dangerous attacks 36
56 Possession 44
7 Corners 1
14 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Successful Headers 18
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
124 Ball Safe 111
1 Injuries 0
10 Goal Kicks 13
10 Throwins 14
4 Substitutions 4
8 Successful Dribbles 5
6 Goal Attempts 4
16 Dribble Attempts 9

Attacking

103 Attacks 84

Possession

10 Key Passes 5
88 Successful Passes Percentage 81
18 Successful Long Passes 29
503 Passes 403
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
445 Successful Passes 328
33 Long Passes 59

Defensive

13 Tackles 15
5 Interceptions 4
0 Saves 1
47 Duels Won 50

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 12
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dodô
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Pietro Comuzzo → Marin Pongracic
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Marco Brescianini → Cher Ndour
7th Substitution
86'
82'
Event
Nahuel Estévez → Oliver Sørensen
6th Substitution
Event
Jacopo Fazzini → Jack Harrison
5th Substitution
81'
72'
Event
Gaetano Oristanio → Gabriel Strefezza
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Nesta Elphege → Mateo Pellegrino
3rd Substitution
Event
Giovanni Fabbian → Rolando Mandragora
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Rolando Mandragora
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
61'
54'
Event
Christian Ordóñez → Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dodô from Fiorentina has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the scoreline remaining Fiorentina 0, Parma 0.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Gaetano Oristanio from Parma earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Parma after Luca Ranieri allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Dodô from Fiorentina committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Christian Ordóñez from Parma attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Parma after Luca Ranieri allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Fiorentina is flagged for offside. Roberto Piccoli has been caught in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Gaetano Oristanio from Parma commits a handball.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Christian Ordóñez of Parma attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it sailed over the crossbar.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fiorentina after Emanuele Valeri allowed the ball to go out.
88
Update Update
Marco Brescianini from Fiorentina committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Edoardo Corvi from Parma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fiorentina after Enrico Delprato allowed the ball to go out.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Marco Brescianini comes on to replace Cher Ndour.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Pietro Comuzzo comes on to replace Marin Pongracic.
85
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
85
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Jacopo Fazzini from Fiorentina attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert. The cross was delivered by Albert Gudmundsson.
85
Update Update
Alessandro Circati from Parma committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Enrico Delprato from Parma committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Cher Ndour from Fiorentina earned a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Robin Gosens from Fiorentina fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jacopo Fazzini.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Nahuel Estévez comes on to replace Oliver Sørensen.
81
Update Update
The pause has ended, and they're set to resume play.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Jacopo Fazzini comes on to replace Jack Harrison.
80
Update Update
Match interruption - Fiorentina.
75
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Mariano Troilo from Parma was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino from Parma committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Dodô from Fiorentina committed a foul.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Elphege Nesta comes on to replace Mateo Pellegrino.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Gaetano Oristanio comes on to replace Gabriel Strefezza.
70
Update Update
Alessandro Circati from Parma committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Marin Pongracic from Fiorentina earned a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Mandela Keita from Parma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Oliver Sørensen from Parma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Fiorentina's Albert Gudmundsson committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino from Parma commits a handball foul.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Giovanni Fabbian replaces Rolando Mandragora.
63
Update Update
Mariano Troilo from Parma was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina committed a foul.
61
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza from Parma earned a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora from Fiorentina committed a foul.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rolando Mandragora of Fiorentina has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fiorentina after a deflection off Edoardo Corvi.
58
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Luca Ranieri from Fiorentina attempted a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box on the left side following a corner kick.
57
Update Update
Albert Gudmundsson from Fiorentina has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
57
Update Update
Mariano Troilo from Parma committed a foul.
56
Update Update
Mariano Troilo from Parma committed a foul.
56
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina earned a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Christian Ordóñez replaces Hans Nicolussi Caviglia.
54
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Rolando Mandragora of Fiorentina took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went over the bar. The assist came from Nicolò Fagioli following a corner kick.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fiorentina after a play that resulted in Mariano Troilo conceding.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fiorentina after Emanuele Valeri allowed the ball to go out.
51
Update Update
Albert Gudmundsson from Fiorentina was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
51
Update Update
Benjamín Cremaschi from Parma committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Oliver Sørensen from Parma committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora from Fiorentina was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Emanuele Valeri from Parma was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina committed a foul.
48
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Nicolò Fagioli from Fiorentina takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
48
Update Update
Luca Ranieri from Fiorentina committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino from Parma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino from Parma was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Fiorentina 0, Parma 0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Gabriel Strefezza from Parma attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the left. The assist came from Mateo Pellegrino.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Fiorentina 0, Parma 0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mandela Keita from Parma attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
39
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gabriel Strefezza from Parma takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Alessandro Circati.
38
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Roberto Piccoli of Fiorentina attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
38
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fiorentina after Benjamín Cremaschi allowed it to go out.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fiorentina after Benjamín Cremaschi allowed the ball to go out.
35
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
35
Update Update
Luca Ranieri from Fiorentina has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
34
Update Update
Mariano Troilo from Parma committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia from Parma has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
33
Update Update
Cher Ndour from Fiorentina committed a foul.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
29
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Dodô from Fiorentina.
26
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nicolò Fagioli from Fiorentina takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Albert Gudmundsson.
26
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Cher Ndour from Fiorentina takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
24
Update Update
Emanuele Valeri from Parma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Jack Harrison from Fiorentina committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Jack Harrison from Fiorentina earned a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
Emanuele Valeri from Parma committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Emanuele Valeri of Parma attempted a header from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Oliver Sørensen.
16
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino from Parma has earned a free kick in his own half.
16
Update Update
Marin Pongracic from Fiorentina committed a foul.
13
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Gabriel Strefezza from Parma takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal.
11
Update Update
Benjamín Cremaschi from Parma committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Robin Gosens from Fiorentina was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Luca Ranieri from Fiorentina took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, narrowly missing the target. The assist came from Roberto Piccoli, who headed the ball following a corner kick.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Fiorentina after a play that resulted in Benjamín Cremaschi conceding the ball.
6
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino from Parma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora from Fiorentina committed a foul.
1
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Robin Gosens from Fiorentina takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Rolando Mandragora.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Parma exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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