FC Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadion An der Alten Försterei Sun, 8 Mar - 4:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Union Berlin FCU
1 Winner 4
Werder Bremen SVW
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:30 PM
Derrick Köhn - 18' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Olivier Deman - 31'
Jens Stage - 35'
Marco Grüll - 66'
Patrice Covic - 90+4'
András Schäfer 19' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FC Union Berlin 0–4 Werder Bremen. The result saw Werder Bremen take the points. Werder Bremen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 25%–75%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Werder Bremen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Gerach
T. Gerach
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
A. Sather
A. Sather
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
P. Kessel
P. Kessel
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
P. Ittrich
P. Ittrich
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
FC Union Berlin S. Baumgart
S. Baumgart
VS
Werder Bremen D. Thioune
D. Thioune
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: W
Hamburger SV Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heidenheim Rank: W
St. Pauli Rank: L
FC Bayern München Rank: L
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Union Berlin
39.37%
Draw
29.46%
Away Werder Bremen
31.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
37.33
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
Power Score
37.33
33.33
League Position
11
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Union Berlin — Opponent-weighted form score
Werder Bremen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Union Berlin Werder Bremen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Union Berlin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Werder Bremen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Union Berlin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Werder Bremen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.20
23.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.40
42.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Union Berlin +1.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Werder Bremen -1.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Union Berlin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Werder Bremen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Union Berlin Werder Bremen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Union Berlin Werder Bremen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Union Berlin FCU Home
9 matches
Werder Bremen SVW Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
5
Goals
13
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
13
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:18:05+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Capacity
22012
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Timo Gerach
Alexander Sather
Patrick Kessel
Patrick Ittrich

Statistics

Possession
FCU
31%
SVW
69%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 6
31 Dangerous attacks 51
25 Possession 75
1 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Throwins 15
21 Successful Headers 25
43 Ball Safe 59
7 Goal Attempts 9
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
7 Dribble Attempts 8
9 Goal Kicks 6
1 Penalties 0
0 Assists 4
2 Successful Dribbles 5
0 Injuries 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

88 Attacks 129

Possession

77 Long Passes 54
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 61
31 Successful Long Passes 33
150 Successful Passes 644
63 Successful Passes Percentage 90
238 Passes 719
2 Key Passes 13

Defensive

10 Interceptions 6
8 Tackles 12
1 Saves 1

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 16
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

5 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Patrice Covic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+2'
Event
Isaac Schmidt → Yukinari Sugawara
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Patrice Covic → Romano Schmid
8th Substitution
Event
Oliver Burke → Stanley Nsoki
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Christopher Trimmel → Janik Haberer
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Justin Njinmah → Marco Grüll
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Julián Malatini
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Tim Skarke → Ilyas Ansah
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Leopold Querfeld
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
69'
66'
Event
Marco Grüll
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Woo-yeong Jeong → Aljoscha Kemlein
3rd Substitution
63'
46'
Event
Julián Malatini → Niklas Stark
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Leonardo Bittencourt → Keke Topp
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Keke Topp
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Jens Stage
Header / 2nd Goal
31'
Event
Olivier Deman
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
András Schäfer
Foul / 1st Redcard
19'
Event
Derrick Köhn
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
18'
16'
Event
Niklas Stark
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Offside call against SV Werder Bremen. Justin Njinmah has been caught offside.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Isaac Schmidt comes on to replace Yukinari Sugawara.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! SV Werder Bremen takes the lead with a score of 4-1 against 1. FC Union Berlin. Patrice Covic scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the center of the goal. The assist comes from Leonardo Bittencourt.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Patrice Covic replaces Romano Schmid.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: 1. FC Union Berlin 1, SV Werder Bremen 4.
89
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
89
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Leopold Querfeld from 1. FC Union Berlin.
86
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Romano Schmid from SV Werder Bremen took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Justin Njinmah.
85
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Union Berlin. Oliver Burke has been flagged for being offside.
84
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Woo-yeong Jeong from 1. FC Union Berlin takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The assist came from Danilho Doekhi.
84
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tim Skarke from 1. FC Union Berlin fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rani Khedira from 1. FC Union Berlin takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
82
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Union Berlin: Oliver Burke comes on to replace Stanley Nsoki.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Justin Njinmah replaces Marco Grüll.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Union Berlin: Oliver Burke comes on to replace Stanley Nsoki.
80
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Danilho Doekhi from 1. FC Union Berlin.
79
Update Update
Julián Malatini from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Rani Khedira from 1. FC Union Berlin was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Julián Malatini of SV Werder Bremen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
78
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Marco Grüll from SV Werder Bremen attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area.
75
Update Update
Olivier Deman from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Woo-yeong Jeong from 1. FC Union Berlin earned a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Puertas of SV Werder Bremen attempts a shot from outside the penalty area with his right foot, but it gets intercepted. The assist was provided by Olivier Deman.
74
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
73
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Union Berlin: Tim Skarke comes on to replace Ilyas Ansah.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leopold Querfeld of 1. FC Union Berlin has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
69
Update Update
Marco Grüll from SV Werder Bremen earned a free kick in an offensive position.
69
Update Update
Leopold Querfeld from 1. FC Union Berlin committed a foul.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! SV Werder Bremen takes the lead with a score of 3-1 against 1. FC Union Berlin. Marco Grüll scores with a right-footed shot from close range into the bottom left corner, thanks to an assist from Romano Schmid.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Union Berlin: Woo-yeong Jeong replaces Aljoscha Kemlein.
57
Update Update
Olivier Deman from SV Werder Bremen was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
57
Update Update
Rani Khedira from 1. FC Union Berlin committed a foul.
55
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Romano Schmid from SV Werder Bremen attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
50
Attempt Attempt
Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen strikes the crossbar with a left-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area.
50
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist was provided by Jens Stage.
48
Update Update
Stanley Nsoki from 1. FC Union Berlin has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Romano Schmid from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Marco Grüll from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Rani Khedira from 1. FC Union Berlin has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Stanley Nsoki from 1. FC Union Berlin has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the scoreline reading 1. FC Union Berlin 1, SV Werder Bremen 2.
45
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from the team. Jens Stage of SV Werder Bremen takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading 1. FC Union Berlin 1, SV Werder Bremen 2.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Derrick Köhn from 1. FC Union Berlin takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly misses the top left corner following a free kick.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Julián Malatini replaces Niklas Stark.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Leonardo Bittencourt is coming on to replace Keke Topp.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Cameron Puertas from SV Werder Bremen attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area.
42
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Leopold Querfeld of 1. FC Union Berlin heads the ball from the center of the box, but it sails high and to the left. The assist came from Derrick Köhn, who delivered a cross.
41
Update Update
Cameron Puertas of SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Janik Haberer from 1. FC Union Berlin has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after Yukinari Sugawara allowed the ball to go out.
38
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Derrick Köhn of 1. FC Union Berlin takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly misses the top left corner following a free kick.
37
Update Update
Keke Topp from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Leopold Querfeld of 1. FC Union Berlin has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Keke Topp of SV Werder Bremen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
36
Update Update
Stanley Nsoki of 1. FC Union Berlin was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Keke Topp from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Derrick Köhn allowed the ball to go out.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FC Union Berlin 1, SV Werder Bremen 2. Jens Stage of SV Werder Bremen heads the ball into the right corner from the center of the box. The assist came from Cameron Puertas, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's 1-1 between 1. FC Union Berlin and SV Werder Bremen. Olivier Deman scores for Werder Bremen with a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, finding the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Jens Stage following a corner kick.
30
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Derrick Köhn allowed the ball to go out.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Yukinari Sugawara from SV Werder Bremen attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist was provided by Jens Stage.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Yukinari Sugawara from SV Werder Bremen took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
22
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
22
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
20
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen.
19
Red Card Red Card Important
András Schäfer from 1. FC Union Berlin has been shown a red card.
19
Update Update
András Schäfer from 1. FC Union Berlin committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FC Union Berlin takes the lead against SV Werder Bremen with a score of 1-0. Derrick Köhn from 1. FC Union Berlin successfully scores the penalty, striking the ball with his left foot into the bottom right corner.
16
Update Update
Penalty awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin! Ilyas Ansah is fouled inside the box.
16
Update Update
Niklas Stark of SV Werder Bremen has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the penalty box.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niklas Stark from SV Werder Bremen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
15
Update Update
Leopold Querfeld from 1. FC Union Berlin committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Keke Topp from SV Werder Bremen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Rani Khedira from 1. FC Union Berlin takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
9
Update Update
András Schäfer from 1. FC Union Berlin earned a free kick in an offensive position.
9
Update Update
Keke Topp of SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
8
Update Update
András Schäfer from 1. FC Union Berlin earned a free kick in an offensive position.
8
Update Update
Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Leopold Querfeld from 1. FC Union Berlin attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
6
Update Update
Derrick Köhn from 1. FC Union Berlin has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Yukinari Sugawara from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
6
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Cameron Puertas from SV Werder Bremen fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Romano Schmid.
3
Update Update
Leopold Querfeld from 1. FC Union Berlin committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Keke Topp of SV Werder Bremen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
András Schäfer from 1. FC Union Berlin earned a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Romano Schmid from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Stanley Nsoki allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Werder Bremen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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