FC Midtjylland vs Nordsjælland Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
MCH Arena Sun, 15 Mar - 1:00 PM
Superliga
FC Midtjylland FCM
0 Winner 1
Nordsjælland FCN
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 1:00 PM
|
Goal
Levy Nene - 90+9'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FC Midtjylland 0–1 Nordsjælland. The result saw Nordsjælland take the points. Nordsjælland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 60%–40%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nordsjælland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Hansen
J. Hansen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Skytte
V. Skytte
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Petersen
A. Petersen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Svendsen
F. Svendsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
FC Midtjylland M. Tullberg
M. Tullberg
VS
Nordsjælland J. Olsen
J. Olsen
2.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 W
Odense BK Rank: 57 W
FC København Rank: 70 W
Viborg FF Rank: 63 D
Nordsjælland Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viborg FF Rank: 62 L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 50 D
FC København Rank: 70 W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 W
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 L
32
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
32 - 18 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Midtjylland
65.51%
Draw
19.13%
Away Nordsjælland
15.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.12
64.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Midtjylland
Nordsjælland
Power Score
79.12
64.23
League Position
6
6
Global Rank
61
325

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score
Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Midtjylland Nordsjælland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nordsjælland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.92
28.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.38
18.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Midtjylland -0.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Nordsjælland +0.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Nordsjælland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nordsjælland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Midtjylland Nordsjælland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Nordsjælland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Nordsjælland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Midtjylland FCM Home
18 matches
Nordsjælland FCN Away
Match Record
7
Wins
6
5
Draws
5
6
Losses
7
Goals
38
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
38
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:59:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
E. Olafsson
Iceland
16 E. Olafsson
O. Diao
Substitution
Senegal
4 O. Diao
H. Lee
South Korea
3 H. Lee
M. Bech Sørensen
Denmark
22 (C) M. Bech Sørensen
D. Osorio Osorio
Substitution
Chile
11 D. Osorio Osorio
V. Byskov Andreasen
Substitution
Denmark
20 V. Byskov Andreasen
P. Bravo Landazuri
Colombia
19 P. Bravo Landazuri
V. Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
55 V. Jensen
K. Cho
Substitution
South Korea
10 K. Cho
D. Simsir
Denmark
58 D. Simsir
J. dos Santos Júnior
Brazil
74 J. dos Santos Júnior
A. Hansen
Denmark
13 A. Hansen
R. Norheim
Norway
23 R. Norheim
C. Yirenkyi
36 C. Yirenkyi
T. Salquist
Denmark
3 (C) T. Salquist
P. Ankersen
Denmark
2 P. Ankersen
M. Brink Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
6 M. Brink Christensen
M. Såby Heyde
Substitution
Denmark
47 M. Såby Heyde
J. Lähteenmäki
Substitution
Finland
25 J. Lähteenmäki
I. Adel
Substitution
Egypt
14 I. Adel
P. Amoako Junior
Substitution
10 P. Amoako Junior
M. Lamine Sadio
Senegal
37 M. Lamine Sadio

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Stadium
MCH Arena
Capacity
12152
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jonas Hansen
Victor Skytte
Alex Petersen
Frederik Svendsen

Statistics

Possession
FCM
58%
FCN
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 4
47 Dangerous attacks 47
60 Possession 40
5 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

30 Throwins 12
11 Goal Kicks 7
13 Dribble Attempts 15
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
7 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
101 Ball Safe 82
5 Goal Attempts 7
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

95 Attacks 88
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

352 Successful Passes 211
38 Successful Long Passes 16
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
94 Long Passes 59
457 Passes 311
77 Successful Passes Percentage 68
7 Key Passes 4

Defensive

17 Tackles 16
14 Interceptions 10
2 Saves 4

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 1
19 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Jonas Hansen

Starting XI ▼

16
Elías Ólafsson
Elías Ólafsson Goalkeeper
6.71
3
Han-beom Lee
Han-beom Lee Defender
6.65
4
Ousmane Diao
Ousmane Diao Defender
6.71
6
Martin Erlić
Martin Erlić
Defender46'
6.68
22
Mads Bech Sørensen
Mads Bech Sørensen (C) Defender
6.8
11
Darío Osorio
Darío Osorio Midfielder
7.02
14
Edward Chilufya
Edward Chilufya
Attacker68'
6.42
19
Pedro Bravo
Pedro Bravo Midfielder
6.7
20
Valdemar Byskov
Valdemar Byskov Midfielder
6.63
21
Denil Castillo
Denil Castillo
Midfielder46'
6.26
55
Victor Bak
Victor Bak Midfielder
6.44
8
Philip Billing
Philip Billing
Midfielder80'
6.27
10
Gue-sung Cho
Gue-sung Cho Attacker
6.35
17
Mikael Uhre
Mikael Uhre
Attacker68'
6.48
58
Aral Şimşir
Aral Şimşir Attacker
7.06
74
Júnior Brumado
Júnior Brumado Attacker
7.02
Referee : Jonas Hansen

Starting XI ▼

13
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper
7.68
2
Peter Ankersen
Peter Ankersen Defender
6.96
3
Tobias Salquist
Tobias Salquist (C) Defender
7.2
23
Runar Norheim
Runar Norheim Defender
6.9
36
Caleb Yirenkyi
Caleb Yirenkyi Defender
7.62
6
Mark Brink
Mark Brink Midfielder
6.68
39
Daniel Ingi Johannesson
Daniel Ingi Johannesson
Attacker80'
6.89
25
Juho Lähteenmäki
Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder
6.93
32
Victor Gustafsen
Victor Gustafsen
Defender88'
47
Malte Heyde
Malte Heyde Midfielder
6.68
35
Villads Rutkjaer
Villads Rutkjaer
Defender89'
10
Prince Amoako Junior
Prince Amoako Junior Attacker
6.87
17
Levy Nene
Levy Nene
Attacker59'
7.3
14
Ibrahim Adel
Ibrahim Adel Attacker
6.25
40
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Attacker59'
6.83
37
Mamadou Sadio
Mamadou Sadio Attacker
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Philip Billing
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+14'
90+14'
Event
Caleb Yirenkyi
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
Levy Nene
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
89'
Event
Villads Rutkjaer → Malte Heyde
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Victor Gustafsen → Juho Lähteenmäki
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Levy Nene
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Philip Billing → Victor Bak
7th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Daniel Ingi Johannesson → Mark Brink
8th Substitution
Event
Martin Erlić
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Edward Chilufya → Darío Osorio
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Mikael Uhre → Gue-sung Cho
6th Substitution
68'
59'
Event
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen → Ibrahim Adel
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Levy Nene → Prince Amoako Junior
3rd Substitution
Event
Denil Castillo
Penalty disallowed
49'
Event
Denil Castillo
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Martin Erlić → Ousmane Diao
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Denil Castillo → Valdemar Byskov
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Ibrahim Adel
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Ousmane Diao
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nordsjælland exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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