FC Köln vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
Werder Bremen
SVW
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between FC Köln and Werder Bremen is now finished, ending in a 3-1 victory for the home side. FC Köln led 1-0 at halftime and added two further goals after the break to secure the result. Although Werder Bremen entered as the stronger team, pre-match expectations carried only minimal deviation from the eventual outcome, with the result aligning in favor of FC Köln. The final score proved consistent with the pre-match projection and showed an efficiency shift that stayed in line with expectations. No xG data was available, but FC Köln dominated possession at 58 percent to Werder Bremen’s 42 percent. The decisive moment came via a red card to the away side, which created a clear red-card distortion in the second half and prevented Werder Bremen from mounting a successful recovery. Overall the result followed a logical path once the numerical disadvantage took hold, confirming the home team’s control of the contest.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: FC Köln showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
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Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Köln
Werder Bremen
Team Power Ranking
i
15.02
17.17
FC Köln
Werder Bremen
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Köln
Werder Bremen
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Köln
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Köln
⚠ Proxy
FC Köln
Werder Bremen
FC Köln
Werder Bremen
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
FC Köln
FC Köln
Werder Bremen
FC Köln
Werder Bremen
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- KOE had peak pressure around 51'.
- SVW started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:34+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
FC Köln
vs
St. Pauli
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Fri, 17 Apr - 6:30 PM
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion
Werder Bremen
vs
Hamburger SV
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Wohninvest Weserstadion
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼
















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Match Commentary