FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
RheinEnergieStadion Sat, 7 Mar - 5:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Köln KOE
1 Winner 2
Borussia Dortmund BVB
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 5:30 PM
Jakub Kamiński - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Serhou Guirassy - 16'
Maximilian Beier - 60'
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey 45+2' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FC Köln 1–1 Borussia Dortmund. The match ended in a draw. Borussia Dortmund showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 39%–61%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Borussia Dortmund showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Siebert
D. Siebert
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
L. Erbst
L. Erbst
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
R. Foltyn
R. Foltyn
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
J. Seidel
J. Seidel
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
FC Köln L. Kwasniok
L. Kwasniok
VS
Borussia Dortmund N. Kovač
N. Kovač
0.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.24
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: D
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
St. Pauli Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: W
SC Freiburg Rank: D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Köln
25.07%
Draw
23.77%
Away Borussia Dortmund
51.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
32.37
73.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
Power Score
32.37
73.33
League Position
13
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Borussia Dortmund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Köln Borussia Dortmund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Köln

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Borussia Dortmund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Köln ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Borussia Dortmund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.31
25.66
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.66
42.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Köln +1.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Borussia Dortmund -1.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Köln ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Borussia Dortmund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Köln Borussia Dortmund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Köln Borussia Dortmund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Köln KOE Home
9 matches
Borussia Dortmund BVB Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
9
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:12:19+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium
RheinEnergieStadion
Capacity
50000
Attendance
50000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Siebert
Lars Erbst
Rafael Foltyn
Jan Seidel

Statistics

Possession
KOE
42%
BVB
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
12 Shots 11
50 Dangerous attacks 53
39 Possession 61
9 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
11 Throwins 15
20 Successful Headers 13
7 Successful Dribbles 7
15 Dribble Attempts 14
4 Goal Kicks 8
37 Ball Safe 46
0 Injuries 1
5 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

90 Attacks 114
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 89
10 Key Passes 9
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 68
52 Long Passes 44
292 Successful Passes 536
26 Successful Long Passes 30
365 Passes 604

Defensive

12 Tackles 12
10 Interceptions 5
3 Saves 4
50 Duels Won 41

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 4
31 Total Crosses 21

Discipline

5 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 13

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Jobe Bellingham → Felix Nmecha
10th Substitution
Event
Jakub Kamiński
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
Event
Cenny Neumann → Said El Mala
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Eric Martel
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Marius Bülter → Ragnar Ache
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Dominique Heintz → Tom Krauß
8th Substitution
86'
83'
Event
Karim Adeyemi → Maximilian Beier
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Niklas Süle → Ramy Bensebaini
5th Substitution
Event
Linton Maina → Youssoupha Niang
4th Substitution
75'
68'
Event
Fábio Silva
Penalty disallowed
61'
Event
Yan Couto → Julian Ryerson
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Fábio Silva → Serhou Guirassy
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Maximilian Beier
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Cenk Özkacar → Ísak Jóhannesson
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Ramy Bensebaini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Foul / 1st Redcard
45+2'
Event
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Card adjusted
45+1'
16'
Event
Serhou Guirassy
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Köln. Cenk Özkacar has been caught in an offside position.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: 1. FC Köln 1, Borussia Dortmund 2.
90
Update Update
Karim Adeyemi of Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Eric Martel of 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
90
Update Update
Kristoffer Lund from 1. FC Köln was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Update Update
Yan Couto commits a foul against Borussia Dortmund.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after a play that resulted in Gregor Kobel conceding.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to 1. FC Köln after Niklas Süle allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Daniel Svensson from Borussia Dortmund has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Cenny Neumann from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Jobe Bellingham comes on to replace Felix Nmecha.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Karim Adeyemi from Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Daniel Svensson.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FC Köln 1, Borussia Dortmund 2. Jakub Kaminski scores for 1. FC Köln with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, placing it into the left corner.
87
Update Update
Felix Nmecha from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Marius Bülter comes on to replace Ragnar Ache.
87
Update Update
Marius Bülter from 1. FC Köln earned a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Felix Nmecha from Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
86
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Dominique Heintz comes on to replace Tom Krauß.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Cenny Neumann comes on to replace Saïd El Mala.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eric Martel of 1. FC Köln has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Felix Nmecha allowed the ball to go out.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Karim Adeyemi replaces Maximilian Beier.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Niklas Süle comes on to replace Ramy Bensebaini.
82
Update Update
Julian Brandt of Borussia Dortmund commits a handball.
80
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ramy Bensebaini from Borussia Dortmund attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Daniel Svensson.
76
Update Update
Fábio Silva commits a foul against Borussia Dortmund.
76
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Felix Nmecha from Borussia Dortmund took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Daniel Svensson.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Linton Maina comes on to replace Youssoupha Niang.
72
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Fábio Silva from Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
70
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Köln. Saïd El Mala is caught in an offside position.
68
Update Update
VAR Review: No Penalty awarded to Borussia Dortmund.
66
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push! Fábio Silva from Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Marvin Schwäbe of 1. FC Köln makes a great save, stopping the ball in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Yan Couto.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Fábio Silva from Borussia Dortmund attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal and to the right.
63
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Jakub Kaminski allowed the ball to go out of play.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Rav van den Berg allowed the ball to go out.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Fábio Silva replaces Serhou Guirassy.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Yan Couto replaces Julian Ryerson.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Borussia Dortmund takes a 2-0 lead over 1. FC Köln. Maximilian Beier scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the right corner of the net. The assist comes from Julian Brandt, who delivered a precise through ball.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln attempts a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Tom Krauß.
56
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Jakub Kaminski of 1. FC Köln takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box. However, Gregor Kobel from Borussia Dortmund makes a save, diving to his right to deny the attempt. The assist came from Saïd El Mala.
56
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Youssoupha Niang of 1. FC Köln fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard area, but it's successfully blocked.
54
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Kristoffer Lund from 1. FC Köln takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Gregor Kobel of Borussia Dortmund makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Youssoupha Niang.
53
Update Update
Offside call against Borussia Dortmund. Julian Ryerson has been caught in an offside position.
52
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Köln. Rav van den Berg has been caught offside.
51
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Julian Brandt from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Cenk Özkacar from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Marvin Schwäbe from 1. FC Köln makes a great save, stopping it at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Daniel Svensson, who delivered a cross.
47
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Jakub Kaminski allowed the ball to go out.
47
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy committed a foul against Borussia Dortmund.
45
Update Update
Ramy Bensebaini commits a foul for Borussia Dortmund.
45
Update Update
Youssoupha Niang from 1. FC Köln was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
VAR Review: Jahmai Simpson-Pusey's card has been changed to a more serious offense for 1. FC Köln.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with a score of 1. FC Köln 0, Borussia Dortmund 1.
45
Update Update
Tom Krauß from 1. FC Köln was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Felix Nmecha from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Cenk Özkacar comes on to replace Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with 1. FC Köln trailing Borussia Dortmund 1-0.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ramy Bensebaini of Borussia Dortmund has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Red Card Red Card Important
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey from 1. FC Köln has been shown a red card.
44
Update Update
Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
44
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund.
44
Update Update
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Youssoupha Niang from 1. FC Köln has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Felix Nmecha of Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
40
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Marvin Schwäbe of 1. FC Köln makes a save, directing the ball to the left corner.
39
Update Update
Rav van den Berg from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Youssoupha Niang of 1. FC Köln heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's just inches away from finding the back of the net. The assist came from Saïd El Mala, who delivered a great cross.
39
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick in an offensive position.
38
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Ragnar Ache from 1. FC Köln heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The cross was delivered by Eric Martel.
36
Update Update
Daniel Svensson from Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Krauß of 1. FC Köln.
34
Attempt Attempt
A missed opportunity for 1. FC Köln as Ragnar Ache heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes wide to the left. The chance was set up by Jakub Kaminski, who delivered a cross after a quick counterattack.
34
Update Update
Youssoupha Niang from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
34
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Saïd El Mala of 1. FC Köln attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The chance was set up by Ragnar Ache during a quick counterattack.
34
Update Update
Ramy Bensebaini of Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Serhou Guirassy.
28
Update Update
Fouled by Youssoupha Niang of 1. FC Köln.
28
Update Update
Daniel Svensson from Borussia Dortmund has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
24
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund.
22
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
21
Update Update
Match interruption - 1. FC Köln.
19
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Youssoupha Niang from 1. FC Köln attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
19
Update Update
Julian Ryerson from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Saïd El Mala from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy from Borussia Dortmund was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Borussia Dortmund takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against 1. FC Köln. Serhou Guirassy scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box following a corner kick.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Maximilian Beier allowed the ball to go out.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Tom Krauß allowed the ball to go out.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Maximilian Beier allowed the ball to go out.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Serhou Guirassy.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Ramy Bensebaini allowed the ball to go out.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Waldemar Anton allowed the ball to go out.
9
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Marcel Sabitzer of Borussia Dortmund takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal and to the left.
9
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Daniel Svensson from Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
7
Update Update
Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund commits a handball.
6
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Köln. Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson has been caught offside.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Nico Schlotterbeck's defensive play.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after a play that resulted in a save by Gregor Kobel.
5
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Youssoupha Niang from 1. FC Köln heads the ball from the center of the box, but Gregor Kobel from Borussia Dortmund makes a fantastic save, diving to the top left corner. The assist came from Saïd El Mala, who delivered a precise cross.
4
Update Update
Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Kristoffer Lund from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FC Köln. Saïd El Mala has been caught in an offside position.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Julian Ryerson allowed the ball to go out.
1
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson of 1. FC Köln fires a right-footed shot from close range, but it's successfully blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson of 1. FC Köln fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Tom Krauß.
1
Update Update
Offside call against Borussia Dortmund. Julian Brandt is caught in an offside position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Borussia Dortmund exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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