FC Bayern München vs FC Union Berlin Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
FC Union Berlin
FCU
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between FC Bayern München and FC Union Berlin has finished, with the hosts securing a commanding 4-0 full-time victory. Pre-match expectations heavily favored Bayern, who held an 81.8% implied probability to win, compared to an 11.6% chance for a draw and just 6.6% for an away upset. This definitive result represented a significant deviation level in favor of FC Bayern München, ensuring the final outcome firmly aligned with the pre-match market. Bayern’s dominance was evident across the pitch. They controlled 74% of the overall possession, strictly limiting FC Union Berlin to a mere 26%. The underlying data heavily supported the blowout, with the hosts generating 3.85 expected goals (xG) against the visitors' 0.31 x
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: FC Bayern München showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
Team Power Ranking
i
99.82
75.46
FC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Bayern München
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
FC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:51+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
FC Bayern München
vs
SC Freiburg
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Away
FC Union Berlin
vs
St. Pauli
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 5 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Match Commentary