FC Bayern München vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Allianz Arena Fri, 6 Mar - 7:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Bayern München FCB
4 Winner 1
Borussia Mönchengladbach BMG
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 7:30 PM
Luis Díaz - 33'
Konrad Laimer - 45+1'
Jamal Musiala - 57' (P)
Nicolas Jackson - 79'
Goal
|
Goal
Wael Mohya - 89'
|
Red Card Rocco Reitz 55'

CONTEXT

The match between FC Bayern München and Borussia Mönchengladbach has finished with a decisive 4-1 victory for the home side. FC Bayern München established their dominance early, taking a comfortable 2-0 lead into the halftime break. The final outcome perfectly aligned with the pre-match market, which overwhelmingly favored the hosts with a 77% win probability, leaving Mönchengladbach with just a 10.2% chance and a 12.8% likelihood of a draw. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to verify if the final score directly aligned with chance creation, the run of play heavily favored the stronger team. Bayern dictated the tempo with a massive 70% possession share, restricting the visitors to only 30% of the ball. Team efficiency shifts remained in line with standard expectations, though FC Bayern München demonstrated a significant 23% performance deviation, performing well above standard baseline projections. Borussia Mönchengladbach’s difficult task became insurmountable due to disciplinary issues. The away side suffered a red card, creating a noticeable red card distortion that impacted second-half adjustments. This numerical disadvantage completely neutralized the visitors, ensuring Bayern smoothly managed the rest of the game to secure their expected win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Bayern München showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Schröder
R. Schröder
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
T. Gorniak
T. Gorniak
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
J. Neitzel
J. Neitzel
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
T. Welz
T. Welz
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.19
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
VS
Borussia Mönchengladbach E. Polanski
E. Polanski
2.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.09
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: W
FC Köln Rank: W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
Heidenheim Rank: W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Werder Bremen Rank: D
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 10 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Bayern München
77.01%
Draw
12.77%
Away Borussia Mönchengladbach
10.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Power Score
88
33.33
League Position
1
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Borussia Mönchengladbach — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Bayern München Borussia Mönchengladbach

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Bayern München

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.21
36.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.50
31.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Bayern München -0.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Bayern München
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Bayern München Borussia Mönchengladbach
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Bayern München Borussia Mönchengladbach
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
FC Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Bayern München FCB Home
11 matches
Borussia Mönchengladbach BMG Away
Match Record
6
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
6
Goals
24
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
24
+12
Goal Difference
-12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:28:28+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium
Allianz Arena
Capacity
75024
Attendance
75000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Robert Schröder
Thomas Gorniak
Jan Clemens Neitzel
Tobias Welz

Statistics

Possession
FCB
66%
BMG
34%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 3
18 Shots 10
77 Dangerous attacks 19
70 Possession 30
7 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 13
64 Ball Safe 71
14 Goal Attempts 4
7 Successful Headers 4
37 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
19 Dribble Attempts 10
7 Successful Dribbles 6
3 Goal Kicks 8
3 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Penalties 0
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

141 Attacks 62
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

769 Passes 327
707 Successful Passes 256
3 Successful Long Passes 10
16 Key Passes 7
14 Long Passes 36
92 Successful Passes Percentage 78
21 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28

Defensive

12 Tackles 16
12 Interceptions 11
4 Saves 5
37 Duels Won 33

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 3
11 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

7 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Wael Mohya
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
84'
Event
Wael Mohya → Hugo Bolin
9th Substitution
Event
David Santos Daiber → Joshua Kimmich
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Nicolas Jackson
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
79'
67'
Event
Lukas Ullrich → Jens Castrop
7th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Jackson
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard
66'
Event
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Josip Stanisic → Dayot Upamecano
6th Substitution
61'
61'
Event
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Shuto Machino → Franck Honorat
5th Substitution
Event
Raphaël Guerreiro → Konrad Laimer
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Jamal Musiala
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
57'
55'
Event
Rocco Reitz
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Event
Jonas Urbig → Manuel Neuer
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Konrad Laimer
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+1'
Event
Luis Díaz
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Joe Scally allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München, following a concession by Shuto Machino.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jamal Musiala from FC Bayern München takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Nicolas Jackson.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: FC Bayern München 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Kevin Diks allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. David Santos from FC Bayern München takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Lukas Ullrich has been flagged for being in an offside position.
89
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway! Fabio Chiarodia from Borussia Mönchengladbach takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Jonas Urbig from FC Bayern München makes a great save, diving to his left. The assist came from Kevin Stöger.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1. Wael Mohya from Borussia Mönchengladbach takes a shot with his right foot from the right side of the six-yard box, sending the ball into the top right corner of the net.
89
Update Update
Kevin Stöger from Borussia Mönchengladbach earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
89
Update Update
Kevin Stöger from Borussia Mönchengladbach earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
87
Update Update
David Santos from FC Bayern München committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Philipp Sander from Borussia Mönchengladbach has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Mönchengladbach: Wael Mohya replaces Hugo Bolin due to an injury.
82
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Tom Bischof from FC Bayern München.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lukas Ullrich from Borussia Mönchengladbach fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Shuto Machino from Borussia Mönchengladbach takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Jonas Urbig of FC Bayern München makes a save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal.
82
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Hugo Bolin from Borussia Mönchengladbach.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: David Santos replaces Joshua Kimmich.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München leads Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0. Nicolas Jackson scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box.
77
Update Update
Maycon Douglas Cardozo from FC Bayern München earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
77
Update Update
Joe Scally from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Kevin Diks allowed the ball to go out.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Kevin Diks allowed the ball to go out of play.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Shuto Machino from Borussia Mönchengladbach takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Hugo Bolin.
74
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Leon Goretzka from FC Bayern München attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area...
73
Update Update
Maycon Douglas Cardozo from FC Bayern München has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
73
Update Update
Philipp Sander from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Jamal Musiala from FC Bayern München earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
73
Update Update
Nico Elvedi from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Jamal Musiala from FC Bayern München earned a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Update Update
Kevin Stöger from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
71
Update Update
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Shuto Machino of Borussia Mönchengladbach attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area. However, FC Bayern München's goalkeeper, Jonas Urbig, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Joe Scally, who delivered a precise cross.
70
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Jamal Musiala of FC Bayern München attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Lennart Karl following a corner kick.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Nico Elvedi allowed the ball to go out.
69
Update Update
Leon Goretzka from FC Bayern München has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
69
Update Update
Shuto Machino committed a foul against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
68
Update Update
Offside call against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Hugo Bolin has been flagged for being in an offside position.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Mönchengladbach: Lukas Ullrich comes on to replace Jens Castrop, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
67
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
67
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Jens Castrop from Borussia Mönchengladbach.
66
Update Update
Nicolas Jackson committed a foul against FC Bayern München.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolas Jackson of FC Bayern München has been shown a yellow card.
66
Update Update
Shuto Machino from Borussia Mönchengladbach was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Shuto Machino from Borussia Mönchengladbach attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Hugo Bolin.
62
Update Update
Offside call against FC Bayern München. Nicolas Jackson has been caught in an offside position.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Josip Stanisic replaces Dayot Upamecano.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Raphaël Guerreiro replaces Luis Díaz.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Mönchengladbach: Shuto Machino comes on to replace Haris Tabakovic.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Mönchengladbach: Fabio Chiarodia comes on to replace Franck Honorat.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Maycon Douglas Cardozo comes on to replace Konrad Laimer.
59
Update Update
Nico Elvedi from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
59
Update Update
Nicolas Jackson from FC Bayern München was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München leads 3-0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Jamal Musiala from FC Bayern München successfully scores the penalty with a right-footed shot.
55
Red Card Red Card Important
Rocco Reitz from Borussia Mönchengladbach has been shown a red card.
55
Update Update
Rocco Reitz of Borussia Mönchengladbach has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the penalty box.
55
Update Update
Rocco Reitz of Borussia Mönchengladbach has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the penalty box.
52
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Konrad Laimer of FC Bayern München took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
50
Update Update
Joshua Kimmich of FC Bayern München has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Hugo Bolin from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Offside call against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Franck Honorat has been flagged for being offside.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München leads 2-0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Konrad Laimer scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, placing it in the top left corner. The assist came from Luis Díaz after a quick counterattack.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with FC Bayern München leading Borussia Mönchengladbach by a score of 2-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Jonas Urbig comes on to replace Manuel Neuer due to an injury.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Kevin Stöger from Borussia Mönchengladbach earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Luis Díaz from FC Bayern München committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at FC Bayern München 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.
44
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Nicolas Jackson of FC Bayern München takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it narrowly misses the top right corner. The assist came from Konrad Laimer.
42
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
42
Update Update
Match interruption - FC Bayern München.
39
Update Update
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Dayot Upamecano of FC Bayern München headed the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but his effort was blocked. The assist came from Tom Bischof, who delivered a cross.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Nico Elvedi allowed the ball to go out.
36
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Nicolas Jackson of FC Bayern München takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but the attempt is successfully stopped.
36
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Konrad Laimer from FC Bayern München took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Lennart Karl.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Luis Díaz scores for FC Bayern München with a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
31
Update Update
Joshua Kimmich from FC Bayern München has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Kevin Stöger from Borussia Mönchengladbach.
28
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Franck Honorat of Borussia Mönchengladbach attempted a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Haris Tabakovic.
27
Update Update
Konrad Laimer from FC Bayern München committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Kevin Stöger from Borussia Mönchengladbach was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Nicolas Jackson committed a foul against FC Bayern München.
26
Update Update
Hugo Bolin from Borussia Mönchengladbach has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Moritz Nicolas allowed the ball to go out.
25
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Lennart Karl from FC Bayern München takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Moritz Nicolas from Borussia Mönchengladbach makes a great save in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Leon Goretzka.
24
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Haris Tabakovic of Borussia Mönchengladbach attempted a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, but it went wide to the left.
22
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tom Bischof of FC Bayern München takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jamal Musiala.
20
Update Update
Jamal Musiala from FC Bayern München was awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
20
Update Update
Dayot Upamecano from FC Bayern München committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Rocco Reitz from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Rocco Reitz from Borussia Mönchengladbach has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push from FC Bayern München. Leon Goretzka takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
13
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Lennart Karl from FC Bayern München takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Moritz Nicolas, the goalkeeper for Borussia Mönchengladbach, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Konrad Laimer.
10
Update Update
Offside call against FC Bayern München. Lennart Karl is caught in an offside position.
7
Update Update
Joe Scally from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Luis Díaz of FC Bayern München earned a free kick on the left flank.
3
Update Update
Jens Castrop from Borussia Mönchengladbach committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Luis Díaz of FC Bayern München has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Mönchengladbach after Min-Jae Kim allowed the ball to go out.
2
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Rocco Reitz from Borussia Mönchengladbach takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Manuel Neuer, the goalkeeper for FC Bayern München, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Haris Tabakovic.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Bayern München exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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