FC Barcelona vs Sevilla Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Camp Nou Sun, 15 Mar - 3:15 PM
La Liga
FC Barcelona BAR
5 Winner 2
Sevilla SEV
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 3:15 PM
Raphinha - 9' (P), 21' (P), 51'
Dani Olmo - 38'
João Cancelo - 60'
Goal
|
Goal
Oso - 45+3'
Djibril Sow - 90+2'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FC Barcelona 5–1 Sevilla. The result saw FC Barcelona take the points. FC Barcelona showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Barcelona showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Fernández González
E. Fernández González
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
M. Martínez Munuera
M. Martínez Munuera
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
L. Morona Del Campo
L. Morona Del Campo
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
J. Martínez Munuera
J. Martínez Munuera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
FC Barcelona H. Flick
H. Flick
VS
Sevilla F. Martínez Rodríguez
F. Martínez Rodríguez
2.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 L
Espanyol Rank: 76 W
Villarreal Rank: 83 W
Osasuna Rank: 79 W
Real Betis Rank: 84 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Betis Rank: 84 D
Getafe Rank: 74 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 77 D
Girona Rank: 75 D
Mallorca Rank: 75 L
Athletic Club Rank: 80 W
34
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
34 - 10 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Barcelona
72.39%
Draw
16.58%
Away Sevilla
11.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
95.33
73.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Barcelona
Sevilla
Power Score
95.33
73.56
League Position
1
15
Global Rank
4
120

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Barcelona — Opponent-weighted form score
Sevilla — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Barcelona Sevilla

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Barcelona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sevilla

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Barcelona ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sevilla
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.93
26.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.15
23.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Barcelona -0.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Sevilla +0.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Barcelona
Sevilla
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Barcelona ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sevilla
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Barcelona Sevilla
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Barcelona Sevilla
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Barcelona
Sevilla
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Barcelona BAR Home
11 matches
Sevilla SEV Away
Match Record
8
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
8
Goals
24
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
24
+15
Goal Difference
-15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:19:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Pons
Spain
13 J. Pons
X. Espart Font
Spain
42 X. Espart Font
P. Cubarsí Paredes
Spain
5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
G. Martín Langreo
Spain
18 G. Martín Langreo
J. Cavaco Cancelo
Substitution
Portugal
2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
P. López
Substitution
Spain
8 P. López
M. Bernal Casas
Substitution
Spain
22 M. Bernal Casas
D. Olmo Carvajal
Spain
20 D. Olmo Carvajal
R. Bardghji
Substitution
Sweden
19 R. Bardghji
R. Lewandowski
Poland
9 R. Lewandowski
Raphinha
Substitution
Brazil
11 (C) Raphinha
O. Vlachodimos
Greece
1 O. Vlachodimos
G. Suazo Urbina
Substitution
Chile
12 G. Suazo Urbina
N. Gudelj
Serbia
6 (C) N. Gudelj
N. Kouassi
Substitution
France
5 N. Kouassi
J. Sánchez Velasco
Spain
16 J. Sánchez Velasco
D. Sow
Switzerland
20 D. Sow
L. Agoume
Substitution
France
18 L. Agoume
J. Martínez Gauna
Spain
36 J. Martínez Gauna
A. Sánchez Sánchez
Chile
10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
José Ángel Carmona
Substitution
Spain
2 José Ángel Carmona
A. Adams
Substitution
Nigeria
9 A. Adams

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
Camp Nou
Capacity
99354
Attendance
56483
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Eliana Fernández González
Miguel Martínez Munuera
Luis Enrique Morona Del Campo
Juan Martínez Munuera

Statistics

Possession
BAR
60%
SEV
40%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 2
7 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 7
32 Dangerous attacks 24
61 Possession 39
3 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 5
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
12 Successful Headers 10
0 Injuries 1
94 Ball Safe 69
14 Successful Dribbles 8
15 Throwins 17
2 Penalties 0
20 Dribble Attempts 12
2 Goal Kicks 9
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
13 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

112 Attacks 67
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

40 Long Passes 54
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
613 Passes 381
22 Successful Long Passes 21
548 Successful Passes 302
89 Successful Passes Percentage 79
6 Key Passes 6

Defensive

2 Saves 3
10 Tackles 14
49 Duels Won 38
17 Interceptions 9

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
9 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
5 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Juan Martínez Munuera

Starting XI ▼

13
Joan García
Joan García Goalkeeper
6.58
2
João Cancelo
João Cancelo Defender
7.91
4
Ronald Araujo
Ronald Araujo
Defender66'
6.26
5
Pau Cubarsí
Pau Cubarsí Defender
6.82
18
Gerard Martín
Gerard Martín Defender
6.84
42
Xavi Espart
Xavi Espart Defender
6.73
8
Pedri
Pedri Midfielder
6.7
16
Fermín López
Fermín López
Midfielder46'
7.19
20
Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo Midfielder
8.14
22
Marc Bernal
Marc Bernal Midfielder
6.89
17
Marc Casadó
Marc Casadó
Midfielder67'
6.56
9
Robert Lewandowski
Robert Lewandowski Attacker
6.23
11
Raphinha
Raphinha (C) Attacker
3
9.33
6
Gavi
Gavi
Midfielder82'
6.49
19
Roony Bardghji
Roony Bardghji Attacker
6.72
10
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal
Attacker67'
6.52
Referee : Juan Martínez Munuera

Starting XI ▼

1
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Odysseas Vlachodimos Goalkeeper
5.52
5
Tanguy Nianzou
Tanguy Nianzou Defender
5.6
32
Andrés Castrín
Andrés Castrín
Defender70'
6.87
6
Nemanja Gudelj
Nemanja Gudelj (C) Defender
5.77
12
Gabriel Suazo
Gabriel Suazo Defender
5.91
11
Rubén Vargas
Rubén Vargas
Midfielder46'
6.62
16
Juanlu Sánchez
Juanlu Sánchez Defender
6.32
2
José Ángel Carmona
José Ángel Carmona Midfielder
5.75
21
Chidera Ejuke
Chidera Ejuke
Attacker46'
7
10
Alexis Sánchez
Alexis Sánchez Midfielder
6.08
18
Lucien Agoumé
Lucien Agoumé Midfielder
6.28
28
Manu Bueno
Manu Bueno
Midfielder78'
6.42
20
Djibril Sow
Djibril Sow Midfielder
6.71
36
Oso
Oso Midfielder
7.72
9
Akor Adams
Akor Adams Attacker
6.53
17
Neal Maupay
Neal Maupay
Attacker46'
6.41

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Djibril Sow
Header / 5th Goal
Event
Gavi → Raphinha
10th Substitution
82'
78'
Event
Manu Bueno → Lucien Agoumé
9th Substitution
70'
Event
Andrés Castrín → Tanguy Nianzou
8th Substitution
Event
Marc Casadó → Marc Bernal
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Lamine Yamal → Roony Bardghji
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Ronald Araujo → João Cancelo
5th Substitution
66'
Event
João Cancelo
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
60'
Event
Raphinha
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
51'
Event
Fermín López → Pedri
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Neal Maupay → Akor Adams
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Chidera Ejuke → José Ángel Carmona
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Rubén Vargas → Gabriel Suazo
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Oso
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Dani Olmo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
38'
37'
Event
Gabriel Suazo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Raphinha
Left foot shot / 2nd Penalty
21'
Event
João Cancelo
Penalty awarded
18'
Event
Raphinha
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
9'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Barcelona 5, Sevilla 2. Djibril Sow scores for Sevilla with a header from the middle of the box, sending the ball into the upper part of the net. The assist came from Oso, who delivered a precise cross.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Barcelona 5, Sevilla 2.
88
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Barcelona after a defensive play by Oso.
87
Update Update
Gavi from Barcelona committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Manu Bueno from Sevilla committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Marc Casadó from Barcelona earned a free kick in an offensive position.
84
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Robert Lewandowski of Barcelona attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The assist came from Fermín López, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Gavi replaces Raphinha.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Manu Bueno comes on to replace Lucien Agoumé.
78
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Robert Lewandowski of Barcelona takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Odysseas Vlachodimos of Sevilla makes a save, diving to his right to stop the attempt.
76
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Dani Olmo from Barcelona took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
74
Update Update
Oso from Sevilla committed a handball.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sevilla after a play where Joan García was the last to touch the ball.
73
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Andrés Castrín from Sevilla attempted a header from close range but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Djibril Sow, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
73
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Rubén Vargas from Sevilla takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Andrés Castrín replaces Tanguy Nianzou.
69
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Barcelona after Djibril Sow allowed the ball to go out.
69
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Ronald Araujo of Barcelona heads the ball from close range, but it sails over the bar. The assist came from Raphinha, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
68
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Chidera Ejuke from Sevilla takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side, but Joan García from Barcelona makes a save in the right corner. The assist comes from Alexis Sánchez.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Marc Casadó replaces Marc Bernal.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Lamine Yamal comes on to replace Roony Bardghji.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Ronald Araujo is coming on to replace João Cancelo.
65
Update Update
Xavi Espart from Barcelona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
65
Update Update
Neal Maupay committed a foul against Sevilla.
64
Update Update
João Cancelo from Barcelona earned a free kick in an offensive position.
64
Update Update
Chidera Ejuke from Sevilla committed a foul.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Barcelona leads 5-1 against Sevilla. João Cancelo scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner.
57
Update Update
Offside call against Sevilla. Rubén Vargas has been caught in an offside position.
53
Update Update
Xavi Espart from Barcelona was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Rubén Vargas from Sevilla committed a foul.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Barcelona leads Sevilla 4-1. Raphinha scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist came from Fermín López.
48
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Barcelona after Nemanja Gudelj allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Barcelona 3, Sevilla 1. Oso from Sevilla fires a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Juanlu Sánchez, who delivered a perfect cross.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Rubén Vargas comes on to replace Gabriel Suazo.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alexis Sánchez from Sevilla takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Robert Lewandowski from Barcelona attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but couldn't convert.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Barcelona leading Sevilla 3-1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Neal Maupay comes on to replace Akor Adams.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the scoreline reading Barcelona 3, Sevilla 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Chidera Ejuke comes on to replace José Ángel Carmona.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Fermín López comes on to replace Pedri.
41
Update Update
Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Dani Olmo from Barcelona committed a foul.
41
Attempt Attempt
Akor Adams from Sevilla takes a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from José Ángel Carmona.
40
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Dani Olmo from Barcelona earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Barcelona leads 3-0 against Sevilla. Dani Olmo scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the bottom right corner.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Suazo from Sevilla has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
37
Update Update
Gabriel Suazo from Sevilla committed a foul.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Suazo from Sevilla has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
35
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Barcelona. Gerard Martín takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Odysseas Vlachodimos makes a great save, diving to his left. The assist came from Pedri.
35
Update Update
Offside call against Sevilla. Oso has been caught in an offside position.
31
Update Update
Offside call against Sevilla. Juanlu Sánchez has been caught in an offside position.
31
Update Update
Offside call against Sevilla. Juanlu Sánchez has been caught in an offside position.
30
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sevilla after João Cancelo allowed the ball to go out.
28
Update Update
Offside call against Barcelona. Robert Lewandowski has been caught in an offside position.
25
Update Update
Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla committed a foul.
25
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Robert Lewandowski of Barcelona took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal.
25
Update Update
Roony Bardghji from Barcelona has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
24
Update Update
Pau Cubarsí of Barcelona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla committed a foul.
23
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sevilla after Pau Cubarsí allowed the ball to go out.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sevilla after Gerard Martín allowed the ball to go out.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Barcelona leads 2-0 against Sevilla. Raphinha from Barcelona successfully scores the penalty, placing a left-footed shot into the bottom left corner.
18
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla has given away a penalty due to a handball in the box.
18
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Barcelona.
17
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Dani Olmo from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
17
Update Update
Oso from Sevilla committed a foul.
17
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Dani Olmo of Barcelona takes a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved in the left corner by Odysseas Vlachodimos of Sevilla, with the assist coming from Pedri.
17
Update Update
Roony Bardghji from Barcelona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Alexis Sánchez committed a foul against a Sevilla player.
16
Update Update
Marc Bernal from Barcelona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
Offside call against Sevilla. Oso is caught in an offside position.
13
Update Update
Offside call against Barcelona. Robert Lewandowski has been caught in an offside position.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Barcelona takes the lead 1-0 against Sevilla. Raphinha steps up and successfully converts the penalty with a left-footed strike.
8
Update Update
Djibril Sow has given away a penalty for Sevilla following a foul inside the box.
8
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Barcelona! João Cancelo is fouled inside the box.
4
Update Update
Marc Bernal from Barcelona committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Marc Bernal from Barcelona committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Alexis Sánchez of Sevilla earned a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Akor Adams from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
2
Update Update
Gerard Martín from Barcelona committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Gerard Martín from Barcelona committed a foul.
1
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla earned a free kick in an offensive position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Barcelona exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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