Empoli vs Virtus Entella Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Carlo Castellani Sun, 19 Apr - 5:30 PM
Serie B
Empoli EMP
1 – 1
Virtus Entella ENT
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Luca Magnino - 50'
Goal
|
Goal
Bernat Guiu - 13'

CONTEXT

Empoli and Virtus Entella played out a 1-1 draw in Serie C, with the home side holding 62% possession but suffering a red card that altered the game's flow. Virtus Entella, deemed the stronger team, took a 1-0 halftime lead before Empoli equalized in the second half. Despite Empoli's territorial advantage, the sending-off disrupted their control, leading to a balanced finish. Pre-match expectations favored Empoli heavily, yet the result marked a significant 68.4% structural deviation towards Virtus Entella. No xG data was available, leaving efficiency assessments in line with general trends. The red card distortion in the second half was a key adjustment factor, preventing a home victory and underscoring the away side's resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 68.4% structural deviation favored Virtus Entella.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market did not align with the draw result.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
  • Event impact: Home red card impacted second-half momentum.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion affected second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Marinelli
L. Marinelli
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Gilberto Laghezza
Gilberto Laghezza
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
D. Garzelli
D. Garzelli
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
P. Tremolada
P. Tremolada
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
VS
Virtus Entella A. Chiappella
A. Chiappella
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: L
Sampdoria Rank: L
Pescara Rank: W
Spezia Rank: D
Mantova Rank: D
Catanzaro Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: D
Mantova Rank: L
Reggiana Rank: W
Pescara Rank: L
Avellino Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Empoli
43.78%
Draw
31.61%
Away Virtus Entella
24.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Empoli
+39.34%
Draw
-60.73%
Virtus Entella
+21.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.08
21.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Empoli
Virtus Entella
Power Score
17.08
21.42
League Position
15
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Empoli Virtus Entella

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Empoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.55
28.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.82
28.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Empoli -0.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Virtus Entella +0.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Empoli
Virtus Entella
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Empoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Empoli Virtus Entella
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Empoli Virtus Entella
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Empoli
Virtus Entella
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Empoli
vs
Virtus Entella
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Empoli Virtus Entella
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Empoli 0.28
Virtus Entella 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Empoli Virtus Entella
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Empoli 0.03
Virtus Entella 0.02
Empoli
Virtus Entella
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ENT had peak pressure around 19'.
  • ENT started the game with stronger pressure.
EMP Pressure ENT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ENT reached the top pressure at 19' (98.57).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Empoli EMP Home
7 matches
Virtus Entella ENT Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
4
Goals
13
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
13
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:06:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
A. Fulignati
Italy
21 A. Fulignati
T. Ebuehi
Nigeria
24 T. Ebuehi
G. Guarino
Italy
34 G. Guarino
M. Lovato
Italy
20 M. Lovato
B. Moruzzi
Substitution
Italy
27 B. Moruzzi
G. Yepes Laut
Substitution
Spain
14 G. Yepes Laut
N. Haas
Switzerland
32 N. Haas
L. Magnino
Italy
8 L. Magnino
S. Elia
Substitution
Italy
7 S. Elia
S. Shpendi
Substitution
Albania
11 S. Shpendi
D. Fila
Substitution
Czech Republic
17 D. Fila
F. Del Frate
Italy
22 F. Del Frate
S. Di Mario
Italy
26 S. Di Mario
I. Marconi
Substitution
Italy
15 I. Marconi
A. Tiritiello
Italy
6 A. Tiritiello
L. Parodi
Italy
23 L. Parodi
F. Mezzoni
Substitution
Italy
94 F. Mezzoni
N. Karic
Substitution
Sweden
8 N. Karic
L. Benedetti
Italy
32 L. Benedetti
A. Franzoni
Italy
24 A. Franzoni
B. Guiu Vilanova
Substitution
Spain
11 B. Guiu Vilanova
L. Cuppone
Substitution
Italy
10 L. Cuppone

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Capacity
16284
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Livio Marinelli
Gilberto Laghezza
Dario Garzelli
Paride Tremolada

Statistics

Possession
EMP
58%
ENT
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 5
54 Dangerous attacks 39
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Attempts 6
31 Throwins 22
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
7 Goal Kicks 9
11 Dribble Attempts 16
1 Assists 1
89 Ball Safe 97
7 Successful Dribbles 10
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

107 Attacks 88
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 67
334 Successful Passes 176
38 Successful Long Passes 19
77 Long Passes 54
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
427 Passes 262
10 Key Passes 7

Defensive

10 Tackles 8
4 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 1
46 Duels Won 53

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 19
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
6.77
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato Defender
6.8
24
Tyronne Ebuehi
Tyronne Ebuehi Defender
6.56
27
Brando Moruzzi
Brando Moruzzi Defender
6.79
26
Antonio Candela
Antonio Candela
Defender54'
6.6
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Defender
6.92
7
Salvatore Elia
Salvatore Elia Midfielder
7.01
15
Joseph Ceesay
Joseph Ceesay
Defender74'
6.53
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Midfielder
6.66
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Midfielder
6.74
18
Andrea Ghion
Andrea Ghion
Midfielder74'
6.9
32
Nicolas Haas
Nicolas Haas Midfielder
6.55
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Attacker
6.9
99
Flavio Bianchi
Flavio Bianchi
Attacker84'
6.47
17
Daniel Fila
Daniel Fila Attacker
6.67
19
Marco Nasti
Marco Nasti
Attacker46'
6.73
Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

22
Federico Del Frate
Federico Del Frate Goalkeeper
6.75
6
Andrea Tiritiello
Andrea Tiritiello Defender
7.13
15
Ivan Marconi
Ivan Marconi Defender
6.72
46
Riccardo Turicchia
Riccardo Turicchia
Defender90+1'
6.6
23
Luca Parodi
Luca Parodi Defender
6.66
26
Stefano Di Mario
Stefano Di Mario Defender
6.88
94
Francesco Mezzoni
Francesco Mezzoni Defender
6.72
27
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Midfielder74'
6.58
8
Nermin Karić
Nermin Karić Midfielder
6.88
3
Mattia Alborghetti
Mattia Alborghetti
Defender74'
6.71
24
Andrea Franzoni
Andrea Franzoni Midfielder
6.92
32
Leonardo Benedetti
Leonardo Benedetti Midfielder
6.57
10
Luigi Cuppone
Luigi Cuppone Attacker
6.84
19
Alessandro Debenedetti
Alessandro Debenedetti
Attacker80'
6.7
11
Bernat Guiu
Bernat Guiu Attacker
6.99
17
Mattia Tirelli
Mattia Tirelli
Attacker80'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Riccardo Turicchia → Ivan Marconi
10th Substitution
90'
Event
5th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Ivan Marconi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Flavio Bianchi → Stiven Shpendi
9th Substitution
84'
80'
Event
Mattia Tirelli → Bernat Guiu
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Alessandro Debenedetti → Luigi Cuppone
7th Substitution
Event
Andrea Ghion → Gerard Yepes
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Joseph Ceesay → Salvatore Elia
4th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Mattia Alborghetti → Nermin Karić
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Marco Dalla Vecchia → Francesco Mezzoni
6th Substitution
Event
Fabio Caserta
Argument / 1st Redcard
64'
64'
Event
Stefano Di Mario
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Francesco Mezzoni
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Antonio Candela → Brando Moruzzi
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Luca Magnino
Header / 2nd Goal
50'
Event
Marco Nasti → Daniel Fila
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Gabriele Guarino
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
13'
Event
Bernat Guiu
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

This 1-1 draw highlighted Virtus Entella's grit against a possession-dominant Empoli, who lost a player to a red card after trailing at halftime. The stronger-rated visitors secured a point through defensive solidity, defying structural expectations with a notable deviation. Market misalignment and red card effects defined the outcome, keeping efficiency steady amid disruptions. Both teams share spoils, with Empoli rueing the dismissal and Virtus Entella building momentum.

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