Dynamo Makhachkala vs Zenit Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Anzhi-Arena Sun, 19 Apr - 11:30 AM
Premier League
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala
0 Winner 1
Zenit ZSP
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 25 Regular Season
|
Goal
Nikita Glushkov - 78' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested Russian Premier League clash, Dynamo Makhachkala hosted powerhouse Zenit at their home ground, resulting in a narrow 0-1 defeat for the hosts. The first half ended goalless, with both sides probing cautiously amid balanced chances despite Zenit's clear superiority in possession at 65% to Dynamo's 35%. The breakthrough came in the second half when Zenit capitalized on their dominance, slotting home the decisive goal to secure all three points. Dynamo fought resiliently but struggled to convert limited opportunities, while Zenit maintained control without facing any red card threats. This victory underscores Zenit's structural edge, aligning with their status as the stronger side, though the low-scoring affair highlighted defensive solidity from both teams. No major tactical adjustments were evident post-halftime, keeping the game within expected parameters.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zenit recorded a significant 100% deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market consensus.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying metrics.
  • Event impact: No key events disrupted the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Mukhtarov
R. Mukhtarov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.59
A. Khatuev
A. Khatuev
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.59
N. Novikov
N. Novikov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.59
I. Tanashev
I. Tanashev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.59
Dynamo Makhachkala V. Evseev
V. Evseev
VS
Zenit S. Semak
S. Semak
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.46
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
CSKA Moskva Rank: L
Orenburg Rank: W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: W
Spartak Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dynamo Makhachkala
0%
Draw
0%
Away Zenit
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.62
43.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dynamo Makhachkala
Zenit
Power Score
20.62
43.18
League Position
12
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Makhachkala Zenit

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dynamo Makhachkala

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zenit
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.00
29.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.15
26.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dynamo Makhachkala -0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Zenit +0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Zenit
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zenit
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dynamo Makhachkala Zenit
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dynamo Makhachkala Zenit
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Zenit
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dynamo Makhachkala
vs
Zenit
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dynamo Makhachkala Zenit
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.17
Zenit 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dynamo Makhachkala Zenit
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.02
Zenit 0.00
Dynamo Makhachkala
Zenit
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZSP had peak pressure around 76'.
  • ZSP started the game with stronger pressure.
Dynamo Makhachkala Pressure ZSP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZSP reached the top pressure at 76' (98.44).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Home
3 matches
Zenit ZSP Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
1
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:01:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
D. Volk
Russia
27 D. Volk
M. Azzi
Substitution
Algeria
22 M. Azzi
A. Alarcón Mendoza
Colombia
24 A. Alarcón Mendoza
J. Tabidze
Georgia
5 J. Tabidze
T. Sundukov
Russia
77 T. Sundukov
I. Akhmedov
43 I. Akhmedov
E. Moubarik
Morocco
6 E. Moubarik
H. Eddine Mrezigue
Algeria
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
Substitution
Iran
10 M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
N. Glushkov
Russia
47 N. Glushkov
V. Pinto Domingos
Substitution
Angola
11 V. Pinto Domingos
D. Adamov
Russia
16 D. Adamov
D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
Substitution
Brazil
3 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
M. Mota Filho
Brazil
33 M. Mota Filho
I. Diveev
Russia
78 I. Diveev
V. Drkušić
Slovenia
6 V. Drkušić
W. Barrios Terán
Colombia
5 W. Barrios Terán
J. dos Santos Rosa
Substitution
Brazil
14 J. dos Santos Rosa
M. Valle da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
8 M. Valle da Silva
M. Glushenkov
Substitution
Russia
10 M. Glushenkov
L. Rosa da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 L. Rosa da Silva
A. Sobolev
Russia
7 A. Sobolev

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium
Anzhi-Arena
Capacity
28000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Rustam Mukhtarov
Adlan Khatuev
Nikita Novikov
Inal Tanashev

Statistics

Possession
Dynamo Makhachkala
38%
ZSP
62%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 5
42 Dangerous attacks 59
35 Possession 65
5 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 18
16 Successful Headers 16
4 Successful Dribbles 11
20 Throwins 23
12 Goal Kicks 6
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Injuries 1
0 Penalties 1
4 Goal Attempts 12
3 Substitutions 5
72 Ball Safe 83

Attacking

81 Attacks 93
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 44
62 Successful Passes Percentage 82
26 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
160 Successful Passes 404
72 Long Passes 77
258 Passes 495

Defensive

13 Tackles 14
39 Duels Won 59
17 Interceptions 10
6 Saves 2

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 21
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

19 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

27
David Volk
David Volk Goalkeeper
6.5
5
Jemal Tabidze
Jemal Tabidze Defender
6.67
22
Mohamed Azzi
Mohamed Azzi Defender
6.78
13
Soslan Kagermazov
Soslan Kagermazov
Defender78'
6.6
24
Andrés Alarcón
Andrés Alarcón Defender
6.55
77
Temirkan Sundukov
Temirkan Sundukov Defender
6.61
6
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
6.8
10
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad Midfielder
6.85
25
Gamid Agalarov
Gamid Agalarov
Attacker57'
6.72
16
Houssem Mrezigue
Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
6.96
43
Ilyas Akhmedov
Ilyas Akhmedov Midfielder
6.68
47
Nikita Glushkov
Nikita Glushkov Midfielder
6.68
11
Miro
Miro Attacker
6.63
28
Serder Serderov
Serder Serderov
Attacker72'
6.62
Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

16
Denis Adamov
Denis Adamov Goalkeeper
6.97
3
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos Defender
6.99
66
Román Vega
Román Vega
Defender75'
6.94
6
Vanja Drkusic
Vanja Drkusic Defender
6.74
33
Nino
Nino Defender
7.05
78
Igor Diveev
Igor Diveev Defender
7.2
5
Wilmar Barrios
Wilmar Barrios Midfielder
6.95
8
Wendel
Wendel Midfielder
7.05
61
Daniil Kondakov
Daniil Kondakov
Midfielder75'
6.55
10
Maksim Glushenkov
Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder
7.35
28
Nuraly Alip
Nuraly Alip
Defender90+3'
6.83
11
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique Midfielder
7.03
17
Andrey Mostovoy
Andrey Mostovoy
Midfielder75'
6.87
14
Jhon Jhon
Jhon Jhon Midfielder
7.1
20
Pedro
Pedro
Attacker46'
6.92
7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker
6.95

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Nuraly Alip → Maksim Glushenkov
8th Substitution
Event
Soslan Kagermazov
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
86'
Event
Maksim Glushenkov
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Soslan Kagermazov → Mohamed Azzi
7th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Nikita Glushkov
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
75'
Event
Andrey Mostovoy → Luiz Henrique
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Daniil Kondakov → Wendel
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Román Vega → Douglas Santos
6th Substitution
Event
Serder Serderov → Miro
3rd Substitution
72'
70'
Event
Aleksandr Sobolev
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Gamid Agalarov → Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
2nd Substitution
57'
46'
Event
Pedro → Jhon Jhon
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mohamed Azzi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'

CONCLUSION

Zenit's disciplined performance and possession mastery proved decisive against a gritty Dynamo Makhachkala, clinching a 0-1 road win that reinforces their league standing. The goalless first half gave way to a clinical second-half strike, reflecting their superior quality without reliance on extraordinary luck or controversy. Dynamo's defensive resolve kept the scoreline tight, but they couldn't overcome the visitors' control. This outcome fits neatly with Zenit's favored status, showing structural consistency and market harmony in a match devoid of red cards or major disruptions. Expect Zenit to build momentum from this solid away result.

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