Dynamo Makhachkala vs Orenburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Anzhi-Arena Fri, 13 Mar - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala
1 Winner 0
Orenburg Orenburg
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 4:30 PM
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad - 28'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Dynamo Makhachkala and Orenburg has officially finished, with the home side securing a 1-0 full-time victory. Dynamo Makhachkala took the lead in the first half to make it 1-0 at the break, and that lone goal proved decisive as neither side found the back of the net in the second half. Pre-match market probabilities were entirely neutral, yet the final result was ultimately aligned with overall market expectations. Dynamo Makhachkala, identified as the stronger team, produced a significant deviation from baseline metrics to claim the victory. On the pitch, Orenburg held a slight majority of the ball with 54% possession compared to Dynamo Makhachkala's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so a direct comparison between underlying chance quality and the final outcome cannot be made. However, the result was in line with overall efficiency shifts, as the home side posted a positive 1.0056 efficiency rating compared to Orenburg's -1.0056. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards, meaning sudden disciplinary events did not impact the flow or outcome of this closely fought contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dynamo Makhachkala showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Chistyakov
A. Chistyakov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Dynamo Makhachkala V. Evseev
V. Evseev
VS
Orenburg I. Akhmetzyanov
I. Akhmetzyanov
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.85
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 59 W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 50 L
Sochi Rank: 50 D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 68 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 74 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: 79 W
Akron Rank: 56 W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 57 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 74 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dynamo Makhachkala
0%
Draw
0%
Away Orenburg
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.86
51.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dynamo Makhachkala
Orenburg
Power Score
56.86
51.73
League Position
12
14
Global Rank
554
686

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Makhachkala Orenburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dynamo Makhachkala

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.41
19.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.17
31.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dynamo Makhachkala +1.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Orenburg -1.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Orenburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dynamo Makhachkala Orenburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dynamo Makhachkala Orenburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Orenburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Home
3 matches
Orenburg Orenburg Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:04:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Volk
Russia
27 D. Volk
M. Azzi
Algeria
22 M. Azzi
I. Shumakhov
Substitution
Russia
4 (C) I. Shumakhov
J. Tabidze
Georgia
5 J. Tabidze
J. Đapo
Substitution
Slovenia
71 J. Đapo
H. Eddine Mrezigue
Algeria
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
E. Moubarik
Morocco
6 E. Moubarik
N. Glushkov
Russia
47 N. Glushkov
M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
Substitution
Iran
10 M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
T. Sundukov
Russia
77 T. Sundukov
G. Agalarov
Substitution
Russia
25 G. Agalarov
B. Ovsyannikov
Russia
1 B. Ovsyannikov
D. Vedernikov
Substitution
Russia
3 D. Vedernikov
E. Tsenov
Bulgaria
26 E. Tsenov
J. Palacios Santos
Colombia
6 J. Palacios Santos
F. Moufi
Morocco
18 (C) F. Moufi
T. Avanesian
Armenia
59 T. Avanesian
E. Santos Queiroz
Substitution
Brazil
37 E. Santos Queiroz
F. Gürlük
Substitution
Turkey
7 F. Gürlük
D. Puebla
Substitution
Argentina
8 D. Puebla
J. Thompson
Chile
16 J. Thompson
M. Savelyev
Substitution
Russia
9 M. Savelyev

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Anzhi-Arena
Capacity
28000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Artem Chistyakov

Statistics

Possession
Dynamo Makhachkala
49%
Orenburg
51%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 8
49 Dangerous attacks 47
46 Possession 54
6 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 7
6 Dribble Attempts 13
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
3 Successful Dribbles 5
22 Throwins 21
11 Successful Headers 23

Attacking

89 Attacks 103
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 16
252 Passes 284
64 Long Passes 46
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
167 Successful Passes 199
66 Successful Passes Percentage 70

Defensive

15 Tackles 6
3 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 7

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 26
10 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Artem Chistyakov

Starting XI ▼

27
David Volk
David Volk Goalkeeper
6.9
4
Idar Shumakhov
Idar Shumakhov (C) Defender
6.7
24
Andrés Alarcón
Andrés Alarcón
Midfielder43'
6.67
5
Jemal Tabidze
Jemal Tabidze Defender
6.73
22
Mohamed Azzi
Mohamed Azzi Defender
6.95
71
Jan Dapo
Jan Dapo Defender
6.53
19
Kirill Zinovich
Kirill Zinovich
Midfielder63'
6.77
6
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
7.11
10
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad Midfielder
7.79
43
Ilyas Akhmedov
Ilyas Akhmedov
Defender85'
6.55
16
Houssem Mrezigue
Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
7.4
47
Nikita Glushkov
Nikita Glushkov Midfielder
6.85
77
Temirkan Sundukov
Temirkan Sundukov Midfielder
6.36
25
Gamid Agalarov
Gamid Agalarov Attacker
6.73
7
Hazem Mastouri
Hazem Mastouri
Attacker46'
6.66
Referee : Artem Chistyakov

Starting XI ▼

1
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov Goalkeeper
6.88
3
Danila Vedernikov
Danila Vedernikov Defender
6.65
30
G. Guzina
G. Guzina
Attacker78'
6.48
6
Jhon Alex Palacios
Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
6.8
18
Fahd Moufi
Fahd Moufi (C) Defender
6.56
26
Emil Tsenov
Emil Tsenov Defender
6.49
7
E. Gürlük
E. Gürlük Midfielder
6.27
20
D. Rybchinskiy
D. Rybchinskiy
Midfielder70'
6.86
8
Damián Puebla
Damián Puebla Midfielder
6.43
32
Alexis Cantero
Alexis Cantero
Defender78'
6.49
16
J. Thompson
J. Thompson Midfielder
6.62
37
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz Midfielder
6.38
78
Ruslan Kul
Ruslan Kul
Midfielder70'
6.49
59
Tigran Avanesyan
Tigran Avanesyan Midfielder
6.49
9
M. Savelyev
M. Savelyev Attacker
6.82
19
Alexandre Jesus
Alexandre Jesus
Attacker90'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mohamed Azzi
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
90+2'
Event
Fahd Moufi
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Alexandre Jesus → M. Savelyev
9th Substitution
Event
Ilyas Akhmedov → Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Penalty disallowed
83'
78'
Event
Alexis Cantero → Damián Puebla
6th Substitution
78'
Event
G. Guzina → Danila Vedernikov
7th Substitution
70'
Event
D. Rybchinskiy → E. Gürlük
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Ruslan Kul → Du Queiroz
4th Substitution
Event
Kirill Zinovich → Jan Dapo
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Hazem Mastouri → Gamid Agalarov
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Andrés Alarcón → Idar Shumakhov
1st Substitution
43'
36'
Event
Damián Puebla
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
28'
Event
Jan Dapo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dynamo Makhachkala exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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