Dundee vs Celtic Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park Sun, 5 Apr - 3:30 PM
Premiership
Dundee DUD
1 Winner 2
Celtic CEL
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Simon Murray - 57' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Hyun-jun Yang - 8'
Kelechi Iheanacho - 82'
Ryan Astley 84' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Dundee and Celtic has finished in a 1-1 draw. This final score represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Celtic entered the contest as the decidedly stronger side with a commanding 61.5% probability of victory. Conversely, Dundee held just a 16.5% chance of winning, with a draw priced at 22%. Ultimately, the final outcome was entirely unaligned with the pre-match market. Celtic controlled the tempo for much of the game, holding 58% possession compared to Dundee's 42%, and the visitors took a 1-0 lead into the half-time break. However, the game's narrative shifted dramatically in the second half, heavily impacted by a red card distortion. Dundee received the only red card of the match, yet the ten-man home side remarkably managed to equalize and secure a point. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome aligned with the exact balance of scoring chances. However, the overall efficiency shift for the match was recorded as being in line with standard baseline expectations. Celtic will inevitably rue their inability to secure all three points despite their statistical advantages.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celtic showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. McLean
S. McLean
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
C. Spence
C. Spence
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
D. Ross
D. Ross
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
G. Grainger
G. Grainger
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
VS
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 72 L
Dundee United Rank: 60 D
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 D
Aberdeen Rank: 56 W
Livingston Rank: 53 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 60 L
Motherwell Rank: 68 W
Aberdeen Rank: 56 W
Rangers Rank: 77 D
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 5 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dundee
16.54%
Draw
22%
Away Celtic
61.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.53
77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dundee
Celtic
Power Score
58.53
77
League Position
8
3
Global Rank
511
82

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee Celtic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celtic
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.38
34.66
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.66
22.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dundee -1.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Celtic +1.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
Celtic
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celtic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dundee Celtic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dundee Celtic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
Celtic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dundee
vs
Celtic
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dundee Celtic
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dundee 0.29
Celtic 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dundee Celtic
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dundee 0.03
Celtic 0.04
Dundee
Celtic
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee DUD Home
31 matches
Celtic CEL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
25
5
Draws
5
25
Losses
1
Goals
16
Goals Scored
82
82
Goals Conceded
16
-66
Goal Difference
+66
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:04:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. McCracken
Scotland
1 J. McCracken
B. Halliday
England
16 B. Halliday
R. Astley
Wales
4 R. Astley
L. Graham
Scotland
22 L. Graham
D. Wright
Substitution
England
7 D. Wright
E. Hamilton
Scotland
48 E. Hamilton
C. Congreve
Wales
20 C. Congreve
Y. Dhanda
Substitution
England
21 Y. Dhanda
F. Robertson
Substitution
Scotland
10 F. Robertson
T. Yogane
Substitution
England
17 T. Yogane
S. Murray
Substitution
Scotland
15 S. Murray
V. Sinisalo
Finland
12 V. Sinisalo
K. Tierney
Substitution
Scotland
63 K. Tierney
L. Scales
Republic of Ireland
5 L. Scales
A. Trusty
United States
6 A. Trusty
C. Donovan
Substitution
51 C. Donovan
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
Substitution
England
21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
C. McGregor
Scotland
42 C. McGregor
D. Maeda
Substitution
Japan
38 D. Maeda
B. Nygren
Sweden
8 B. Nygren
H. Yang
South Korea
13 H. Yang
T. Čvančara
Substitution
Czech Republic
11 T. Čvančara

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park
Capacity
12085
Attendance
9007
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Steven McLean
Calum Spence
Douglas Ross
Graham Grainger

Statistics

Possession
DUD
44%
CEL
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
6 Shots 8
28 Dangerous attacks 62
42 Possession 58
1 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
12 Dribble Attempts 19
0 Assists 2
7 Successful Dribbles 8
13 Goal Kicks 7
4 Goal Attempts 13
103 Ball Safe 99
9 Successful Headers 11
20 Throwins 23
0 Hit Woodwork 2
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

101 Attacks 120
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

401 Passes 552
6 Key Passes 13
307 Successful Passes 461
75 Long Passes 64
77 Successful Passes Percentage 84
32 Successful Long Passes 27
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

10 Interceptions 8
16 Tackles 17
44 Duels Won 43
5 Saves 2

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 22
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

7 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

1
Jon McCracken
Jon McCracken Goalkeeper
4
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley Defender
7
Drey Wright
Drey Wright Defender
18
Charlie Reilly
Charlie Reilly
Attacker90+2'
16
Brad Halliday
Brad Halliday Defender
22
Luke Graham
Luke Graham Defender
10
Finlay Robertson
Finlay Robertson Midfielder
24
Joel Cotterill
Joel Cotterill
Midfielder67'
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane Midfielder
25
Scott Wright
Scott Wright
Attacker73'
20
Cameron Congreve
Cameron Congreve Midfielder
21
Yan Dhanda
Yan Dhanda Midfielder
5
Billy Koumetio
Billy Koumetio
Defender90+2'
48
Ethan Hamilton
Ethan Hamilton Midfielder
15
Simon Murray
Simon Murray Attacker
11
Ashley Hay
Ashley Hay
Attacker67'
Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales Defender
6
Auston Trusty
Auston Trusty Defender
51
Colby Donovan
Colby Donovan Defender
56
Anthony Ralston
Anthony Ralston
Defender67'
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
36
Marcelo Saracchi
Marcelo Saracchi
Defender76'
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
21
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Midfielder
14
Luke McCowan
Luke McCowan
Midfielder67'
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Midfielder
49
James Forrest
James Forrest
Midfielder76'
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor Midfielder
11
Tomas Cvancara
Tomas Cvancara Attacker
17
Kelechi Iheanacho
Kelechi Iheanacho
Attacker58'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Anthony Ralston
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Billy Koumetio → Yan Dhanda
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Charlie Reilly → Drey Wright
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Ryan Astley
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
84'
82'
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
Event
James Forrest → Daizen Maeda
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Marcelo Saracchi → Kieran Tierney
8th Substitution
Event
Scott Wright → Tony Yogane
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Ashley Hay → Simon Murray
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Joel Cotterill → Finlay Robertson
2nd Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Anthony Ralston → Colby Donovan
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Luke McCowan → Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Liam Scales
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
58'
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho → Tomas Cvancara
1st Substitution
Event
Simon Murray
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
57'
Event
Ryan Astley
Penalty awarded
55'
1ST-HALF
8'
Event
Hyun-jun Yang
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anthony Ralston of Celtic receives a yellow card in the 97th minute.
90
Substitution Substitution
Billy Koumetio is substituted for Dundee in the 92nd minute.
90
Substitution Substitution
Charlie Reilly is substituted for Dundee in the 92nd minute.
84
Red Card Red Card Important
Ryan Astley from Dundee receives a red card in the 84th minute.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kelechi Iheanacho scores for Celtic in the 82nd minute.
76
Substitution Substitution
James Forrest is substituted for Celtic in the 76th minute.
76
Substitution Substitution
Marcelo Saracchi is substituted for Celtic in the 76th minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Scott Wright is substituted for Dundee in the 73rd minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Luke McCowan is substituted for Celtic in the 67th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Ashley Hay is substituted for Dundee in the 67th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Marcelo Saracchi is substituted for Celtic in the 67th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Joel Cotterill is substituted for Dundee in the 67th minute.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Scales of Celtic receives a yellow card in the 63rd minute.
58
Substitution Substitution
Kelechi Iheanacho is substituted for Celtic in the 58th minute.
57
Update Update
Simon Murray scores a penalty for Dundee in the 57th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Celtic exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premiership View all league clusters