Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Maksimir Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
2 – 2
Rijeka Rijeka
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Dion Beljo - 5', 86' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Tiago Dantas - 51' (P), 71' (P)
|
Second yellow card Ante Orec 84'

CONTEXT

Dinamo Zagreb hosted Rijeka in a competitive Croatian league match, controlling 56% possession and leading 1-0 at halftime as the stronger team. However, Rijeka staged a remarkable comeback in the second half, scoring twice to secure a 2-2 draw despite receiving a red card and playing with 10 men. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 78.7% from expectations for Dinamo Zagreb, who failed to convert dominance into victory. The result did not align with pre-market assessments, where Dinamo held strong favoritism. Efficiency shifts remained in line with prior evaluations, but the red card introduced notable distortion, enabling Rijeka's resilience. Absent xG data limits deeper performance insights, yet the draw highlights Rijeka's second-half adjustments under adversity.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match ended in a 78.7% significant deviation from Dinamo Zagreb's expected win.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome misaligned with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without provided metrics.
  • Event impact: Rijeka's red card altered second-half momentum significantly.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Rijeka caused distortion in second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Pavlešić
P. Pavlešić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
K. Novosel
K. Novosel
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Z. Lovrić
Z. Lovrić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
G. Pataki
G. Pataki
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
2.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: W
Osijek Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Hajduk Split Rank: W
Gorica Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
40
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
40 - 20 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Zagreb
66.89%
Draw
21.26%
Away Rijeka
11.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dinamo Zagreb
+48.32%
Draw
-58.78%
Rijeka
+10.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
42.33
26.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Zagreb
Rijeka
Power Score
42.33
26.36
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Zagreb Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.29
28.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.98
24.29
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Zagreb -0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka +0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Zagreb Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 2.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
2.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Rijeka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Zagreb Rijeka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Zagreb 0.38
Rijeka 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Rijeka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Zagreb 0.06
Rijeka 0.06
Dinamo Zagreb
Rijeka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rijeka had peak pressure around 20'.
  • Rijeka started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure Rijeka Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rijeka reached the top pressure at 20' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 72 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Zagreb GNK Home
72 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
40
Wins
12
20
Draws
20
12
Losses
40
Goals
146
Goals Scored
73
73
Goals Conceded
146
+73
Goal Difference
-73
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:03:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Livaković
Croatia
40 D. Livaković
N. Galesic
Croatia
15 N. Galesic
S. Domínguez Viloria
Spain
36 S. Domínguez Viloria
S. McKenna
Substitution
Scotland
26 S. McKenna
B. Goda
Substitution
Croatia
3 B. Goda
L. Stojković
Croatia
7 L. Stojković
J. Mišić
Croatia
27 J. Mišić
M. Zajc
Substitution
Slovenia
8 M. Zajc
M. Bakrar
Substitution
Algeria
71 M. Bakrar
D. Dijon
Croatia
9 D. Dijon
G. Vidović
Substitution
Croatia
10 G. Vidović
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 M. Zlomislić
C. Legbo Ouguehi
Ivory Coast
24 C. Legbo Ouguehi
S. Radeljić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 S. Radeljić
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
A. Oreč
Croatia
22 A. Oreč
A. Husic
Substitution
Switzerland
51 A. Husic
T. Dantas
Portugal
26 T. Dantas
J. Lasickas
Lithuania
23 J. Lasickas
A. Gojak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
M. Ndockyt
Substitution
Republic of the Congo
20 M. Ndockyt
D. Adu-Adjei
Substitution
England
18 D. Adu-Adjei

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Maksimir
Capacity
24851
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrik Pavlešić
Kristijan Novosel
Zdenko Lovrić
Goran Pataki

Statistics

Possession
GNK
53%
Rijeka
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 4
32 Dangerous attacks 35
56 Possession 44
7 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
3 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 3
6 Dribble Attempts 11
8 Goal Kicks 10
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
16 Throwins 22
1 Penalties 2

Attacking

59 Attacks 62
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
355 Passes 282
37 Long Passes 55
87 Successful Passes Percentage 82
310 Successful Passes 232
22 Successful Long Passes 21
8 Key Passes 6

Defensive

5 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 0
41 Duels Won 42
14 Tackles 12

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 6
19 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
16 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

40
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.7
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda Defender
6.78
22
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Defender76'
6.97
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic Defender
6.82
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Defender
7.14
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic
Defender46'
6.89
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Defender
7.12
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Midfielder
7.26
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
7.57
14
Marko Soldo
Marko Soldo
Midfielder71'
6.77
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic Midfielder
7.22
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
2
7.49
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic Attacker
7.03
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha
Attacker23'
6.95
71
Monsef Bakrar
Monsef Bakrar Attacker
6.89
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica
Attacker71'
7.04
Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6.71
6
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Defender
6.94
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
7.06
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo Defender
6.59
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
6.9
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
6.58
20
Merveil Ndockyt
Merveil Ndockyt Midfielder
6.69
9
Duje Cop
Duje Cop
Attacker59'
6.58
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Midfielder
6.67
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
2
7.27
51
Anel Husic
Anel Husic Midfielder
6.71
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic
Midfielder16'
6.48
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
6.74
91
Noel Bodetic
Noel Bodetic
Defender88'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Noel Bodetic → Daniel Adu-Adjei
8th Substitution
Event
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 3rd Penalty
86'
85'
Event
Stjepan Radeljic
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Arbër Hoxha
Penalty awarded
84'
84'
Event
Ante Orec
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf → Bruno Goda
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Dion Beljo
Goal disallowed
74'
Event
Mateo Lisica → Monsef Bakrar
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Marko Soldo → Miha Zajc
6th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Tiago Dantas
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Event
Moris Valincic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
59'
Event
Duje Cop → Merveil Ndockyt
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Ante Orec
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Tiago Dantas
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
50'
Event
Tiago Dantas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Moris Valincic → Scott McKenna
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Arbër Hoxha → Gabriel Vidovic
2nd Substitution
23'
16'
Event
Branko Pavic → Anel Husic
1st Substitution
Event
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

CONCLUSION

Dinamo Zagreb's 2-2 draw against 10-man Rijeka exposed vulnerabilities despite 56% possession and a halftime lead. The stronger home side suffered a significant deviation and market misalignment, as Rijeka capitalized on second-half opportunities post-red card. Efficiency aligned with norms, but the event distorted proceedings, allowing the visitors to equalize twice. This result underscores Rijeka's grit under pressure, while prompting Dinamo to refine finishing and game management. Without xG, full performance context remains partial, yet the draw shifts momentum narratives ahead of upcoming fixtures.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

1. HNL View all league clusters