Dender vs Cercle Brugge Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Van Roystadion Sun, 19 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Dender DEN
1 Winner 4
Cercle Brugge CBR
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 3 Relegation Round
Noah Mbamba - 45+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Geoffrey Kondo - 2'
Ibrahima Diaby - 46'
Steve Ngoura - 54'
Edan Diop - 61'

CONTEXT

In a high-octane Belgian Pro League clash, Cercle Brugge delivered a commanding 4-1 victory over FC Dender, overturning a 1-1 halftime deadlock. Dender, buoyed by 59% possession, started brightly with an early lead but faltered as Cercle Brugge exploded in the second half, netting three unanswered goals to secure a decisive win. The away side, pegged as the stronger team pre-match, showcased clinical finishing despite less ball control, highlighting their superior conversion rate. No red cards disrupted play, allowing a free-flowing contest that swung dramatically after the break. This result underscores Cercle's efficiency in exploiting transitions, while Dender's dominance in possession yielded minimal threat. The outcome reflects the visitors' quality in a match defined by second-half momentum shifts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result deviated significantly by 51.1% in favor of Cercle Brugge.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Boterberg
J. Boterberg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.48
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
N. Senecaut
N. Senecaut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.48
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
M. De Cuyper
M. De Cuyper
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.48
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
M. Ledda
M. Ledda
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.48
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Dender A. Abdul Raouf
A. Abdul Raouf
VS
Cercle Brugge L. Friis
L. Friis
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
La Louvière Rank: W
Gent Rank: L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: D
Cercle Brugge Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
La Louvière Rank: W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: D
Anderlecht Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: L
Sint-Truiden Rank: L
Dender Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dender
25.81%
Draw
25.29%
Away Cercle Brugge
48.9%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dender
+25.32%
Draw
+23.38%
Cercle Brugge
-48.7%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.35
21.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dender
Cercle Brugge
Power Score
15.35
21.42
League Position
16
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dender — Opponent-weighted form score
Cercle Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dender Cercle Brugge

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dender

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cercle Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.14
53.66
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
53.66
18.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dender -3.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Cercle Brugge +3.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
Cercle Brugge
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dender Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dender Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
Cercle Brugge
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dender
vs
Cercle Brugge
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dender Cercle Brugge
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dender 0.15
Cercle Brugge 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dender Cercle Brugge
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dender 0.07
Cercle Brugge 0.02
Dender
Cercle Brugge
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CBR had peak pressure around 66'.
  • CBR started the game with stronger pressure.
DEN Pressure CBR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CBR reached the top pressure at 66' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dender DEN Home
8 matches
Cercle Brugge CBR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
5
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:04:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
G. Gallon
Substitution
France
93 G. Gallon
J. Sambu Mansoni
Belgium
70 J. Sambu Mansoni
B. De Kerf
Substitution
6 B. De Kerf
L. Marijnissen
Netherlands
5 L. Marijnissen
B. Goncalves
Substitution
France
7 B. Goncalves
N. Rodes
Belgium
18 N. Rodes
M. Viltard
France
24 M. Viltard
A. Jahanbakhsh
Iran
27 A. Jahanbakhsh
N. Mbamba
Belgium
17 N. Mbamba
D. Hrnčár
Substitution
Slovakia
20 D. Hrnčár
D. Toshevski
Substitution
Macedonia
9 D. Toshevski
W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
Brazil
1 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
V. Konaté
Ivory Coast
12 V. Konaté
G. Kondo
France
24 G. Kondo
M. Diaby
Guinea
19 M. Diaby
F. Jacinto Nazinho
Portugal
20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
E. Diop
France
37 E. Diop
H. Van der Bruggen
Substitution
Belgium
28 H. Van der Bruggen
P. Gerkens
Substitution
Belgium
18 P. Gerkens
I. Diakité
Substitution
Guinea
2 I. Diakité
S. Ngoura
Substitution
France
9 S. Ngoura
D. Vanzeir
Substitution
Belgium
13 D. Vanzeir

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 3 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Van Roystadion
Capacity
8157
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jan Boterberg
N. Senecaut
Michiel De Cuyper
Massimiliano Ledda

Statistics

Possession
DEN
55%
CBR
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
2 Big Chances Created 6
2 Shots 3
54 Dangerous attacks 60
59 Possession 41
4 Corners 6
10 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Assists 3
91 Ball Safe 74
2 Injuries 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
11 Successful Dribbles 12
8 Goal Kicks 9
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
5 Substitutions 5
18 Dribble Attempts 18
23 Throwins 12
6 Goal Attempts 16

Attacking

104 Attacks 91
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 74
70 Long Passes 51
32 Successful Long Passes 16
350 Successful Passes 240
464 Passes 326
7 Key Passes 12
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

Defensive

8 Saves 1
54 Duels Won 49
6 Interceptions 12
16 Tackles 12

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 13
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

93
Gauthier Gallon
Gauthier Gallon Goalkeeper
7.1
30
Guillaume Dietsch
Guillaume Dietsch
Goalkeeper66'
6.78
5
Luc Marijnissen
Luc Marijnissen Defender
6.76
6
Bo De Kerf
Bo De Kerf Defender
6.65
11
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Attacker60'
6.66
7
Bryan Goncalves
Bryan Goncalves Defender
6.89
67
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui
Defender72'
6.36
70
Marsoni Sambu
Marsoni Sambu Defender
6.64
17
Noah Mbamba
Noah Mbamba Midfielder
6.82
18
Nathan Rôdes
Nathan Rôdes Midfielder
6.58
20
David Hrncar
David Hrncar Midfielder
6.62
44
Luc De Fougerolles
Luc De Fougerolles
Defender60'
6.71
24
Malcolm Viltard
Malcolm Viltard Midfielder
6.75
27
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Alireza Jahanbakhsh Midfielder
6.68
9
David Toševski
David Toševski Attacker
6.69
77
Bruny Nsimba
Bruny Nsimba
Attacker72'
7
Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

1
Warleson
Warleson Goalkeeper
6.97
12
Valy Konaté
Valy Konaté Defender
6.89
19
Ibrahima Diaby
Ibrahima Diaby Defender
6.63
24
Geoffrey Kondo
Geoffrey Kondo Defender
6.84
2
Ibrahim Diakité
Ibrahim Diakité Midfielder
6.53
33
Royer Caicedo
Royer Caicedo
Defender74'
6.4
18
Pieter Gerkens
Pieter Gerkens Midfielder
6.89
23
Heriberto Jurado
Heriberto Jurado
Midfielder66'
6.5
20
Nazinho
Nazinho Midfielder
7.11
28
Hannes Van Der Bruggen
Hannes Van Der Bruggen Midfielder
6.81
27
Nils De Wilde
Nils De Wilde
Defender80'
6.53
37
Edan Diop
Edan Diop Midfielder
6.98
9
Steve Ngoura
Steve Ngoura Attacker
6.73
10
Oumar Diakité
Oumar Diakité
Attacker66'
6.77
13
Dante Vanzeir
Dante Vanzeir Attacker
6.41
17
Oluwaseun Adewumi
Oluwaseun Adewumi
Attacker66'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
80'
Event
Nils De Wilde → Hannes Van Der Bruggen
10th Substitution
74'
Event
Royer Caicedo → Ibrahim Diakité
9th Substitution
Event
Bruny Nsimba → David Toševski
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui → Bryan Goncalves
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Malcolm Viltard
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Guillaume Dietsch → Gauthier Gallon
5th Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Oumar Diakité → Steve Ngoura
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Oluwaseun Adewumi → Dante Vanzeir
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Heriberto Jurado → Pieter Gerkens
6th Substitution
61'
Event
Edan Diop
Header / 5th Goal
Event
Luc De Fougerolles → David Hrncar
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Ragnar Oratmangoen → Bo De Kerf
2nd Substitution
60'
54'
Event
Steve Ngoura
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
46'
Event
Ibrahima Diaby
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Noah Mbamba
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+2'
Event
Marsoni Sambu
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
40'
Event
Var
29'
2'
Event
Geoffrey Kondo
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Cercle Brugge's 4-1 triumph over Dender validates their status as the stronger outfit, transforming a level halftime scoreline into a rout through second-half dominance. With Dender holding majority possession yet failing to convert, Cercle's ruthless edge proved decisive in a clean, undisrupted affair. This performance aligns with pre-match assessments, showing no efficiency anomalies or structural surprises beyond the expected away strength. Fans witnessed a tale of two halves, where clinical execution trumped territorial control, reinforcing Cercle's credentials in the league.

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