CSKA Moskva vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VEB Arena
Sun, 8 Mar - 4:30 PM
Premier League
CSKA Moskva
CSKA Moskva
1
4
4
Dinamo Moskva
DMO
Full Time
Sun, 8 Mar
4:30 PM
Moisés - 58'
|
Nicolás Marichal - 13', 45+4'
Bitello - 66'
Ivan Sergeev - 84'
Luciano Gondou 17'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
Match is finished. CSKA Moskva 1–2 Dinamo Moskva. The result saw Dinamo Moskva take the points. Dinamo Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Dinamo Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Petrosyan
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
10.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.25
A. Obrazko
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
10.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.25
I. Kaplenkov
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
10.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.25
S. Ivanov
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
10.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.25
F. Celestini
VS
R. Gusev
1.75
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny
Rank:
L
Krasnodar
Rank:
L
Orenburg
Rank:
W
Spartak Moskva
Rank:
L
Dynamo Makhachkala
Rank:
W
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov
Rank:
W
Spartak Moskva
Rank:
D
Akhmat Grozny
Rank:
L
Dynamo Makhachkala
Rank:
W
Akron
Rank:
L
Rubin Kazan
Rank:
D
13
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 13 - 17
17
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
CSKA Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Dinamo Moskva
0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60
45
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
Power Score
60
45
League Position
5
7
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
CSKA Moskva
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Moskva
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
CSKA Moskva Dinamo Moskva
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
CSKA Moskva
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Dinamo Moskva
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
CSKA Moskva
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Dinamo Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
60.11
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
CSKA Moskva
-3.70
Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Moskva
+3.70
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
CSKA Moskva
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Dinamo Moskva
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
CSKA Moskva
CSKA Moskva
Home
11
matches
Dinamo Moskva
DMO
Away
Match Record
5
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
5
Goals
20
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
20
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:17:13+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
VEB Arena
Capacity
30457
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Varantso Petrosyan
Andrey Obrazko
Igor Kaplenkov
Sergey Ivanov
Statistics
Possession
CSKA Moskva
55%
DMO
45%
Top Statistics
0
Big Chances Created
1
1
Shots
7
49
Dangerous attacks
49
56
Possession
44
8
Corners
9
15
Free kicks
8
0
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
Match Overview
23
Dribble Attempts
10
16
Successful Headers
6
8
Goal Kicks
5
17
Throwins
12
30
Successful Dribbles Percentage
20
1
Assists
3
7
Successful Dribbles
2
Attacking
114
Attacks
83
Possession
48
Successful Long Passes Percentage
43
85
Successful Passes Percentage
81
535
Passes
408
455
Successful Passes
332
42
Long Passes
49
20
Successful Long Passes
21
Defensive
3
Saves
2
11
Tackles
21
7
Interceptions
10
Build-up
4
Accurate Crosses
8
24
Total Crosses
29
Discipline
8
Fouls
15
2
Offsides
1
Events
2ND-HALF
Henrique Carmo → Danil Krugovoy
10th Substitution
85'
84'
Ivan Sergeev
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Maksim Voronov → Ivan Oblyakov
9th Substitution
75'
Danila Kozlov → Kirill Glebov
8th Substitution
75'
74'
Ivan Sergeev → Leon Zaydenzal
7th Substitution
73'
A. Kutitskiy → K. Tyukavin
6th Substitution
66'
Bitello
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Tamerlan Musaev → Milan Gajić
5th Substitution
62'
Matheus Alves Nascimento → Dmitri Barinov
4th Substitution
62'
59'
Y. Gladyshev → Rubens
2nd Substitution
59'
Timofey Marinkin → Arthur Gomes
3rd Substitution
Moisés
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
58'
53'
Rubens
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Leon Zaydenzal → Dmitri Skopintsev
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Nicolás Marichal
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
30'
Nicolás Marichal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Luciano Gondou
Foul / 1st Redcard
17'
Luciano Gondou
Card adjusted
16'
13'
Nicolás Marichal
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Dinamo Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.