Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Premier League
Newcastle United
NEW
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Crystal Palace and Newcastle United is finished, with Crystal Palace winning 2-1 after trailing 0-1 at half-time. The home side mounted an effective second-half response to secure the victory despite not controlling the majority of possession. Pre-match expectations had leaned toward Newcastle United, who held a higher projected share of success than Crystal Palace. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Crystal Palace, who performed as the stronger team and claimed a win that did not align with the pre-match projection. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations across the contest. Newcastle United enjoyed more of the ball with 59 percent possession to Crystal Palace’s 41 percent. No red cards were shown to either side, so the outcome was not shaped by any disciplinary events.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Crystal Palace showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Movement
Changes since opening
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Team Power Ranking
i
30.7
25.9
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Crystal Palace
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Crystal Palace
⚠ Proxy
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- CRY had peak pressure around 41'.
- CRY started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:04:28+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Crystal Palace
vs
Fiorentina
League: Europa Conference League
Kickoff: Thu, 16 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi
Newcastle United
vs
AFC Bournemouth
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: St. James' Park
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Match Commentary