Ceuta vs Deportivo La Coruña Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube Sat, 14 Mar - 8:00 PM
La Liga 2
Ceuta Ceuta
1 Winner 2
Deportivo La Coruña COR
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 8:00 PM
Marcos Fernández - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack - 26'
Adrià Altimira - 90+2'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ceuta 1–2 Deportivo La Coruña. The result saw Deportivo La Coruña take the points. Deportivo La Coruña showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deportivo La Coruña showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Cid Camacho
G. Cid Camacho
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
S. López Freixa
S. López Freixa
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
N. Holgueras Castellanos
N. Holgueras Castellanos
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
D. Pescador Hernández
D. Pescador Hernández
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
VS
Deportivo La Coruña A. Hidalgo Morilla
A. Hidalgo Morilla
1.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: 66 W
Granada Rank: 66 W
Huesca Rank: 62 L
Almería Rank: 70 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 60 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 59 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: 69 L
Albacete Rank: 65 W
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 60 W
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Almería Rank: 70 W
Las Palmas Rank: 68 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ceuta
32.26%
Draw
31.03%
Away Deportivo La Coruña
36.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.74
66.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ceuta
Deportivo La Coruña
Power Score
56.74
66.58
League Position
9
3
Global Rank
416
258

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Deportivo La Coruña — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Deportivo La Coruña

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Deportivo La Coruña

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo La Coruña
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.02
26.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.12
39.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ceuta +1.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Deportivo La Coruña -1.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ceuta
Deportivo La Coruña
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo La Coruña
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ceuta Deportivo La Coruña
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ceuta Deportivo La Coruña
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ceuta
Deportivo La Coruña
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home
1 matches
Deportivo La Coruña COR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:45:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
P. López Galisteo
Spain
1 (C) P. López Galisteo
M. Sánchez García
Substitution
Spain
2 M. Sánchez García
A. Caparrós Guzmán
Spain
4 A. Caparrós Guzmán
D. González Cabanes
Spain
15 D. González Cabanes
J. Matos García
Spain
3 J. Matos García
R. Díez Adán
Spain
19 R. Díez Adán
Y. Bodiger
Substitution
France
14 Y. Bodiger
M. Illescas Montaño
Substitution
Spain
12 M. Illescas Montaño
A. Ahmed Ahmed
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Ahmed Ahmed
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
K. Kone
Kenya
22 K. Kone
Á. Fernández Llorente
Spain
25 Á. Fernández Llorente
G. Quagliata
Italy
12 G. Quagliata
A. Comas Freixas
Spain
3 A. Comas Freixas
M. Loureiro Ameijeda
Substitution
Spain
15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
J. Navarro Jiménez
Substitution
Spain
23 J. Navarro Jiménez
L. Cruz Hernández
Spain
19 L. Cruz Hernández
D. Villares Yáñez
Spain
8 (C) D. Villares Yáñez
M. Soriano Carreño
Spain
21 M. Soriano Carreño
A. Altimira Reynaldos
Spain
2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
B. Nsongo Tonfack
Substitution
32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
J. Molina Martínez
Substitution
Spain
22 J. Molina Martínez

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Capacity
6500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Germán Cid Camacho
Sergi López Freixa
Néstor Holgueras Castellanos
Daniel Pescador Hernández

Statistics

Possession
Ceuta
50%
COR
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 3
38 Dangerous attacks 36
51 Possession 49
3 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 4
12 Goal Attempts 9
58 Ball Safe 64
0 Injuries 1
10 Goal Kicks 9
15 Throwins 13
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
4 Successful Dribbles 2
15 Dribble Attempts 8
2 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Assists 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
95 Attacks 82

Possession

335 Successful Passes 338
23 Successful Long Passes 32
8 Key Passes 7
82 Successful Passes Percentage 85
50 Long Passes 57
409 Passes 400
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

14 Tackles 18
5 Interceptions 10
2 Saves 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
24 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

8 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Germán Cid Camacho

Starting XI ▼

1
Pedro López
Pedro López (C) Goalkeeper
6.44
2
Manu Sánchez
Manu Sánchez Defender
6.35
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente
Attacker46'
6.91
3
José Matos
José Matos Defender
6.42
4
Albert Caparrós
Albert Caparrós Defender
6.52
15
Diego González
Diego González Defender
6.35
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Midfielder
7.39
17
Gonzalo Almenara
Gonzalo Almenara
Defender85'
6.26
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Midfielder
7.05
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab
Midfielder73'
6.42
19
Rubén Díez
Rubén Díez Midfielder
7.2
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Attacker
6.67
11
Ignacio Schor
Ignacio Schor
Attacker85'
6.69
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
7.06
22
Kialy Abdoul Kone
Kialy Abdoul Kone Attacker
6.61
Referee : Germán Cid Camacho

Starting XI ▼

25
Álvaro Fernández
Álvaro Fernández Goalkeeper
7.52
3
Arnau Comas
Arnau Comas Defender
6.59
12
Giacomo Quagliata
Giacomo Quagliata Defender
6.89
15
Miguel Loureiro
Miguel Loureiro Defender
6.58
4
Lucas Noubi
Lucas Noubi
Defender46'
6.56
23
Ximo Navarro
Ximo Navarro Defender
7.4
5
Dani Barcia
Dani Barcia
Defender85'
6.42
2
Adrià Altimira
Adrià Altimira Midfielder
7.05
8
Diego Villares
Diego Villares (C) Midfielder
7.37
19
Luismi Cruz
Luismi Cruz Midfielder
7.05
21
Mario Soriano
Mario Soriano Midfielder
6.96
22
Stoichkov
Stoichkov Attacker
7.16
17
Cristian Herrera
Cristian Herrera
Attacker77'
6.61
32
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack Attacker
7.05
7
Samuele Mulattieri
Samuele Mulattieri
Attacker77'
6.38

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Adrià Altimira
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
87'
Event
Dani Barcia
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Gonzalo Almenara → Marino Illescas
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Ignacio Schor → Aisar Ahmed
8th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Dani Barcia → Ximo Navarro
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Samuele Mulattieri → Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Cristian Herrera → Stoichkov
4th Substitution
Event
Youness Lachhab → Yann Bodiger
3rd Substitution
73'
65'
Event
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Konrad de la Fuente → Manu Sánchez
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Lucas Noubi → Miguel Loureiro
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marcos Fernández
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
37'
37'
Event
Giacomo Quagliata
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
José Matos
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
36'
32'
Event
Adrià Altimira
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
Event
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Marcos Fernández
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Deportivo La Coruña exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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