Celtic vs St. Mirren Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Celtic Park Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Celtic CEL
1 Winner 0
St. Mirren STM
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain - 15'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Celtic and St. Mirren is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. Celtic led 1-0 at the interval and successfully protected their narrow advantage through the second period, with no further goals scored by either team. The result showed minimal deviation from pre-match expectations, as Celtic fulfilled their status as the stronger side and claimed the victory widely anticipated beforehand. Possession was shared unevenly, with Celtic holding 56 percent to St. Mirren’s 44 percent, though no expected goals data is available to provide further context on chance quality. Efficiency remained in line with expectations across the contest, and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match projection. No red cards were issued to either side, leaving the result unaffected by any disciplinary events or second-half adjustments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celtic showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Anderson
S. Anderson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
D. Nicolson
D. Nicolson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
D. Graves
D. Graves
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
F. Connor
F. Connor
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
VS
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.84
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: W
Dundee United Rank: L
Motherwell Rank: W
Aberdeen Rank: W
Rangers Rank: D
Hibernian Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen Rank: W
Falkirk Rank: W
Rangers Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: L
Livingston Rank: D
Motherwell Rank: L
44
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
44 - 6 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celtic
96.11%
Draw
3.7%
Away St. Mirren
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Celtic
+0.88%
Draw
-0.88%
St. Mirren
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
40.12
22.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celtic
St. Mirren
Power Score
40.12
22.24
League Position
2
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celtic St. Mirren

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celtic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Mirren
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.04
15.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.68
18.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celtic +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Mirren -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celtic
St. Mirren
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celtic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Mirren
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celtic St. Mirren
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celtic St. Mirren
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Celtic
St. Mirren
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Celtic
vs
St. Mirren
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Celtic St. Mirren
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Celtic 0.11
St. Mirren 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Celtic St. Mirren
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Celtic 0.00
St. Mirren 0.02
Celtic
St. Mirren
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STM had peak pressure around 56'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
CEL Pressure STM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STM reached the top pressure at 56' (70.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 53 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celtic CEL Home
53 matches
St. Mirren STM Away
Match Record
44
Wins
3
6
Draws
6
3
Losses
44
Goals
138
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
138
+110
Goal Difference
-110
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:06:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
V. Sinisalo
Finland
12 V. Sinisalo
A. Ralston
Scotland
56 A. Ralston
A. Trusty
United States
6 A. Trusty
L. Scales
Republic of Ireland
5 L. Scales
K. Tierney
Scotland
63 K. Tierney
C. McGregor
Substitution
Scotland
42 C. McGregor
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
Substitution
England
21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
H. Yang
South Korea
13 H. Yang
B. Nygren
Substitution
Sweden
8 B. Nygren
D. Maeda
Japan
38 D. Maeda
T. Čvančara
Substitution
Czech Republic
11 T. Čvančara
S. George
Substitution
England
1 S. George
M. Freckleton
England
21 M. Freckleton
A. Gogić
Cyprus
13 A. Gogić
L. Donnelly
Northern Ireland
4 L. Donnelly
D. John
Substitution
Wales
24 D. John
A. Campbell
Scotland
16 A. Campbell
J. Devaney
England
8 J. Devaney
M. O'Hara
Substitution
Scotland
6 M. O'Hara
K. Phillips
Republic of Ireland
88 K. Phillips
M. Mandron
Substitution
France
9 M. Mandron
J. Ayunga
Substitution
Kenya
11 J. Ayunga

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Celtic Park
Capacity
60411
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Scott Robert Anderson
Duncan Nicolson
Daniel Graves
Frank Connor

Statistics

Possession
CEL
56%
STM
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 1
62 Dangerous attacks 38
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

22 Throwins 11
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
16 Dribble Attempts 9
6 Successful Dribbles 4
4 Goal Kicks 6
10 Successful Headers 6
84 Ball Safe 74
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

108 Attacks 66
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

5 Key Passes 4
600 Passes 462
91 Successful Passes Percentage 86
59 Long Passes 69
544 Successful Passes 399
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
38 Successful Long Passes 36

Defensive

1 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 5
13 Tackles 20

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
21 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

2 Offsides 5
12 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales Defender
6
Auston Trusty
Auston Trusty Defender
56
Anthony Ralston
Anthony Ralston Defender
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
27
Arne Engels
Arne Engels
Midfielder63'
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
21
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Midfielder
14
Luke McCowan
Luke McCowan
Midfielder73'
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Midfielder
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor Midfielder
41
Reo Hatate
Reo Hatate
Midfielder73'
11
Tomas Cvancara
Tomas Cvancara Attacker
17
Kelechi Iheanacho
Kelechi Iheanacho
Attacker62'
Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

1
Shamal George
Shamal George Goalkeeper
31
Ryan Mullen
Ryan Mullen
Goalkeeper32'
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly Defender
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Defender
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Defender
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson
Defender73'
8
J. Devaney
J. Devaney Midfielder
16
A. Campbell
A. Campbell Midfielder
24
Declan John
Declan John Midfielder
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu
Midfielder81'
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
10
Conor McMenamin
Conor McMenamin
Attacker80'
11
Jonah Ayunga
Jonah Ayunga Attacker
20
J. Young
J. Young
Attacker73'
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
83'
Event
Alex Gogic
Persistent fouling / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Roland Idowu → Declan John
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Conor McMenamin → Mikael Mandron
8th Substitution
Event
Reo Hatate → Callum McGregor
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Luke McCowan → Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
5th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Jayden Richardson → Mark O'Hara
6th Substitution
73'
Event
J. Young → Jonah Ayunga
7th Substitution
Event
Arne Engels → Benjamin Nygren
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho → Tomas Cvancara
2nd Substitution
62'
50'
Event
Liam Donnelly
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Ryan Mullen → Shamal George
1st Substitution
Event
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

Match Commentary

83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexander Gogic from St Mirren receives a yellow card in the 83rd minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Roland Idowu is substituted for St Mirren in the 81st minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Conor McMenamin is substituted for St Mirren in the 80th minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Reo Hatate is substituted for Celtic in the 73rd minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Jayden Richardson is substituted for St Mirren in the 73rd minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Luke McCowan is substituted for Celtic in the 73rd minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Jake Young is substituted for St Mirren in the 73rd minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Arne Engels is substituted for Celtic in the 63rd minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
Kelechi Iheanacho substituted for Celtic in the 62nd minute.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Donnelly of St Mirren receives a yellow card in the 50th minute.
32
Substitution Substitution
Ryan Mullen is substituted for St Mirren in the 32nd minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Celtic exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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