Carrarese vs Spezia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio dei Marmi Mon, 6 Apr - 5:30 PM
Serie B
Carrarese CAR
3 Winner 1
Spezia SPE
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Nicolò Calabrese - 17'
Mattia Finotto - 23'
Fabio Abiuso - 63'
Goal
|
Goal
Mattia Valoti - 49'
Niccolò Belloni 90' Red Card
|
Red Card Mattia Valoti 85'
Red Card Emanuele Adamo 90'
Red Card Giovanni Bonfanti 90+2'

CONTEXT

The match has officially concluded with Carrarese securing a 3-1 victory over Spezia, comfortably building on their 2-0 halftime lead. Pre-match market probabilities favored the home side at 40.8%, compared to a 31% chance of a draw and 28.2% for an away win. The final outcome aligned with this pre-match market, confirming Carrarese as the stronger team, though it represented a significant deviation level of 59.2% in their favor. Ball possession was perfectly balanced throughout the contest, with both Carrarese and Spezia holding exactly 50% of the ball. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to measure whether the scoreline directly matched underlying chance creation, the overarching efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections. The defining characteristic of this fixture was a chaotic disciplinary record that severely impacted the flow of play. The match featured a staggering four sendings-off; Carrarese received one red card, while Spezia was heavily penalized with three. This severe lack of discipline caused major red card distortion during the second half, effectively destroying any chance of an away comeback and cementing Carrarese's dominant victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Carrarese showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Galipò
S. Galipò
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
G. Manganiello
G. Manganiello
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
F. Fontani
F. Fontani
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
F. Cortese
F. Cortese
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
VS
Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Sampdoria Rank: 51 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 54 D
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Mantova Rank: 52 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: 55 L
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Modena Rank: 57 L
Monza Rank: 65 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 D
Reggiana Rank: 46 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Carrarese
40.78%
Draw
31.01%
Away Spezia
28.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.64
50.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Carrarese
Spezia
Power Score
55.64
50.57
League Position
9
19
Global Rank
604
734

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Spezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.10
36.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.80
27.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Carrarese -0.96 Efficiency Index
vs
Spezia +0.96 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Spezia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Carrarese Spezia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Carrarese Spezia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Spezia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Carrarese
vs
Spezia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Carrarese Spezia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Carrarese 0.39
Spezia 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Carrarese Spezia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Carrarese 0.02
Spezia 0.10
Carrarese
Spezia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home
3 matches
Spezia SPE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
4
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
M. Bleve
Italy
1 M. Bleve
N. Calabrese
Italy
37 N. Calabrese
F. Oliana
Italy
6 F. Oliana
F. Ruggeri
Italy
26 F. Ruggeri
S. Zanon
Substitution
Italy
72 S. Zanon
G. Parlanti
Italy
77 G. Parlanti
E. Zuelli
Italy
17 E. Zuelli
L. Hasa
Substitution
Italy
70 L. Hasa
J. Rouhi
Substitution
Sweden
73 J. Rouhi
F. Abiuso
Substitution
Italy
9 F. Abiuso
M. Finotto
Substitution
Italy
32 M. Finotto
B. Radunović
Serbia
22 B. Radunović
G. Bonfanti
Italy
94 G. Bonfanti
P. Hristov
Bulgaria
55 P. Hristov
A. Matějů
Substitution
Czech Republic
37 A. Matějů
G. Aurelio
Substitution
Italy
31 G. Aurelio
F. Bandinelli
Substitution
Italy
25 F. Bandinelli
A. Romano
Substitution
Switzerland
60 A. Romano
L. Vignali
Substitution
Italy
32 L. Vignali
L. Sernicola
Italy
17 L. Sernicola
M. Valoti
Italy
5 M. Valoti
G. Artistico
Italy
9 G. Artistico

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio dei Marmi
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Simone Galipò
Gianluca Manganiello
Federico Fontani
Francesco Cortese

Statistics

Possession
CAR
47%
SPE
53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 16
31 Dangerous attacks 48
50 Possession 50
2 Corners 5
22 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 7
13 Throwins 22
11 Dribble Attempts 17
3 Successful Dribbles 13
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 76
3 Assists 1
1 Penalties 0
81 Ball Safe 54
10 Goal Attempts 10
2 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

67 Attacks 126
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 79
55 Long Passes 62
11 Key Passes 12
350 Passes 339
278 Successful Passes 269
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
27 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

3 Saves 1
4 Interceptions 7
5 Tackles 14
51 Duels Won 59

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 30
9 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 23
5 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
6
Filippo Oliana
Filippo Oliana Defender
26
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri Defender
37
Nicolò Calabrese
Nicolò Calabrese Defender
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli Midfielder
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Midfielder
18
Nicolás Schiavi
Nicolás Schiavi
Midfielder79'
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Midfielder
13
Devid Eugene Bouah
Devid Eugene Bouah
Midfielder85'
73
Jonas Rouhi
Jonas Rouhi Midfielder
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni
Midfielder70'
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso Attacker
21
Tommaso Rubino
Tommaso Rubino
Attacker85'
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto Attacker
28
Filippo Distefano
Filippo Distefano
Attacker70'
Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

22
Boris Radunović
Boris Radunović Goalkeeper
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Defender
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula
Attacker46'
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov Defender
94
Giovanni Bonfanti
Giovanni Bonfanti Defender
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola Midfielder
25
Filippo Bandinelli
Filippo Bandinelli Midfielder
70
Emanuele Adamo
Emanuele Adamo
Midfielder70'
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
4
Marco Ruggero
Marco Ruggero
Defender79'
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali Midfielder
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto
Midfielder70'
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Midfielder
6
Alessandro Bellemo
Alessandro Bellemo
Midfielder85'
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti Attacker
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Christian Comotto
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Giovanni Bonfanti
Violent conduct / 4th Redcard
90+1'
Event
Giovanni Bonfanti
Card adjusted
Event
Niccolò Belloni
Violent conduct / 3rd Redcard
90'
90'
Event
Emanuele Adamo
Violent conduct / 2nd Redcard
Event
Tommaso Rubino → Fabio Abiuso
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah → Simone Zanon
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Mattia Valoti
Foul / 1st Redcard
85'
Event
Alessandro Bellemo → Alessandro Romano
8th Substitution
Event
Nicolás Schiavi → Luis Hasa
7th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Marco Ruggero → Giuseppe Aurelio
6th Substitution
Event
Niccolò Belloni → Jonas Rouhi
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Filippo Distefano → Mattia Finotto
5th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Christian Comotto → Luca Vignali
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Emanuele Adamo → Filippo Bandinelli
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Luca Vignali
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Fabio Abiuso
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
63'
Event
Mattia Finotto
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
49'
Event
Mattia Valoti
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Gianluca Lapadula → Ales Mateju
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Ales Mateju
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Fabio Abiuso
OffTarget
27'
Event
Mattia Finotto
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Nicolò Calabrese
Header / 1st Goal
17'
16'
Event
Giovanni Bonfanti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Carrarese exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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