Cagliari vs Como Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Sardegna Arena Sat, 7 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie A
Cagliari CAG
1 Winner 2
Como COM
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Sebastiano Esposito - 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Martin Baturina - 14'
Lucas Da Cunha  - 76'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Cagliari 1–1 Como. The match ended in a draw. Como showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Como showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Marinelli
L. Marinelli
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Moro
D. Moro
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Ayroldi
G. Ayroldi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Biffi
S. Biffi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Cagliari F. Pisacane
F. Pisacane
VS
Como F. Fàbregas i Soler
F. Fàbregas i Soler
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce Rank: L
Roma Rank: L
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Fiorentina Rank: W
Juventus Rank: W
Genoa Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: L
Atalanta Rank: D
Torino Rank: W
Lazio Rank: W
AC Milan Rank: L
Bologna Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 5 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cagliari
14.56%
Draw
23.22%
Away Como
62.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.71
60.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cagliari
Como
Power Score
35.71
60.71
League Position
13
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cagliari — Opponent-weighted form score
Como — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cagliari Como

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cagliari

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Como

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cagliari ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.26
16.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.84
23.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cagliari +0.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Como -0.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cagliari
Como
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cagliari ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cagliari Como
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cagliari Como
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cagliari
Como
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cagliari CAG Home
3 matches
Como COM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:04:00+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Sardegna Arena
Capacity
16416
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Livio Marinelli
Davide Moro
Giovanni Ayroldi
Simone Biffi

Statistics

Possession
CAG
45%
COM
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 3
40 Dangerous attacks 32
43 Possession 57
2 Corners 3
18 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 17
26 Dribble Attempts 8
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
14 Successful Dribbles 4
9 Successful Headers 21
109 Ball Safe 144
6 Goal Kicks 1
2 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 2
1 Assists 1

Attacking

89 Attacks 98

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
364 Passes 492
77 Successful Passes Percentage 83
282 Successful Passes 407
54 Long Passes 54
21 Successful Long Passes 25
7 Key Passes 4

Defensive

13 Interceptions 11
17 Tackles 28
0 Saves 2
57 Duels Won 65

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

7 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 18

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alberto Dossena
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Leonardo Pavoletti → Riyad Idrissi
10th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Jacobo Ramón
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Diego Carlos → Nico Paz
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Sergi Roberto → Martin Baturina
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Álex Valle → Alberto Moreno
9th Substitution
Event
Riyad Idrissi → Juan Rodríguez
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Semih Kılıçsoy → Joseph Liteta
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Yael Trepy → Sebastiano Esposito
6th Substitution
78'
76'
Event
Lucas Da Cunha 
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Gabriele Zappa → Zé Pedro
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Sebastiano Esposito
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Marco Palestra
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
65'
Event
5th Yellowcard
65'
62'
Event
Álvaro Morata → Anastasios Douvikas 
2nd Substitution
Event
Sebastiano Esposito
Header / 2nd Goal
56'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Mërgim Vojvoda → Máximo Perrone
1st Substitution
14'
Event
Martin Baturina
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Leonardo Pavoletti from Cagliari committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Sergi Roberto committed a foul against Como.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Dossena of Cagliari has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Álvaro Morata - Como - earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Fouled by Michel Adopo of Cagliari.
90
Update Update
Jean Butez from Como has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Yael Trepy from Cagliari fired a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Ibrahim Sulemana.
90
Update Update
Ibrahim Sulemana from Cagliari has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Álvaro Morata from Como takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal following a free kick.
90
Update Update
Jean Butez from Como has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Cagliari 1, Como 2.
89
Update Update
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Jesús Rodríguez - Como - earned a free kick in an offensive position.
89
Update Update
Cagliari has been called for offside. Yael Trepy is positioned ahead of the last defender.
88
Corner Corner
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari had a great opportunity but headed the ball over the goal and to the right. The chance came after a corner, with Michel Adopo providing the cross.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Leonardo Pavoletti comes on to replace Riyad Idrissi due to an injury.
87
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
87
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Riyad Idrissi from Cagliari.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacobo Ramón - Como - has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Cagliari, following a play that resulted in a save by Jean Butez.
83
Update Update
Riyad Idrissi from Cagliari has committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Fouled by Jacobo Ramón - Como. nnRephrased: Jacobo Ramón from Como committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Jacobo Ramón - Como - earned a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Gabriele Zappa of Cagliari attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Yael Trepy, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
82
Update Update
Semih Kiliçsoy from Cagliari committed a foul.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt was thwarted. Semih Kiliçsoy from Cagliari took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Marco Palestra.
81
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Cagliari after Álex Valle allowed the ball to go out.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Diego Carlos is coming on to replace Nico Paz.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Sergi Roberto comes on to replace Martin Baturina.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Álex Valle replaces Alberto Moreno.
80
Update Update
Yael Trepy from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Mërgim Vojvoda from Como committed a foul.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Riyad Idrissi comes on to replace Juan Rodríguez.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Yael Trepy replaces Sebastiano Esposito.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Semih Kiliçsoy comes on to replace Joseph Liteta.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cagliari 1, Como 2. Lucas da Cunha scores for Como with a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, finding the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Ignace Van der Brempt.
75
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Nico Paz from Como attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The assist came from Álvaro Morata, who delivered a precise cross.
74
Update Update
Cagliari's Michel Adopo committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari earned a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Como has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Jacobo Ramón from Como committed a foul.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Gabriele Zappa comes on to replace Zé Pedro.
72
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Como, following a foul by Juan Rodríguez.
71
Update Update
Jacobo Ramón from Como committed a foul.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari has been shown a yellow card.
68
Update Update
Ibrahim Sulemana is playing against Cagliari.
68
Update Update
Lucas da Cunha from Como has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Offside call against Como. Mërgim Vojvoda is caught in an offside position.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marco Palestra of Cagliari has been shown a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Marco Palestra from Cagliari has fallen to the ground, but the referee believes he is exaggerating and has called it a dive.
64
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Álvaro Morata takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard area, but it's blocked.
64
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Como, after Juan Rodríguez allowed it to go out of play.
63
Update Update
Nico Paz from Como was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
63
Update Update
Nico Paz from Como was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
62
Update Update
Ignace Van der Brempt from Como has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Álvaro Morata comes on to replace Tasos Douvikas.
62
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari committed a foul.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after Juan Rodríguez allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
59
Update Update
Offside call against Como. Martin Baturina has been flagged for being in an offside position.
59
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nico Paz from Como takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
56
Corner Corner
Goal! It's now Cagliari 1, Como 1. Sebastiano Esposito scores for Cagliari with a header from the center of the penalty area, sending the ball into the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Adam Obert.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Cagliari 1, Como 1. Sebastiano Esposito scores for Cagliari with a header from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the top left corner. The assist came from Adam Obert.
53
Update Update
Zé Pedro from Cagliari earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
53
Update Update
Fouled by Jesús Rodríguez - Como. nnRephrased: Jesús Rodríguez from Como committed a foul.
52
Update Update
Lucas da Cunha from Como committed a foul.
52
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari earned a free kick while defending.
51
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jesús Rodríguez from Como attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went over the goal and to the right.
49
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
49
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Ibrahim Sulemana from Cagliari.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Ignace Van der Brempt from Como has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Ibrahim Sulemana committed a foul against Cagliari.
45
Update Update
Tasos Douvikas from Como has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at Cagliari 0, Como 1.
45
Update Update
Marco Palestra from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Marc Oliver Kempf from Como committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Cagliari 0, Como 1.
44
Update Update
Marco Palestra of Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Alberto Moreno committed a foul against Como.
43
Update Update
Tasos Douvikas from Como commits a handball offense.
42
Update Update
Ignace Van der Brempt from Como committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Ignace Van der Brempt from Como committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Mërgim Vojvoda from Como has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
41
Update Update
Ibrahim Sulemana commits a foul on a Cagliari player.
38
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box but failed to find the target.
36
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Mërgim Vojvoda replaces Máximo Perrone due to an injury.
35
Update Update
Adam Obert from Cagliari commits a handball foul.
33
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
32
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Máximo Perrone from Como.
31
Update Update
Cagliari is flagged for offside. Michael Folorunsho has been caught in an offside position.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Sebastiano Esposito.
30
Update Update
Marco Palestra from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Alberto Moreno committed a foul against Como.
29
Update Update
Ignace Van der Brempt from Como has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Adam Obert from Cagliari committed a foul.
28
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
27
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Máximo Perrone from Como.
27
Update Update
Cagliari is called for offside. Alberto Dossena has been caught in an offside position.
26
Update Update
Ibrahim Sulemana from Cagliari earned a free kick in an offensive position.
26
Update Update
Fouled by Máximo Perrone from Como.
25
Update Update
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari earned a free kick in an attacking position.
25
Update Update
Tasos Douvikas from Como committed a foul.
24
Update Update
Offside call against Como. Tasos Douvikas has been flagged for being in an offside position.
24
Update Update
Jesús Rodríguez - Como - earned a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Cagliari is flagged for offside. Michael Folorunsho has been caught in an offside position.
18
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Michel Adopo from Cagliari takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped in the bottom left corner by Jean Butez of Como, with Ibrahim Sulemana providing the assist.
18
Update Update
Martin Baturina committed a foul against Como.
18
Update Update
Juan Rodríguez from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Alberto Moreno committed a foul against Como.
17
Update Update
Michel Adopo from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cagliari 0, Como 1. Martin Baturina from Como scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner.
14
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Lucas da Cunha from Como takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
12
Update Update
Cagliari has been called for offside. Michael Folorunsho is positioned beyond the last defender.
12
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari earned a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas da Cunha from Como.
11
Update Update
Cagliari is flagged for offside. Michael Folorunsho has been caught in an offside position.
6
Update Update
Marco Palestra from Cagliari earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
6
Update Update
Fouled by Jesús Rodríguez - Como. nnRephrased: Jesús Rodríguez from Como committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Michel Adopo from Cagliari earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
5
Update Update
Máximo Perrone from Como committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Cagliari has been flagged for offside. Michael Folorunsho is caught in an offside position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Como exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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