Burgos vs Sporting Gijón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío Sat, 11 Apr - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Burgos BUR
1 Winner 0
Sporting Gijón SPO
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:15 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Fer Niño - 90+1'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Burgos and Sporting Gijón is finished, ending 1-0 to the home side. After a goalless first half, Burgos secured the only goal of the game in the second period to claim all three points. Burgos entered as the stronger team and the clear pre-match favorite, with expectations heavily tilted in their favor. The result showed only minimal deviation from those projections and came with a 4.8 percent variance centered on the home side. Possession was closely contested throughout, finishing 48 percent for Burgos and 52 percent for Sporting Gijón, while no xG data was recorded. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match projection. No red cards were shown to either team, leaving the result to be decided purely by on-field performance without major disciplinary impact.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Burgos showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Estela Bravo
F. Estela Bravo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
A. Ramo Andrés
A. Ramo Andrés
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
C. Muñiz Muñoz
C. Muñiz Muñoz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
B. García Valín
B. García Valín
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
VS
Sporting Gijón B. Jiménez Sáez
B. Jiménez Sáez
1.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.54
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Albacete Rank: W
Ceuta Rank: D
Real Valladolid Rank: W
Córdoba Rank: W
SD Eibar Rank: D
Mirandés Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad II Rank: W
Racing Santander Rank: L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: D
Las Palmas Rank: L
Castellón Rank: W
FC Andorra Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burgos
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Away Sporting Gijón
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.5
25.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burgos
Sporting Gijón
Power Score
32.5
25.53
League Position
5
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Gijón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burgos Sporting Gijón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Gijón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Burgos ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Gijón
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.00
27.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.40
25.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Burgos -0.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Gijón +0.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Sporting Gijón
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burgos ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Gijón
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Burgos Sporting Gijón
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Burgos Sporting Gijón
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Sporting Gijón
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Burgos
vs
Sporting Gijón
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Burgos Sporting Gijón
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Burgos 0.25
Sporting Gijón 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Burgos Sporting Gijón
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Burgos 0.00
Sporting Gijón 0.03
Burgos
Sporting Gijón
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SPO had peak pressure around 68'.
  • SPO started the game with stronger pressure.
BUR Pressure SPO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SPO reached the top pressure at 68' (78.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burgos BUR Home
9 matches
Sporting Gijón SPO Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
5
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:08:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Cantero Armendáriz
Spain
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
A. Lizancos Saldaña
Spain
2 A. Lizancos Saldaña
O. Luengo Redondo
Substitution
Spain
3 O. Luengo Redondo
G. Sierra Pérez
Spain
8 G. Sierra Pérez
F. Miguel
France
12 F. Miguel
I. Ruiz
Spain
23 I. Ruiz
M. Atienza Villa
Spain
5 M. Atienza Villa
D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
Substitution
Spain
14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
F. Sánchez Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez
I. Córdoba Kerejeta
Substitution
Spain
21 I. Córdoba Kerejeta
F. Niño Rodriguez
Spain
9 F. Niño Rodriguez
O. Yáñez Alabart
Spain
1 O. Yáñez Alabart
B. Oliván Herrero
Spain
12 B. Oliván Herrero
D. Sánchez Pérez
Spain
5 D. Sánchez Pérez
P. Vázquez Pérez
Spain
15 P. Vázquez Pérez
G. Rosas Alonso
Spain
2 G. Rosas Alonso
A. Corredera Alardi
Spain
14 A. Corredera Alardi
J. Smith
Substitution
British Virgin Islands
24 J. Smith
G. Campos Ansó Fernández
Substitution
Spain
7 G. Campos Ansó Fernández
C. Gelabert Pina
Spain
10 C. Gelabert Pina
J. Dubasin
Substitution
Belgium
17 J. Dubasin
J. Otero Tovar
Colombia
19 J. Otero Tovar

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Capacity
12194
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Fernando Estela Bravo
A. Ramo Andrés
Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
Brais García Valín

Statistics

Possession
BUR
48%
SPO
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 7
40 Dangerous attacks 65
48 Possession 52
2 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

59 Ball Safe 60
20 Dribble Attempts 14
11 Successful Dribbles 6
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
26 Throwins 21
9 Goal Kicks 5
0 Injuries 2
4 Substitutions 3
6 Goal Attempts 8
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0

Attacking

101 Attacks 114
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

349 Successful Passes 396
70 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
5 Key Passes 9
39 Successful Long Passes 27
427 Passes 468
82 Successful Passes Percentage 85
56 Long Passes 53

Defensive

16 Tackles 21
3 Interceptions 15
0 Saves 3

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 16
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
2
Álex Lizancos
Álex Lizancos Defender
3
Oier Luengo
Oier Luengo Defender
6
Sergio González
Sergio González
Defender75'
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Defender
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Defender
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza Midfielder
14
David González
David González Midfielder
11
Víctor Mollejo
Víctor Mollejo
Attacker74'
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Midfielder
20
Mario González
Mario González
Attacker86'
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder
10
Kévin Appin
Kévin Appin
Midfielder60'
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Midfielder
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

1
Rubén Yáñez
Rubén Yáñez Goalkeeper
2
Guille Rosas
Guille Rosas Defender
5
Diego Sánchez
Diego Sánchez Defender
12
Brian Oliván
Brian Oliván Defender
15
Pablo Vázquez
Pablo Vázquez Defender
7
Gaspar Campos
Gaspar Campos Midfielder
3
Pablo García
Pablo García
Defender82'
10
César Gelabert
César Gelabert Midfielder
14
Àlex Corredera
Àlex Corredera Midfielder
17
Jonathan Dubasin
Jonathan Dubasin Midfielder
36
Manu Rodríguez
Manu Rodríguez
Midfielder74'
24
Justin Smith
Justin Smith Midfielder
47
Miguel Conde
Miguel Conde
Attacker82'
19
Juan Otero
Juan Otero Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fer Niño
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
90+1'
88'
Event
Brian Oliván
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Mario González → Curro Sánchez
7th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
7th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Manu Rodríguez
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Miguel Conde → Justin Smith
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Pablo García → Gaspar Campos
6th Substitution
Event
Sergio González → Oier Luengo
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Víctor Mollejo → David González
2nd Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Manu Rodríguez → Jonathan Dubasin
3rd Substitution
Event
Fer Niño
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Kévin Appin → Iñigo Córdoba
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Oier Luengo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Grego Sierra
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
37'
24'
Event
Justin Smith
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Burgos exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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