Burgos vs Mirandés Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Sat, 7 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga 2
Burgos
BUR
2
0
0
Mirandés
MIR
Full Time
Sat, 7 Mar
5:30 PM
David González - 21'
Curro Sánchez - 66'
|
|
Fernando Medrano 90+5'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Burgos 1–0 Mirandés. The result saw Burgos take the points. Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Tejero García
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
6.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
J. Sánchez Villalobos
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
6.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
?. Munuera Montero
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
6.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
I. de Santisteban Adame
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
6.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.06
L. Ramis Monfort
VS
A. Muneta Beldarrain
1.62
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.78
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés
Rank:
W
Málaga
Rank:
L
Huesca
Rank:
W
SD Eibar
Rank:
W
Córdoba
Rank:
L
Real Zaragoza
Rank:
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca
Rank:
W
Las Palmas
Rank:
D
Racing Santander
Rank:
L
Málaga
Rank:
W
Sporting Gijón
Rank:
L
FC Andorra
Rank:
L
3
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 5
5
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Burgos
48.68%
Draw
29.51%
Mirandés
21.8%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.87
27.59
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burgos
Mirandés
Power Score
52.87
27.59
League Position
6
22
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Burgos
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Mirandés
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Burgos Mirandés
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Burgos
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Mirandés
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Burgos
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Mirandés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.02
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Burgos
+0.24
Efficiency Index
vs
Mirandés
-0.24
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Mirandés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Burgos
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Mirandés
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Burgos
Mirandés
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Burgos
Mirandés
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Mirandés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Burgos
BUR
Home
9
matches
Mirandés
MIR
Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
9
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:12:46+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Capacity
12194
Attendance
10262
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Roberto Tejero García
José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos
Ángel Munuera Montero
Ignacio de Santisteban Adame
Statistics
Possession
BUR
48%
MIR
52%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
2
Big Chances Created
0
8
Shots
6
28
Dangerous attacks
56
49
Possession
51
1
Corners
6
18
Free kicks
9
2
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
31
Successful Dribbles Percentage
41
20
Throwins
21
13
Dribble Attempts
27
4
Successful Dribbles
11
6
Goal Kicks
11
5
Goal Attempts
2
52
Ball Safe
45
1
Assists
0
5
Substitutions
3
Attacking
84
Attacks
121
1
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
313
Successful Passes
319
49
Successful Long Passes Percentage
59
59
Long Passes
63
29
Successful Long Passes
37
389
Passes
400
80
Successful Passes Percentage
80
9
Key Passes
9
Defensive
6
Saves
2
19
Tackles
14
13
Interceptions
11
Build-up
11
Total Crosses
27
2
Accurate Crosses
8
Discipline
8
Fouls
13
1
Offsides
0
Events
2ND-HALF
90+5'
Fernando Medrano
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Marcelo Expósito → David González
7th Substitution
90+1'
Víctor Mollejo → Miguel Atienza
8th Substitution
90+1'
Grego Sierra
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
88'
88'
Salim El Jebari
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Pablo Pérez
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Pablo Galdames → Curro Sánchez
6th Substitution
83'
Fermín García → Kévin Appin
5th Substitution
73'
Fer Niño → Iñigo Córdoba
4th Substitution
72'
Kévin Appin
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
72'
71'
Diego Sia → Carlos Fernández
3rd Substitution
Curro Sánchez
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
66'
63'
Siren Diao → Ali Houary
1st Substitution
63'
Salim El Jebari → Nikola Maras
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Fernando Medrano
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
David González
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
21'
20'
Carlos Fernández
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Burgos exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.