Bologna vs Hellas Verona Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara Sun, 8 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie A
Bologna BOL
1 Winner 2
Hellas Verona VER
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM
Jonathan Rowe - 49'
Goal
|
Goal
Martin Frese - 53'
Kieron Bowie - 57'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Bologna 1–2 Hellas Verona. The result saw Hellas Verona take the points. Hellas Verona showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 68%–32%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hellas Verona showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Massa
D. Massa
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Giuseppe Mucera
Giuseppe Mucera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
D. Bindoni
D. Bindoni
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
A. Tegoni
A. Tegoni
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Bologna V. Italiano
V. Italiano
VS
Hellas Verona P. Sammarco
P. Sammarco
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.58
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Como Rank: D
Atalanta Rank: L
Inter Rank: L
Sassuolo Rank: D
Juventus Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: L
Parma Rank: L
Pisa Rank: D
Cagliari Rank: L
Udinese Rank: L
Cremonese Rank: D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 6 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bologna
59.08%
Draw
25.12%
Away Hellas Verona
15.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.43
21.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bologna
Hellas Verona
Power Score
46.43
21.43
League Position
8
19
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bologna — Opponent-weighted form score
Hellas Verona — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bologna Hellas Verona

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bologna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hellas Verona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bologna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hellas Verona
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.18
51.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
51.56
31.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bologna -2.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Hellas Verona +2.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bologna
Hellas Verona
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bologna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hellas Verona
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bologna Hellas Verona
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bologna Hellas Verona
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bologna
Hellas Verona
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bologna BOL Home
11 matches
Hellas Verona VER Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
5
Goals
16
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
16
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:06:55+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Capacity
36532
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Massa
Giuseppe Mucera
Daniele Bindoni
Alberto Tegoni

Statistics

Possession
BOL
63%
VER
37%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 5
44 Dangerous attacks 30
68 Possession 32
5 Corners 3
20 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Attempts 8
3 Injuries 0
24 Throwins 18
8 Goal Kicks 16
24 Successful Headers 17
61 Ball Safe 43
24 Dribble Attempts 10
7 Successful Dribbles 8
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 1
6 Substitutions 4

Attacking

120 Attacks 81
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

78 Long Passes 55
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 15
393 Successful Passes 136
44 Successful Long Passes 8
82 Successful Passes Percentage 62
480 Passes 221
10 Key Passes 11

Defensive

2 Saves 1
10 Interceptions 13
8 Tackles 28

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 7
17 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

5 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Moatasem Al-Musrati → Gift Orban
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Amin Sarr
Goal disallowed
Event
Tommaso Pobega → Martin Vitík
8th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Amin Sarr → Kieron Bowie
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Nicolás Valentini → Daniel Oyegoke
7th Substitution
Event
Benja Domínguez → Jonathan Rowe
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Charalampos Lykogiannis → Nadir Zortea
5th Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Tomas Suslov → Abdou Harroui
3rd Substitution
Event
Federico Bernardeschi → Riccardo Orsolini
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Simon Sohm → Lewis Ferguson
2nd Substitution
66'
57'
Event
Kieron Bowie
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
53'
Event
Martin Frese
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Jonathan Rowe
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Abdou Harroui
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Lewis Ferguson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
40'
16'
Event
Kieron Bowie
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Amin Sarr from Verona committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Victor Nelsson from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Jens Odgaard from Bologna committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Federico Bernardeschi from Bologna takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly misses the target following a free kick.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Verona. Amin Sarr has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Fouled by Martin Frese from Verona.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Santiago Castro from Bologna attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Charalampos Lykogiannis, who delivered a cross.
90
Update Update
João Mário from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Santiago Castro from Bologna attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box but failed to convert. The assist came from Federico Bernardeschi during a quick counterattack.
90
Update Update
Jens Odgaard from Bologna committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Federico Bernardeschi from Bologna fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Al Musrati comes on to replace Gift Orban.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Bologna 1, Verona 2.
90
Update Update
Lorenzo Montipò from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed for Bologna, score remains 1-2 in favor of Verona.
86
Update Update
GOAL DISALLOWED AFTER VAR CHECK: Amin Sarr from Verona finds the back of the net, but the goal is canceled following a VAR review.
85
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Gift Orban from Verona takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, the attempt is thwarted by Bologna's goalkeeper, Lukasz Skorupski, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro.
85
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Bologna 1, Verona 3. Amin Sarr scores for Verona with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box into the center of the goal. The assist came from Gift Orban after a swift counterattack.
85
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini committed a foul against a player from Verona.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Tommaso Pobega replaces Martin Vitík due to an injury.
83
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Verona after Nikola Moro allowed the ball to go out.
83
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tomás Suslov from Verona takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
82
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Amin Sarr replaces Kieron Bowie.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Nicolás Valentini replaces Daniel Oyegoke due to an injury.
81
Update Update
Match interruption - Bologna.
80
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Andrias Edmundsson from Verona took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly went wide to the left.
80
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Benja Domínguez from Bologna takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Simon Sohm.
79
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Federico Bernardeschi from Bologna fires a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
79
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Benja Domínguez from Bologna attempts a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after a deflection off Lorenzo Montipò.
78
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Jens Odgaard from Bologna takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it’s expertly saved in the bottom right corner.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Benja Domínguez is coming on to replace Jonathan Rowe.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Charalampos Lykogiannis replaces Nadir Zortea.
75
Update Update
Jhon Lucumí from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona committed a foul.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Tomás Suslov comes on to replace Abdou Harroui.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after a deflection off Andrias Edmundsson.
72
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona.
72
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
71
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Kieron Bowie from Verona took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Roberto Gagliardini.
70
Update Update
Daniel Oyegoke from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
João Mário of Bologna earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
69
Update Update
Daniel Oyegoke from Verona committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Andrias Edmundsson from Verona committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Santiago Castro from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
67
Update Update
Offside call against Verona. Gift Orban has been caught offside.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Federico Bernardeschi comes on to replace Riccardo Orsolini.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Simon Sohm comes on to replace Lewis Ferguson.
63
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Gift Orban from Verona attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Abdou Harroui.
58
Update Update
João Mário from Bologna earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
58
Update Update
João Mário from Bologna earned a free kick in the defensive area.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bologna 1, Verona 2. Kieron Bowie scores for Verona with a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the back of the net. The assist came from Gift Orban after a quick counterattack.
56
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
56
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
55
Update Update
Lewis Ferguson from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona committed a foul.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's Bologna 1, Verona 1. Martin Frese from Verona fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area into the bottom right corner.
52
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
51
Update Update
Jens Odgaard from Bologna committed a foul.
51
Update Update
Andrias Edmundsson from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Jhon Lucumí from Bologna.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bologna takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Verona. Jonathan Rowe scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it in the left corner of the net. The assist comes from Nadir Zortea.
48
Update Update
Jens Odgaard from Bologna was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
48
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona committed a foul.
46
Corner Corner
Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area following a corner kick, but the ball strikes the right post.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after a play that resulted in Victor Nelsson giving up possession.
45
Update Update
Victor Nelsson committed a foul against a player from Verona.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after a deflection off Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro.
45
Update Update
Lewis Ferguson from Bologna earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after a deflection off Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Bologna and Verona.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jens Odgaard from Bologna took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left.
45
Update Update
A header from Santiago Castro of Bologna from close range is denied. The assist came from Nikola Moro, who delivered a cross into the box.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Kieron Bowie from Verona attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the left.
42
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Abdou Harroui from Verona committed a foul.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdou Harroui of Verona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after João Mário allowed the ball to go out.
40
Update Update
Lewis Ferguson from Bologna committed a foul.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewis Ferguson from Bologna has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
40
Update Update
Domagoj Bradaric from Verona was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
39
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jonathan Rowe from Bologna takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Nikola Moro.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after a play that resulted in Domagoj Bradaric giving it away.
39
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Martin Vitík from Bologna takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
38
Update Update
Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna earned a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Abdou Harroui from Verona committed a foul.
38
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Nadir Zortea from Bologna attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to hit the target. The assist came from Riccardo Orsolini.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nikola Moro from Bologna took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick.
36
Update Update
Daniel Oyegoke from Verona committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
32
Update Update
Jens Odgaard from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
32
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona committed a foul.
31
Corner Corner
Opportunity goes begging! Victor Nelsson from Verona attempts a header from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the target. The cross was delivered by Martin Frese following a corner kick.
30
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Verona after Jhon Lucumí allowed the ball to go out.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
29
Update Update
Match interruption - Bologna.
29
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Kieron Bowie of Verona attempted a left-footed shot from close range but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Gift Orban, who delivered a cross.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gift Orban from Verona takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Abdou Harroui, who delivered a cross.
27
Update Update
Offside call against Verona. Gift Orban is caught in an offside position.
25
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Gift Orban from Verona takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Lukasz Skorupski of Bologna makes a save to his left. The assist came from Abdou Harroui.
25
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna attempts a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Nikola Moro.
23
Update Update
Santiago Castro from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Abdou Harroui from Verona committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Offside call against Bologna. Santiago Castro is caught in an offside position.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kieron Bowie from Verona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
16
Update Update
Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna earned a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Kieron Bowie from Verona committed a foul.
15
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Santiago Castro from Bologna attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box but failed to convert. The assist came from Jonathan Rowe.
13
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Victor Nelsson committed a foul against Verona.
11
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Santiago Castro from Bologna took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that was just off target. The attempt was set up by Jens Odgaard during a quick counterattack.
10
Update Update
Offside call against Verona. Gift Orban has been caught in an offside position.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Gift Orban from Verona takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the bar. The assist came from Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro.
6
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Jhon Lucumí from Bologna.
6
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
5
Update Update
Kieron Bowie from Verona committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Jhon Lucumí from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
4
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hellas Verona exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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