AZ vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard
FOR
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match has officially finished, with AZ securing a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Sittard. All the scoring occurred in the first half, as AZ entered the halftime break with a 2-0 advantage and maintained that lead until the final whistle. This outcome completely aligned with pre-match market expectations, which clearly identified AZ as the stronger team. Betting markets assigned the home side a dominant 73.7% probability of winning, leaving just a 16.9% chance for a draw and a minimal 9.4% likelihood for an away upset. By taking the win, a significant deviation level of 26.3% was recorded in favor of AZ. On the pitch, AZ controlled the overall tempo, holding 55% possession compared to Fortuna Sittard's 45%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the underlying shot quality. However, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with baseline expectations for the matchup. Finally, it was a disciplined contest from start to finish, with no red cards issued to alter the dynamics of the game.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: AZ showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
AZ
Fortuna Sittard
Team Power Ranking
i
74.46
61.73
AZ
Fortuna Sittard
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
AZ
Fortuna Sittard
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
AZ
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
AZ
⚠ Proxy
AZ
Fortuna Sittard
AZ
Fortuna Sittard
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
AZ
AZ
Fortuna Sittard
AZ
Fortuna Sittard
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:18+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
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Shakhtar Donetsk
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Kickoff: Thu, 9 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Away
Fortuna Sittard
vs
NAC Breda
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 10:15 AM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Match Commentary