Athletic Club vs Villarreal Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
La Liga
Villarreal
VIL
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Athletic Club and Villarreal is now finished, ending 1-2 in favor of the visitors. Villarreal took a commanding 2-0 lead by half-time and held on despite a second-half reply from the hosts, securing all three points in what proved a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Athletic Club had entered as clear favorites at 46.3% implied probability, while Villarreal sat at just 26.9%; the away victory therefore represented a 73.1% deviation that favored the underdogs. Athletic Club controlled 61% of possession to Villarreal’s 39% but were unable to translate that territorial advantage into enough clear chances. No xG data is available to measure underlying quality, yet the final result did not align with the pre-match projection. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the overall pattern of play, as Villarreal remained clinical on the counter and defended resolutely after the interval. Neither side received a red card, and no major disciplinary events altered the flow of the contest.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Villarreal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Movement
Changes since opening
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Team Power Ranking
i
22.68
26.73
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Athletic Club
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Athletic Club
⚠ Proxy
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Villarreal
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- VIL had peak pressure around 32'.
- VIL started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-13T02:02:10+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Athletic Club
vs
Osasuna
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Tue, 21 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: San Mamés Barria
Villarreal
vs
Real Oviedo
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Thu, 23 Apr - 7:30 PM
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Match Commentary