Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Emirates Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Arsenal ARS
Versus
Newcastle United NEW
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Arsenal host Newcastle United in Premier League (Regular Season) at Emirates Stadium. Domestically, Arsenal sit 1th in the table while Newcastle United are 14th. Power ranking favours Arsenal by 10.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Arsenal enjoys a 10.1-point power advantage over Newcastle United.
  • Form: Arsenal's form score of 29.06 surpasses Newcastle's 17.83.
  • Squad: Arsenal lead the Premier League in 1st place while Newcastle sit 14th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data remains unavailable for both teams.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with proxy metrics used and no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG variables are unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Projection split: Arsenal 63.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 21.4% (Δ+0%) | Newcastle United 15% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: L
Everton Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: W
Chelsea Rank: W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: L
Crystal Palace Rank: L
Sunderland Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: W
Everton Rank: L
35
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
35 - 9 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
63.68%
Draw
21.37%
Away Newcastle United
14.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.67
21.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
Newcastle United
Power Score
31.67
21.61
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal Newcastle United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 53 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
53 matches
Newcastle United NEW Away
Match Record
35
Wins
9
9
Draws
9
9
Losses
35
Goals
92
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
92
+58
Goal Difference
-58
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:08:27+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Raya Martin
1 D. Raya Martin
B. White
4 B. White
W. Saliba
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
P. Hincapié Reyna
5 P. Hincapié Reyna
M. Ødegaard
8 M. Ødegaard
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
D. Rice
41 D. Rice
C. Madueke
20 C. Madueke
V. Gyökeres
14 V. Gyökeres
E. Eze
10 E. Eze
A. Ramsdale
32 A. Ramsdale
L. Hall
3 L. Hall
S. Botman
4 S. Botman
M. Thiaw
12 M. Thiaw
V. Livramento
21 V. Livramento
J. Ramsey
41 J. Ramsey
S. Tonali
8 S. Tonali
L. Miley
67 L. Miley
H. Barnes
11 H. Barnes
W. Osula
18 W. Osula
A. Elanga
20 A. Elanga

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Emirates Stadium
Capacity
60704
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel Barrott
Tim Wood
Wade Smith
Steve Martin

Expected Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
6.76
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Centre Forward
6.77
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Attacker
6.79
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze Attacker
7.43
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Central Midfield
7.02
4
Ben White
Ben White Right Back
6.91
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Left Back
7.21
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Left Back
6.86
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard Central Midfield
6.97
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Right Back
6.89
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Central Midfield
7.36
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

32
Aaron Ramsdale
Aaron Ramsdale Goalkeeper
6.59
11
Harvey Barnes
Harvey Barnes Attacker
6.7
20
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga Attacker
6.62
18
William Osula
William Osula Centre Forward
6.68
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Right Back
6.98
21
Tino Livramento
Tino Livramento Right Back
6.7
8
Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali Central Midfield
6.94
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey Central Midfield
6.64
67
Lewis Miley
Lewis Miley Central Midfield
6.99
3
Lewis Hall
Lewis Hall Left Back
6.9
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Left Back
6.89

CONCLUSION

Arsenal's top-table position, superior power and form scores position them to dominate this home clash against a struggling Newcastle. The 10.1-point edge suggests control in possession and chance creation, though the Magpies' defensive setup may frustrate early breakthroughs. Without detailed set-piece or efficiency insights, Arsenal's overall structure should prevail, likely securing a comfortable victory. Newcastle need sharp transitions to compete, but projections favor the hosts decisively at 63.7%. Expect a professional display from Arsenal to widen the gap.

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