Anderlecht vs Gent Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Lotto Park Sun, 12 Apr - 4:30 PM
Pro League
Anderlecht ADL
3 Winner 1
Gent GNT
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 2 Championship Round
Yari Verschaeren - 79'
Tristan Degreef - 90+3'
Adriano Bertaccini - 90+6'
Goal
|
Goal
Wilfried Kanga - 22' (P)

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Anderlecht recording a 3-1 victory over Gent at full time. Trailing 0-1 at halftime, the home side responded strongly after the break to overturn the deficit and secure the win. Anderlecht entered the fixture as overwhelming favorites, and the outcome reflected minimal deviation from pre-match expectations. The result stayed in line with the projection that favored them heavily, as the stronger team delivered precisely as anticipated. Anderlecht controlled the game with 65 percent possession against Gent’s 35 percent, though expected goals data was unavailable for further insight. The efficiency shift remained in line with expectations throughout, and the final score aligned fully with the pre-match projection. No red cards were issued, and no major disciplinary events altered the flow, allowing Anderlecht to convert their territorial dominance into a straightforward success.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Anderlecht showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Visser
L. Visser
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
E. Lambrechts
E. Lambrechts
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
J. De Weirdt
J. De Weirdt
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
R. Wyns
R. Wyns
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Anderlecht J. Taravel
J. Taravel
VS
Gent R. Demil
R. Demil
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: L
Cercle Brugge Rank: L
Mechelen Rank: L
Club Brugge Rank: D
OH Leuven Rank: W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mechelen Rank: D
Dender Rank: W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
Mechelen Rank: W
Genk Rank: L
Cercle Brugge Rank: L
28
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
28 - 19 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Anderlecht
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Gent
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.8
22.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Anderlecht
Gent
Power Score
27.8
22.6
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Gent — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Anderlecht Gent

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Anderlecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gent

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Anderlecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gent
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.31
38.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.29
27.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Anderlecht -0.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Gent +0.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Gent
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Anderlecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gent
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Anderlecht Gent
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Anderlecht Gent
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Gent
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Anderlecht
vs
Gent
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Anderlecht Gent
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Anderlecht 0.27
Gent 0.43
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Anderlecht Gent
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Anderlecht 0.04
Gent 0.05
Anderlecht
Gent
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNT had peak pressure around 23'.
  • GNT started the game with stronger pressure.
ADL Pressure GNT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNT reached the top pressure at 23' (93.89).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Anderlecht ADL Home
60 matches
Gent GNT Away
Match Record
28
Wins
13
19
Draws
19
13
Losses
28
Goals
97
Goals Scored
58
58
Goals Conceded
97
+39
Goal Difference
-39
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:09:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
J. Heekeren
Germany
32 J. Heekeren
A. Maamar
Belgium
79 A. Maamar
M. Kana
Belgium
55 M. Kana
M. Diarra
Mali
93 M. Diarra
L. Augustinsson
Sweden
6 L. Augustinsson
N. Saliba
Canada
13 N. Saliba
E. Llansana
Substitution
Netherlands
24 E. Llansana
M. Stroeykens
Substitution
Belgium
29 M. Stroeykens
N. De Cat
Substitution
74 N. De Cat
T. Hazard
Belgium
11 T. Hazard
M. Cvetković
Substitution
Serbia
9 M. Cvetković
D. Roef
Belgium
33 D. Roef
S. Van der Heyden
Belgium
44 S. Van der Heyden
M. Volckaert
Belgium
57 M. Volckaert
D. Hashioka
Japan
4 D. Hashioka
T. Alves Araújo
Portugal
20 T. Alves Araújo
L. da Silva Lopes
Portugal
22 L. da Silva Lopes
T. De Vlieger
Belgium
27 T. De Vlieger
M. Skóraś
Substitution
Poland
8 M. Skóraś
H. Hong
Substitution
South Korea
24 H. Hong
A. Kanga
Substitution
France
7 A. Kanga
M. Dean
Substitution
England
21 M. Dean

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Championship Round
Stadium
Lotto Park
Capacity
21500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lawrence Visser
Erik Lambrechts
Jo De Weirdt
Ruben Wyns

Statistics

Possession
ADL
62%
GNT
38%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 4
1 Shots 4
55 Dangerous attacks 28
65 Possession 35
4 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

25 Throwins 7
6 Goal Kicks 6
12 Dribble Attempts 11
9 Successful Dribbles 5
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 4
2 Hit Woodwork 1
10 Goal Attempts 10
85 Ball Safe 75
2 Injuries 3

Attacking

120 Attacks 71
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 70
50 Long Passes 70
18 Successful Long Passes 23
595 Passes 324
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
496 Successful Passes 226
6 Key Passes 8

Defensive

5 Interceptions 16
13 Tackles 14
5 Saves 4

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

32
Justin Heekeren
Justin Heekeren Goalkeeper
6
Ludwig Augustinsson
Ludwig Augustinsson Defender
55
Marco Kana
Marco Kana Defender
79
Ali Maamar
Ali Maamar Defender
93
Moussa Diarra
Moussa Diarra Defender
11
Thorgan Hazard
Thorgan Hazard Midfielder
13
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Nathan-Dylan Saliba Midfielder
24
Enric Llansana
Enric Llansana Midfielder
77
Coba da Costa
Coba da Costa
Attacker68'
29
Mario Stroeykens
Mario Stroeykens Midfielder
83
Tristan Degreef
Tristan Degreef
Midfielder67'
74
Nathan De Cat
Nathan De Cat Midfielder
10
Yari Verschaeren
Yari Verschaeren
Midfielder43'
9
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Mihajlo Cvetkovic Attacker
91
Adriano Bertaccini
Adriano Bertaccini
Attacker89'
Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

33
Davy Roef
Davy Roef Goalkeeper
4
Daiki Hashioka
Daiki Hashioka Defender
44
Siebe Van der Heyden
Siebe Van der Heyden Defender
57
Matties Volckaert
Matties Volckaert Defender
8
Michal Skoras
Michal Skoras Midfielder
29
Jean-Kévin Duverne
Jean-Kévin Duverne
Defender88'
20
Tiago Araújo
Tiago Araújo Midfielder
22
Leonardo Lopes
Leonardo Lopes Midfielder
27
Tibe De Vlieger
Tibe De Vlieger Midfielder
7
Wilfried Kanga
Wilfried Kanga Attacker
75
Ibrahima Cissé
Ibrahima Cissé
Attacker88'
21
Max Dean
Max Dean Attacker
45
Hyllarion Goore
Hyllarion Goore
Attacker80'
24
Hyun-seok Hong
Hyun-seok Hong Attacker
37
Abdelkahar Kadri
Abdelkahar Kadri
Midfielder59'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adriano Bertaccini
3rd Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Adriano Bertaccini
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+6'
Event
Tristan Degreef
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+3'
Event
Adriano Bertaccini → Mihajlo Cvetkovic
8th Substitution
89'
88'
Event
Ibrahima Cissé → Wilfried Kanga
6th Substitution
88'
Event
Jean-Kévin Duverne → Michal Skoras
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Hyllarion Goore → Max Dean
5th Substitution
Event
Yari Verschaeren
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
79'
78'
Event
Siebe Van der Heyden
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Coba da Costa → Enric Llansana
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Tristan Degreef → Mario Stroeykens
3rd Substitution
67'
59'
Event
Abdelkahar Kadri → Hyun-seok Hong
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Yari Verschaeren → Nathan De Cat
1st Substitution
43'
37'
Event
Michal Skoras
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
Event
Wilfried Kanga
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
20'
Event
Tiago Araújo
Penalty awarded

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Anderlecht exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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