Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Lotto Park Sun, 22 Mar - 5:30 PM
Pro League
Anderlecht ADL
2 Winner 3
Cercle Brugge CBR
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Mihajlo Cvetkovic - 25'
Thorgan Hazard - 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Edan Diop - 10'
Pieter Gerkens - 28'
Emmanuel Kakou - 35'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with Anderlecht securing a 1-0 victory over Cercle Brugge. Coming into the fixture, the pre-match market favored the home side with a 45.4% win probability, compared to a 28.3% chance for the visitors and a 26.3% likelihood of a draw. Ultimately, the result produced a significant deviation of 54.6% in favor of Anderlecht, ensuring the final outcome was fully aligned with pre-match market expectations. Anderlecht controlled the tempo throughout the contest, dominating the ball with 71% possession while limiting Cercle Brugge to just 29%. The underlying metrics supported the hosts' victory, meaning the outcome was entirely consistent with expected goals. Anderlecht generated 2.13 xG to Cercle Brugge's 1.71 xG. In front of the net, the overall efficiency shift between the two sides was evaluated as being strictly in line with standard performance markers.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Anderlecht showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Anderlecht J. Taravel
J. Taravel
VS
Cercle Brugge O. Cinel
O. Cinel
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mechelen Rank: 70 L
Club Brugge Rank: 83 D
OH Leuven Rank: 67 W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 W
La Louvière Rank: 68 D
Genk Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
La Louvière Rank: 66 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 76 L
Dender Rank: 61 D
Gent Rank: 73 W
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 70 W
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Anderlecht
45.42%
Draw
26.29%
Away Cercle Brugge
28.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.09
67.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Anderlecht
Cercle Brugge
Power Score
73.09
67.26
League Position
6
15
Global Rank
143
269

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Cercle Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Anderlecht Cercle Brugge

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Anderlecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cercle Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Anderlecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.03
54.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
54.14
28.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Anderlecht -2.30 Efficiency Index
vs
Cercle Brugge +2.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Cercle Brugge
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Anderlecht
vs
Cercle Brugge
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Anderlecht Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Anderlecht Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Anderlecht
Cercle Brugge
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Anderlecht ADL Home
37 matches
Cercle Brugge CBR Away
Match Record
27
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
27
Goals
75
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
75
+50
Goal Difference
-50
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
C. Coosemans
Belgium
26 (C) C. Coosemans
K. Sardella
Belgium
54 K. Sardella
M. Ilić
Substitution
Serbia
15 M. Ilić
M. Diarra
Mali
93 M. Diarra
L. Augustinsson
Sweden
6 L. Augustinsson
A. Tajaouart
Substitution
Belgium
78 A. Tajaouart
N. De Cat
74 N. De Cat
T. Degreef
Substitution
Belgium
83 T. Degreef
M. Stroeykens
Substitution
Belgium
29 M. Stroeykens
M. Cvetković
Serbia
9 M. Cvetković
T. Hazard
Belgium
11 T. Hazard
W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
Brazil
1 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
V. Konaté
Substitution
Ivory Coast
12 V. Konaté
G. Kondo
France
24 G. Kondo
E. Kakou
5 E. Kakou
F. Jacinto Nazinho
Portugal
20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
H. Van der Bruggen
Substitution
Belgium
28 (C) H. Van der Bruggen
P. Gerkens
Belgium
18 P. Gerkens
G. Magnée
Belgium
15 G. Magnée
E. Diop
France
37 E. Diop
O. Diakité
Substitution
Ivory Coast
10 O. Diakité
D. Vanzeir
Substitution
Belgium
13 D. Vanzeir

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Lotto Park
Capacity
21500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Simon Bourdeaud'hui
Martijn Tiesters
K. Clerkx
Jonas Van Dyck

Statistics

Possession
ADL
66%
CBR
34%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
5 Big Chances Created 4
16 Shots 14
78 Dangerous attacks 34
71 Possession 29
8 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
55 Ball Safe 51
21 Dribble Attempts 16
7 Goal Kicks 7
16 Successful Headers 16
12 Successful Dribbles 7
1 Hit Woodwork 1
26 Throwins 15
4 Goal Attempts 7
4 Substitutions 4
2 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

150 Attacks 66
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 71
644 Passes 250
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
21 Successful Long Passes 15
9 Key Passes 8
561 Successful Passes 178
43 Long Passes 48

Defensive

18 Tackles 20
7 Interceptions 13
2 Saves 5

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 25
4 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

13 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

26
Colin Coosemans
Colin Coosemans (C) Goalkeeper
6.13
6
Ludwig Augustinsson
Ludwig Augustinsson Defender
6.71
15
Mihajlo Ilić
Mihajlo Ilić Defender
7.12
23
Mats Rits
Mats Rits
Midfielder77'
6.57
54
Killian Sardella
Killian Sardella Defender
6.86
93
Moussa Diarra
Moussa Diarra Defender
6.63
9
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Mihajlo Cvetkovic Midfielder
6.98
29
Mario Stroeykens
Mario Stroeykens Midfielder
6.45
10
Yari Verschaeren
Yari Verschaeren
Midfielder77'
6.58
74
Nathan De Cat
Nathan De Cat Midfielder
6.79
78
Anas Tajaouart
Anas Tajaouart Midfielder
6.33
99
Ibrahim Kanaté
Ibrahim Kanaté
Midfielder46'
6.58
83
Tristan Degreef
Tristan Degreef Midfielder
6.23
79
Ali Maamar
Ali Maamar
Defender89'
6.75
11
Thorgan Hazard
Thorgan Hazard Attacker
8.74
Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

1
Warleson
Warleson Goalkeeper
7.36
5
Emmanuel Kakou
Emmanuel Kakou Defender
7.84
12
Valy Konaté
Valy Konaté Defender
7.24
2
Ibrahim Diakité
Ibrahim Diakité
Defender90'
24
Geoffrey Kondo
Geoffrey Kondo Defender
6.67
15
Gary Magnée
Gary Magnée Midfielder
7.47
18
Pieter Gerkens
Pieter Gerkens Midfielder
7.2
20
Nazinho
Nazinho Midfielder
6.84
28
Hannes Van Der Bruggen
Hannes Van Der Bruggen (C) Midfielder
7.2
19
Ibrahima Diaby
Ibrahima Diaby
Midfielder85'
6.51
10
Oumar Diakité
Oumar Diakité Attacker
6.46
9
Steve Ngoura
Steve Ngoura
Attacker57'
6.54
13
Dante Vanzeir
Dante Vanzeir Attacker
6.59
6
Lawrence Agyekum
Lawrence Agyekum
Midfielder57'
6.44
37
Edan Diop
Edan Diop Attacker
7.61

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Thorgan Hazard
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
90+1'
90'
Event
Ibrahim Diakité → Valy Konaté
8th Substitution
Event
Ali Maamar → Tristan Degreef
7th Substitution
89'
85'
Event
Ibrahima Diaby → Hannes Van Der Bruggen
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Edan Diop
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Yari Verschaeren → Mario Stroeykens
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Mats Rits → Mihajlo Ilić
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Mihajlo Ilić
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
73'
57'
Event
Lawrence Agyekum → Dante Vanzeir
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Steve Ngoura → Oumar Diakité
3rd Substitution
53'
Event
Nazinho
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ibrahim Kanaté → Anas Tajaouart
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Emmanuel Kakou
Header / 4th Goal
28'
Event
Pieter Gerkens
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
25'
10'
Event
Edan Diop
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Anderlecht exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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