Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Liga Portugal
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Alverca and Casa Pia is finished, ending in a 3-1 victory for the home side. Alverca trailed 0-1 at halftime but produced a much-improved second-half display to overturn the deficit and secure the win. Pre-match forecasts had strongly indicated an Alverca success, and the final result showed only minimal deviation from those expectations, with the stronger team delivering as anticipated. Alverca controlled 60 percent possession to Casa Pia’s 40 percent, though no xG figures were available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with projections, and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match outlook. No red cards were shown to either side, allowing the contest to be decided strictly by on-field performance without disruptive sending-offs. Overall the result reinforced Alverca’s status as the dominant outfit on the day.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Alverca showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Alverca
Casa Pia
Team Power Ranking
i
20.42
19.29
Alverca
Casa Pia
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Alverca
Casa Pia
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Alverca
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Alverca
⚠ Proxy
Alverca
Casa Pia
Alverca
Casa Pia
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Alverca
Alverca
Casa Pia
Alverca
Casa Pia
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Alverca had peak pressure around 68'.
- Casa Pia started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:06:37+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Alverca
vs
Nacional
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 2:30 PM
Venue: Estádio da Madeira
Casa Pia
vs
Santa Clara
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Estádio Pina Manique
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Match Commentary